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First Pitch: What Could the Pirates Have Done Different to Win the NL Central?

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The Pirates are wrapping up a pretty special season. They currently have 96 wins, with three games to go against the Cincinnati Reds, and three of their best pitchers going. They need any combination of two wins or Cubs losses this weekend to clinch home field in the Wild Card game for the third straight year. They have the second best record in baseball, and one of their best win totals in franchise history.

Yet the problem is that they’re in second place, all due to the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals are having a much better year, and are in the same division. I chalk this up to an unfortunate circumstance, rather than something the Pirates did wrong which could have avoided this situation. Before the season, if you would have said that the Pirates could win 98-99 games (assuming they win the series against St. Louis), then I doubt anyone would say “But what can they do to improve on that number?”

But I wanted to entertain that thought now by taking a look at their position-by-position WAR totals, just to see if there was a specific area where the team could have improved before the season, which might have allowed them to surpass the Cardinals. In the process, I found that their season was even more amazing, due to the high value moves that were made.

Catcher – 4.5 WAR, 2nd

Francisco Cervelli was a huge surprise, and one of the best catchers in baseball. His backup, Chris Stewart, was strong for a backup, and together they made up the second best group in the NL, behind the Giants. The Pirates were faced with the difficult task of replacing Russell Martin, and they somehow managed to get better production, while committing about $81 M less guaranteed money than Martin received.

First Base – 0.1 WAR, 11th

This is the biggest area where the Pirates might have been able to improve prior to the season, and the biggest area where they should try to improve heading into next year. Pedro Alvarez was almost replacement level due to his defense, despite having one of his better offensive seasons. Michael Morse did well and provided a big boost off the bench with an 0.5 WAR, and that boost off the bench was sorely needed, as we’ll get into later. The first base position represents a theme for the entire lineup, and that was poor defense.

Second Base – 3.3 WAR, 5th

This wasn’t all Neil Walker, as Josh Harrison brings a 1.0 WAR to this total. He’s double counted, as he also shows up with the same total at third base. The Pirates weren’t going to be improving over Walker at the start of the year, and the production they got was expected.

Shortstop – 3.8 WAR, 2nd

I’m going to mix the shortstop position with…

Third Base – 4.8 WAR, 3rd

I’m mixing these two because FanGraphs includes Jung-ho Kang in both lists. He had a great season rotating between the two positions, but it’s hard separating the values for either one. The Pirates had Aramis Ramirez and Josh Harrison at third base (0.8 combined WAR), and Jordy Mercer at shortstop (0.2 WAR). But while he was healthy, Kang played a huge role on the right side of the infield, giving the Pirates a star at one of these two positions on any given night.

Left Field – 2.1 WAR, 10th

The Pirates are hurt here due to the bench players, and not their starter. Starling Marte has a 3.3 WAR this year, but the left field position takes a big hit from several guys who are slightly below replacement level, including Jose Tabata at -0.2 WAR and Andrew Lambo at -0.6 WAR. Perhaps a better bench would have solved this problem, although most of the guys on this list were injury replacements for the bench, and the favored bench player at the start of the year (Travis Snider) has been replacement level since rejoining the team.

Center Field – 5.7 WAR, 2nd

There’s not much to say here with Andrew McCutchen making up the bulk of the position. Although I will point out that it’s pretty impressive that this is his worst year over the last four years, with a 5.8 WAR, and the Pirates are still having their best record during that span. A lot of this is probably due to the poor start to the season, which definitely hurt the Pirates, but wasn’t really something they could do anything about.

Right Field – 0.5 WAR, 12th

Once again, this isn’t as much due to Gregory Polanco (2.0 WAR) as it is the bench players. Some of them were double counted here, with Lambo and Tabata showing up in both left and right field. Corey Hart shows up here, along with showing up at first base. This continues the trend that the bench was an issue for most of the year.

Overall Offense

The biggest issues for the offense were first base and the bench. Specifically at first base the issue was defense, and that was a problem all around the field. Depending on which metric you looked at, the Pirates were anywhere from the middle of the pack in the NL to the bottom of the pack. They were lower in UZR, although that throws out any play with defensive shifts. They’ve done will with Defensive Runs Saved the past few years, and didn’t have a horrible season this year, ranking fifth in the NL. However, their DRS was 2, which was down from 36 last year, and 68 the year before.

