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FanGraphs Releases the Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 ZiPS Projections

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FanGraphs has released the 2015 ZiPS projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are a lot of projection systems out there, but ZiPS is one of the most popular ones, and also one of the better systems. For tonight’s First Pitch, I’ll be doing some analysis using these figures. For now, here is a quick rundown of what was said in the article.

**Andrew McCutchen is projected to be one of the best players in the game this year. Related story: the sky is blue.

**ZiPS has Jung Ho Kang projected for a 1.5 WAR over 502 PA. Jordy Mercer ranks higher at 1.9 WAR over 504 PA. The biggest projected issue for Kang is his potential strikeout rate, which actually rates worse than the projected rate for Pedro Alvarez.

**Carson Cistulli noted that the Pirates pitchers had the second lowest WAR in the majors last year, but that ZiPS projects a better outcome this year. Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett are projected to combine for a WAR that would match the entire pitching staff last year.

**I thought it was interesting that Keon Broxton was projected for the best WAR (0.9 in 483 PA) of all rookie-eligible players, aside from Kang. He tied with Alen Hanson, although Hanson had more projected plate appearances to get his WAR. He was also ahead of Andrew Lambo, Jose Tabata, Corey Hart, Jaff Decker, Mel Rojas, and anyone else competing for the outfield bench role. I don’t necessarily agree with this, as we have Broxton ranked lower than most of these guys, including Rojas. I think he’s got a similar upside and similar tools to Rojas, which means he could be a bench outfielder in the majors. My guess is that he’s getting extra credit in these projections for posting great numbers in Double-A, and not being challenged by Triple-A like Rojas was for half a season.

**Speaking of the bench spot, ZiPS gave Travis Snider an 0.4 WAR with the Orioles. Lambo is at 0.5. So far, every projection system has them either the same, or Lambo ahead of Snider.

**ZiPS projects a combined 13.2 WAR for the Pirates’ starting outfielders (McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco). To put that in perspective, last year only five teams had a better WAR from all of their outfielders. The Pirates ranked second in the league last year, and first in the NL, so this projection shouldn’t be a surprise.

**This is the second year in a row that Starling Marte drew a Matt Kemp comparison. Meanwhile, Gregory Polanco went from Johnny Damon last year, to Milton Bradley this year. Josh Harrison got a Joe Randa comp, which means that years from now, Dave Littlefield will sign him in his final years to start over that year’s batting champ. Willy Garcia got a Rob Deer comp, which I think is the best-case scenario if he can improve his walks. Garcia has some of the best raw power in the system. On the pitching side, Gerrit Cole got a Kevin Millwood comp, and Tyler Glasnow got an A.J. Burnett comp.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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