The prospect ranking season has been going on for some time now, with every outlet releasing some kind of top prospect list over the last few weeks. Those include team top ten lists, top players by positions, and the biggest ones, the top 100 lists. Last week saw two of the big top 100 lists released, with Keith Law and MLB.com both publishing their rankings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with five prospects in Law’s list, and led the majors with seven prospects in the MLB.com list. They also had Nick Kingham just outside the top 100 in Law’s rankings.
Law also released his farm system rankings, putting the Pittsburgh Pirates at number seven overall. That’s a bit of a drop from where they were heading into the 2014 season, when they were ranked as one of the top three systems by almost every outlet.
The fact that the Pirates continue to have so many of the game’s top prospects is a good sign, especially when you consider the fact that they have graduated a top 20 prospect in each of the last three years, with Starling Marte in 2012, Gerrit Cole in 2013, and Gregory Polanco in 2014. Tyler Glasnow seems to be their consensus top 20 prospect this year, and doesn’t project to graduate to the majors, so he should be around next year. However, Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham are two of the top prospects who could lose prospect eligibility by the end of the 2015 season.
As for the system, they lost Polanco last year, and saw a ton of injuries to pretty much all of their top prospects, which limited progression and potential breakouts. They have also been buyers in the last two years, trading prospects like Dilson Herrera, Vic Black, Blake Taylor, and more recently Buddy Borden and Joely Rodriguez. The fact that they’re still considered a top ten system reflects the amount of talent they’ve been able to build up, even when they were a top three system last year.
But what about going forward? Kingham and Taillon could graduate from prospect status this year, along with Alen Hanson. Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow could join them in the majors next year. And if the Pirates continue to be contenders, that means they’ll be trading away prospects, picking low in the draft, and subject to low bonus pools on the international market.
The most important thing is how the Pirates do at the major league level, and they’re certainly set up to be a contender for several years to come. Now they face a new challenge of trying to keep the farm system churning out talent, despite the hurdles mentioned above.
One way to do this is to continue their approach from last year’s draft, which isn’t really a new approach for the Pirates at all. The pick of Cole Tucker is largely going to reflect on their scouting abilities, and the success of that pick is up in the air, since we don’t have many success stories to base it on. The picks of prep pitchers like Mitch Keller, Trey Supak, and Gage Hinsz are a little easier to project, since the Pirates have had a lot of success in this area. They took mid-round picks like Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham and turned them into some of the top prospects in the game. They’ve got a great coaching staff, with a lot of good results on the pitching side of things from the lower levels to the majors. As long as they continue taking highly projectable prep pitchers, they should continue having this success.
Another way to re-stock the farm system is to trade away talent that is nearing free agency, and reload the lower levels with high-upside guys. This should only be done when they have a viable replacement ready to take over in the majors. We saw this last week, when they traded Travis Snider for Stephen Tarpley — a lefty who can hit the mid-90s with his fastball — and a player to be named later. Snider will be replaced by Andrew Lambo, who compares favorably to Snider, showing no big signs of drop off in talent for 2015.
The decisions going forward might be a bit more difficult. Do they trade Neil Walker at the end of 2015 if Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, and either Jung Ho Kang or Alen Hanson are making up a solid infield? What do they do in the outfield if Austin Meadows lives up to his potential, and they have Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco performing like the best outfield in baseball? Should they eventually trade Mark Melancon if someone like John Holdzkom steps up as a closer candidate?
All of these scenarios are good problems to have, because they show an excess in talent. But they don’t lead to easy decisions. Look at the negative reaction to the Snider deal, and that was just a bench player. Imagine if Kang or Hanson is ready to take over at second base and they trade Walker.
So what happens if the Pirates don’t do this? Winning now is important, but they can’t disregard the future. With the way major league baseball is set up, if you aren’t a large market team, and you don’t keep a farm system churning out talent, then you’re going to go into a tough rebuilding period. The Brewers right now are one example of what happens when you focus too much on the present and disregard the future.
The Pirates are a contender right now. The prospects they have that are making top 100 lists will only strengthen their chances to contend over the next few years, and for several years beyond that. In the long-term, they’ll need to show that they can continue building a strong farm system while being a contender, so that they can remain a contender. So far it looks like they’re making some good decisions to focus on that long-term goal, without taking away from the most important thing: contending right now.
**Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 Top Prospects: #5 – Reese McGuire. We wrap up the top five prospects this week. If you’ve enjoyed the prospect countdown, buy a copy of the 2015 Prospect Guide, which has our entire top 50, plus profiles on 200+ prospects in the system.
**The Pirates Finally Have a Third Base Prospect in Wyatt Mathisen. All about his transition to third base last year, which led to better offense and better health.
The latest prospect rankings:
**Nick Kingham Just Misses Top 100, Tyler Glasnow’s Fastball Ranks Near the Top
**Seven Pirates In MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects List
Some transactions from over the weekend:
**Pirates Purchase Independent League Catcher
**Pirates Sign Josh Wall to Minor League Deal With Spring Training Invite
**Pirates Sign Chris Volstad to Minor League Deal
If you missed it on Friday:
**Will the Pirates See Any Drop Off Going From Travis Snider to Andrew Lambo?
