The Pirates have been contenders during each of the last five seasons. Granted, the 2011 team was weak and only a contender because the division was also weak. The 2012 team couldn’t finish their season and make the playoffs. But the team kept getting stronger, and eventually made the playoffs three years in a row.
One of the big fears each year during this span was the idea that the window was closing for the Pirates, and that they wouldn’t be able to compete in the future. A lot of these fears hinged on the idea that Andrew McCutchen couldn’t keep repeating his MVP performances, and the team would see a decline (or eventually see their window closed when McCutchen left in the future).
As I noted today, McCutchen did see a decline in 2015. He was still one of the best players in the game, but he dropped to a 5.8 WAR, down from 6.9 in 2014, and way down from 8.4 in 2013. And despite that drop, the Pirates finished with their best season during this five-year span, winning 98 games. Sure, they lost in the playoffs, but the playoffs are random, which is why the Cubs were able to beat the Cardinals, and why the Mets are up 3-0 on the Cubs, despite both teams being ranked lower than their opponents.
The 2015 season should put the idea to rest that the Pirates are a team that relies on one star player to compete. It should also put to rest the idea that everything needs to go perfectly in order to contend. Aside from McCutchen seeing a drop in value, they also saw a drop with Starling Marte, saw Josh Harrison take a step back from his breakout year, saw key injuries to Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, Harrison, and A.J. Burnett, and yet they still won the second most games in baseball.
The Pirates also didn’t get much help from their farm system this year. That will be overblown into something it’s not — an idea that the Pirates have done a poor job with their farm system because they don’t graduate top 20 prospects every season. The reality is that the guys who would have graduated (Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham) were injured, thus preventing a call-up. Next year will see up to five of the top ten prospects in the system getting the call to the majors, which will certainly help. However, the Pirates managed fine this year without the prospects, and that’s probably due to the guys they’ve called up in previous years (Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, and Starling Marte combined for 11.3 WAR).
There were other things that went right which off-set some of the downfalls. Francisco Cervelli and Jung-ho Kang were two of the best moves by any team in the off-season. J.A. Happ was one of the best additions by any team at the trade deadline. And these are continued trends that the Pirates have shown each year — an ability to get value, even in markets where other teams are paying big prices.
I bring all of this up because you’re probably going to hear a lot about “windows” this off-season. A lot of that will be related to McCutchen only having three years remaining on his deal, but others will cite the same old arguments — the Pirates just won’t be good for some reason, the best players will regress while everyone else stays the same with no breakouts, and other NL Central teams will be adding talent and will surpass the Pirates.
The truth is that the Pirates are past the stage of needing an elite year from Andrew McCutchen in order to contend. They will have some players regress next year, but they’re also past the point where everything needs to go right in order to have a great season. And the Cubs can add pitching, the Cardinals can make improvements, and the Reds and Brewers can reload, but the Pirates will most likely continue finding value, all while adding some of the best ranked prospects in baseball throughout the 2016 season. Essentially, the key difference here is that the Cubs will spend a lot of money to get their improvements, while the Pirates will continue getting improvements at a lower cost.
Overall, it’s not going to be an easy road back to the playoffs, but the Pirates are no longer a team that needs that easy road in order to make the post-season, as we saw in 2015.
**2015 Center Field Recap: A New Andrew McCutchen and a Possible Future Without Him. A look at how McCutchen is still one of the best in the game, despite slipping in a few areas. Also, a look ahead to when the Pirates might be better off moving on from their current MVP.
**Orioles Claim Vance Worley From the Pirates. There was a lot of talk at the end of the year about how Worley was a better starter than Jeff Locke or Charlie Morton. That simply wasn’t true. Morton had a 3.87 xFIP this season, while Locke had a 3.94 xFIP. Meanwhile, Worley had a 4.57 xFIP in his time in the rotation, with his better numbers coming in the bullpen. He was a good depth option, but that was the extent of it for the 2015 Pirates’ rotation.
**First Pitch: Your Input is Needed For the Pirates Prospects Reader Survey. From last night, our annual survey, which has gotten a ton of responses, and has led to a few new ideas for the site. Keep the responses coming!
