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2014 Recaps: Is Josh Harrison the Future at Third Base For the Pirates?

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For the past few years, the third base recap has been a countdown to nothing. More specifically, it has been a countdown to when Pedro Alvarez would leave the Pittsburgh Pirates, at which point the Pirates had no internal replacements. After the 2014 season, the Pirates are now in a situation where they not only have a replacement at third base for Alvarez, but also could deal Alvarez two years before he’s eligible for free agency.

The 2014 season started with Alvarez at third base. However, he eventually fell out of favor. He experienced what could be described as a case of the yips, with 25 errors, and most of those being throwing errors. Many of the throwing errors came on routine plays.

Alvarez has dealt with errors throughout his career. He had 27 errors in each of the last two seasons, although that came in 1328 innings and 1273 innings. This year he had 25 in 823 innings, which is a more alarming rate. The previous two years could have been overlooked because of his offense, with a combined .777 OPS. The offense didn’t make up for the errors this year, with a .717 OPS.

The replacement for Alvarez came from one of the most unlikely places. Josh Harrison entered the season with a combined .648 OPS in 575 plate appearances. At the start of the season, he wasn’t even considered a great option for the bench. But struggles from Travis Snider in right field allowed Harrison the chance for more playing time, and to break out early in the season.

The struggles from Alvarez continued, and Harrison continued his breakout. By the end of June, Harrison was getting time at third base. He was getting more starts at the position by the end of July. And by the second week of August, he was the new third baseman.

Harrison ended up being everything you’d want from a third baseman. He had an .837 OPS this year, while also providing strong defense. The combination led him to post the fifth best WAR out of 24 qualified third baseman in baseball this year. He was the second best third baseman in the National League, behind Anthony Rendon.

Alvarez hit a lot of home runs in 2012-13, but even with all of that power, his offense wasn’t as good as Harrison’s in 2014. His defense couldn’t come close to the defense that Harrison put up this year. As a result, the Pirates might have found their third baseman of the future.

The Future

There are two words of caution with Harrison. First, there’s the fact that Harrison has more plate appearances where he looked like a bench player (575) versus plate appearances where he looked like a star player (550). To expect him to only be like his 2014 self going forward is too optimistic. I think the defense can be expected, but the expectations for the offense should be tempered.

As for long-term expectations, Harrison is only under team control for the next three seasons. That’s one more season than Alvarez. So the idea that third base is solved for the long-term isn’t exactly fitting, since the Pirates are basically in the same situation as they were in before, just with an extra year to find a long-term replacement.

Harrison seems more likely to be an extension candidate, or a guy who could return to Pittsburgh as a free agent. Alvarez is a Scott Boras client, and those guys usually go to free agency right away, and don’t do pre-FA extensions. So the Pirates might be able to keep Harrison around for longer than the next three years, allowing them more time to develop someone from within.

That development still isn’t going well. Last year I suggested that they could move Wyatt Mathisen to third base, and that’s something they did in the Spring. But to call Mathisen the third baseman of the future is way too premature, since he had just a .704 OPS in Low-A, and has only spent one season at the position.

Mathisen is the only third base option in the minor league system right now. Dan Gamache and Eric Wood both look like bench options, if they make the majors. Chase Simpson had a good season in the NYPL, but it’s too early to tell if he can hit at the upper levels, or even stick at third base at all.

The idea of Neil Walker playing third base gets brought up a lot, although it doesn’t look like a good idea. For one, Walker hasn’t played the position in years, and there’s no telling whether he would be good defensively at the spot at this point in his career. Harrison has already shown good defense at the position, even when he wasn’t hitting. There’s also the fact that Walker is making a lot of money due to being paid like an above average second baseman. As a third baseman, even with good defense, he would be average at best, and ultimately over-paid for his production at another position.

It’s too soon to say whether Harrison will work out and will remain the best option the Pirates have. After the 2014 season that he had, there’s no way that the Pirates can’t give him a shot. When you become the fifth most valuable third baseman in the league, it buys you a chance to prove that those results weren’t a fluke.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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