After a pretty horrible start tonight, Jeff Locke sits with a 5.34 ERA on the season. And as usual in his career, the xFIP tells a completely different story, with a 4.03 mark.
When an xFIP is higher than the ERA, you usually assume it’s good fortune. For example, take Locke’s first half in 2013. He had a 2.15 ERA, but a 4.21 xFIP. The reason for the difference? He had just a .228 BABIP and an 83.3% strand rate, which were both extremely fortunate. Either Locke figured out how to be the hardest starter to hit in the majors, and figured out how to step up his game only with men on base, or he was benefitting from good results over a small sample size that wouldn’t continue going forward.
As we know now, Locke was benefitting from good fortune. But it’s not as simple to say that he’s just unlucky when the xFIP is lower than the ERA. There could be something else leading to his poor numbers. Let’s take a look at some of those stats, compared to last year, when he had a 3.91 ERA and a 3.90 xFIP, which are both similar to this year’s xFIP.
Looking at the batted ball data, Locke is showing similar numbers as his 2014 season. He has a 51.3% ground ball rate and a 20.5% line drive rate, which are both about the same as last year. The only notable change is that he has a 25.2% soft hit rate, up from 20.7% last year. He has a 28.9% hard hit rate, which was the same as last year.
Locke had a .278 BABIP last season, which is close to his career line of .288. So far this season he has a .333 BABIP, which is a big reason for his inflated ERA. But looking at the numbers, he isn’t showing any signs of why this number should be elevated. He’s not allowing any more line drives than last year, and he’s not allowing an increase of hard hit balls, while actually seeing a decrease in soft hits. This isn’t a recipe that sees a 50 point jump in BABIP.
There have been mixed results from Locke so far this season. He’s had a few gems and a few disasters, with tonight falling in the latter category. Most of his starts have been of the “quality start” variety, which is enough to put the Pirates in position to win when this offense is clicking. Going forward, his xFIP looks like a better bet than his ERA, since there’s no sign that his high BABIP is due to a different approach.
If you look at the league, the NL averages a 3.81 xFIP from starting pitchers. Locke’s numbers are below that, but most likely better than what most teams are getting from their fifth starters. The problem is that the Pirates are getting fantastic results from every other position in the rotation, which means the standards are raised for Locke. Being a good number five starter doesn’t satisfy people who are seeing Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett, and Francisco Liriano dominating often. So there will most likely be calls to replace Locke, even if he does see his ERA get closer to his xFIP.
The problem with replacing him is that there aren’t many good replacement options. This isn’t really a bad thing. It’s just a common thing. Locke should be expected to perform closer to his 4.07 xFIP going forward. Most teams don’t have guys who are better than that stashed away in Triple-A. The Pirates have some interesting options, but at best, they would be expected for the same level of production as Locke’s xFIP. Those options include Casey Sadler, Clayton Richard, and Adrian Sampson. Sadler profiles as a number five starter, Richard has had some command issues lately, and Sampson would be making his pro debut. Expecting those guys to perform better than Locke’s xFIP is probably asking too much.
The alternative here is to make a trade, although that might not be necessary. Even with Locke, and with Worley’s numbers as well, the Pirates have had some of the best starting pitching results in baseball this year. Not every pitcher has to perform like a top of the rotation guy. The Pirates have room to upgrade on Locke, and they’ve got the prospects to get an upgrade. But I don’t think the value of that short-term upgrade would match the amount of talent they’d have to give up in the long-term, and the potential hit in value they’d see with that talent leaving.
Basically, the Pirates would hurt their long-term future much more than they’d help themselves in the short-term. If that’s ever a consideration, it would only make sense if the team was an upgrade over Locke away from winning it all. Their pitching looks to be in a great place right now, even without Locke. The offense came around last month. And Locke’s advanced metrics suggest he will also come around soon, putting up the numbers you’d see from a solid fourth starter, only in the number five spot for the Pirates. That’s not bad, and it would be hard for the Pirates to upgrade on that without sacrificing too much of their future.
**Prospect Watch: Hanson Finishes Strong Month, Ramirez Continues Streak
**Morton Shows Prime Form Early in Return
**John Holdzkom Closes in on Return
**Prospect Reports: Sampson, Broxton, Ramirez, Brault, Tarpley, Tucker
