If you want, you can find a lot of problems with the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. You can look at certain spots in the rotation which don’t feature an ace. You can look at the struggles from Aramis Ramirez since being acquired in a trade. You can even go back to certain points of the year and focus on when the bullpen was struggling, or when Gregory Polanco wasn’t hitting, or any other thing that was going poorly at the time.
Every team has problems, and the Pirates are no exception. But their one problem all year has been simple: The Cardinals have been too good.
After losing their second straight game to the Cardinals, the Pirates have dropped to 65-46 and seven games back in the NL Central. That second number is a bit misleading, as it just ignores how ridiculously good the Cardinals have been. To give some perspective on how good the Pirates have been, let’s see how their record stands against the other two divisions in the NL.
In the East, the Pirates would be leading the division by 4.5 games over the New York Mets, who currently sit three games ahead of the Washington Nationals. Those are the only two teams with hopes of making the playoffs in the East.
The NL West is a bit more competitive, but the Pirates would still be winning the division right now by three games (not counting tonight’s matchup for the Dodgers). They would be leading San Francisco by six games. And for more perspective, Arizona is seven games out of first place in the West, and currently has a 56-57 record after losing to the Phillies tonight.
You could do the same with the AL East (four game lead) and the AL West (five game lead). The Pirates wouldn’t be in first place in the AL Central, but would be two games behind the Royals.
The Cardinals have been ridiculous this year, while the Pirates have consistently been one of the best teams in baseball. Their only problem is that the team ahead of them in the division has been the best in baseball. Sure, you could point out other problems they have. For example, consider the following:
**The Pirates have been without Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer since July 20th. Aramis Ramirez has done a horrible job filling in at third base in this time. Meanwhile, the team has gone 12-8 in this stretch.
**The starting pitching this month has been without A.J. Burnett, and has seen poor outings from Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole. J.A. Happ struggled in his first start, and Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke haven’t been great. Yet the xFIP of 3.42 (not counting tonight) ranks sixth in baseball and third in the NL. Granted, the 5.71 ERA is the fifth worst in baseball during this time, but even with those results the Pirates have gone 5-4, and the xFIP says this won’t continue.
**The Pirates’ fielding has ranked middle of the pack at best, and bottom third in some advanced metrics. This isn’t getting better lately, which might be a big reason why the Pirates’ starters are performing well below their advanced metrics.
But despite all of this, the Pirates remain a winning team, and one of the best teams in baseball. And if you look around the game, you’ll see why. Every team has problems, even the best teams. We saw that over the weekend. The Pirates just swept the Dodgers because, despite their endless amounts of money, the Dodgers have a horrible bullpen. And that’s not even considering the fact that they have 20 starts this year combined from Carlos Frias, Alex Wood, Brandon Beachy, Mat Latos, and Scott Baker, plus a total of 16 pitchers making at least one start.
The reason the Pirates keep winning, despite their flaws, is because baseball is a team sport. Sure, a lot of it boils down to individual battles and individual performances, but you need a lot of people performing well to win. What you don’t need is everyone performing well. You can still have a winning team with flaws. That’s why the Giants won the World Series last year with Travis Ishikawa as a starter throughout the playoffs and Jake Peavy bombing in almost every playoff start (the same thing happened with Boston and Peavy in 2013).
The problem is that the Pirates aren’t good enough this year to keep pace with the Cardinals. Don’t mistake that as a weakness for the Pirates or a shortcoming. Some of this is because the Cardinals are a really good team, but some of it also has to do with luck. The Cardinals rotation has a 3.51 xFIP and a 2.77 ERA. The Pirates rotation has a better xFIP at 3.44, but an ERA at 3.51. Once again, fielding might be a factor here, as the Cardinals rank 8th in Defensive Runs Saved (Pirates are 16th) and 9th in UZR (Pirates are 25th). But if fielding played this much of a role in the results, then the Pirates would have a much lower ERA on the season, as their fielding has been poor all year.
Then there’s the fact that the Pirates have been just as good as the Cardinals for several months. Since May 22nd, the Pirates have gone 47-24. During that same stretch, the Cardinals have gone 46-26. Both results are outstanding. Unfortunately, the Cardinals had a much stronger start to their year, which means they’re still way ahead of the Pirates, despite slightly better results from Pittsburgh over an almost three-month span.
Even after two straight losses to the Cardinals, the Pirates remain the third best team in baseball on the season. In any other division, there would be far less panic about every little problem on this team, and they’d be recognized as a strong team and a serious World Series contender. Unfortunately, the Pirates are in a division with the best team in baseball this year, which allows people to forget how good this team is, and ignore that they’ve been just as good as the Cardinals for three months.
Personally, I’m not worried about the Pirates, even after the last two games. I think it would be impossible for them to win the division without a big slump from the Cardinals (once again, unreal play by the Pirates the last three months, matched by the Cardinals every step of the way). They’ve got Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer returning soon, which should help the defense and the overall team. A.J. Burnett could also return within the next month, and I’d expect the pitching to perform closer to the xFIP numbers than what we’ve seen lately. And the offense has been heating up for some time, and doesn’t show signs of stopping.
I think the Pirates are bound for a Wild Card game once again, with a strong chance that this is hosted at PNC Park. I think they match up well there, considering they’ll have Gerrit Cole available, plus a much better offense than last year. You can’t change their slow start, which was hard to avoid, considering it was team-wide and included struggles from guys like Andrew McCutchen and Mark Melancon, who have been among the best at their positions since. You also can’t ask for more than what you’ve gotten in the last three months, without having totally unreasonable expectations.
At this point, the best approach would be ignoring the Cardinals, realizing that the Pirates are going to the Wild Card game (unless they drop a six game lead over the Giants in the final two months), and hoping that they maintain home field advantage over the Cubs in that game.
**Prospect Watch: Chad Kuhl Returns With Success in Shortened Outing. Good to see that he’s still pitching well, even if the Pirates are limiting his innings.
**Starling Marte Leaves With Left Hand Discomfort. This would not be a good thing if Marte goes down, although the Pirates could negate his loss when Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer return. Hopefully it’s not a serious issue.
**Tyler Glasnow Shows Some Improvements After Slow Start in Triple-A. Ryan Palencer with the report on Glasnow’s latest start.
**Glasnow Named Best EL Pitching Prospect, Bell Named Best Hitting Prospect. Generally it’s a good thing to have the top hitter and the top pitcher in a league.
**Morning Report: The End of the Line For a 2009 Draft Pick?
