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MLBTR Releases 2014-15 Free Agent Predictions

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Every year, MLB Trade Rumors releases free agent predictions at the start of the off-season. The predictions are in no way accurate, and shouldn’t be seen as anything more than entertainment. For example, last year they had A.J. Burnett and Marlon Byrd returning to Pittsburgh, along with Carlos Beltran, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta, Josh Johnson, and Tim Hudson as possibilities. Obviously none of those guys ended up playing for the Pirates.

The true value of the predictions come in the descriptions, where we can find out what positions the Pirates could be looking at, and what teams could be interested in certain players. For the Pirates, this means focusing on which teams could be contenders for Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, and Edinson Volquez, while also focusing on who else the Pirates are linked to. MLBTR released the 2014-15 predictions last night, allowing us to focus on what could be in store for those players as free agency is about to begin.

MLBTR has Martin going to the Cubs, while mentioning that the Dodgers could also get involved. The presence of those two big market teams could make it hard for the Pirates to re-sign Martin. If the price is only four years and $60 M, then that’s something the Pirates should spend. But if the Cubs or Dodgers push it beyond that price, it would be hard for the Pirates to match that price.

Francisco Liriano is projected to go to the Red Sox, with MLBTR saying he could be seeking a four-year deal. Tomorrow is the deadline to extend a qualifying offer. The Pirates will extend one to Russell Martin, although we don’t know if they will make the same offer to Liriano. I believe they should, simply because there’s no way he will accept the offer. And if he really is seeking a four-year deal, then he’s not going to settle for one year without testing the market, especially coming off two of the best years in his career.

Edinson Volquez is the final Pirates’ free agent on the list, and is projected to go to the Braves. Several other teams are mentioned as possibilities, not including the Pirates. MLBTR says he’s in line for a two or three-year deal. I think the Pirates should be involved if the price is in the $8-10 M range per year.

As for players the Pirates are connected to, they only had one free agent prediction, and that was Brandon McCarthy. He would be a good addition to the rotation. I didn’t mention him in any of my reclamation project articles because he’s not a reclamation project. He’s coming off a year where he posted a 4.05 ERA in 200 innings, although his 2.87 xFIP suggested he should have been much better. That secret might already be out, since he posted a 2.89 ERA and a 2.85 xFIP after joining the Yankees.

I’d be a bit surprised if the Pirates did end up with McCarthy, since they typically go after pitchers who are buy-low candidates. They have gone after Edwin Jackson and Jorge de la Rosa in the past on multi-year deals, but fell short. It wasn’t a bad thing that those deals didn’t work out, since those pitchers struggled in their long-term deals.

MLBTR also connected the Pirates to Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel, but in a “the Pirates are looking for pitching, so this makes sense” way. The interesting thing is the connection to Adam LaRoche. He’s now a free agent after the Washington Nationals declined a $15 M option. The Pirates are picking from a group of bad options at first base, with Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, and Pedro Alvarez coming off down seasons. LaRoche wouldn’t be a bad alternative, and might end up costing nearly the same amount as a platoon of Alvarez and Sanchez.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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