If you’re looking for 3-6 extra wins, you’ve found it here. Of course, the flip side to this is that they sacrificed defense to go with guys who had strong offensive seasons, like Jung-ho Kang at shortstop, Neil Walker at second, and Alvarez at first. Unless you find a guy who can play strong defense with the same offense (aka, a superstar), then you’re probably going to downgrade the offense and upgrade the defense, meaning that a defensive upgrade isn’t going to bring those extra wins without any losses from the current total.

The bench was an issue at the start of the year, but not really something that would have been solved by keeping Travis Snider. He had a great first week of the season in Baltimore, but would have spent that time on the bench behind Gregory Polanco in Pittsburgh. After that, he was replacement level, and was eventually released by a Baltimore team that needed outfield help. A better bench might have led to 1-2 extra wins, at best, but unless those wins came against the Cardinals, they weren’t making up ground here.

Starting Rotation – 16.8 WAR, 4th

The biggest complaint here will be Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke. Some people will say that Morton and Locke cost the Pirates the division. But the reality is that the Pirates had one of the best rotations in baseball, and that included Morton and Locke. Morton had an 0.9 WAR, and Locke had a 1.6 WAR.

Locke’s WAR ties for 82nd out of 154 qualified starters (using 70+ innings as a qualifier, just to get 150+ starters on the list, or five per team). Morton tied for 113th on that list. When you look at the ERA, they are both much lower, with Locke at 118 and Morton at 129.

This could point back to the defensive problems. Both pitchers had much better advanced metrics, and FanGraphs WAR is based off FIP, rather than ERA. They’re both heavy ground ball pitchers, and unlike Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, and A.J. Burnett, they don’t strike out a lot of guys, which makes it harder to offset the defensive issues behind them.

You could say that Morton and Locke could be upgraded over, and you’d be right. But it would be difficult to find an upgrade, and the truth is that a better defense would have probably upgraded their numbers (although I’d put a big blame for Morton on his struggles versus left-handers, more than simply bad defense).

As for the rest of the rotation, the Pirates made one of the best moves of the year when they acquired J.A. Happ, who put up a 2.0 WAR for them in the final two months, and was a huge replacement for A.J. Burnett, and eventually pushed Locke and Morton to fifth and sixth starter roles, while also allowing for much-needed rest for Liriano and Cole.

Bullpen – 4.5 WAR, t-2nd

The Pirates had the best relief combo in the majors in Mark Melancon and Tony Watson. They added Antonio Bastardo as their second lefty, went with Arquimedes Caminero as a project, used Jared Hughes as a seventh inning guy, and for the most part, these moves worked. They later upgraded the middle relief spots, adding Joe Blanton and Joakim Soria at the deadline. It’s hard to find fault with any of their moves here.

Where Could They Improve?

Looking at the overall season, it’s hard to find many cases where the Pirates made a wrong move. In fact, in most cases, they made some of the best moves in baseball.

Francisco Cervelli acquired for Justin Wilson to replace Russell Martin, and then they replace Wilson by trading Joely Rodriguez for Antonio Bastardo. That’s a series of shrewd moves that not only replaced Martin’s value, but saved a ton of money.

Jung-ho Kang signed for $11 M guaranteed, plus a $5 M posting fee, and then going on to put up a value over double what the Pirates paid to get him. That was the steal of the off-season.

A.J. Burnett was a bit of a gift, since he wanted to end his career in Pittsburgh, and gave the team a discount. But they managed to fix him and get him back on track again.

They got a value reliever at the start of the year in Caminero. They got a value reliever mid-season in Joe Blanton. And they got the biggest value of the deadline when they landed J.A. Happ for Adrian Sampson. The deadline values also included Blanton, plus trades for Joakim Soria, Michael Morse, and Aramis Ramirez. Based on the combined WARs, the trade deadline brought an additional 3.6 WAR.

The biggest complaint, once again, was the bench and the defense. But changing the defense means you go a totally different route with your infielders, and the bench has a minimal upgrade. Neither move would have guaranteed they caught the Cardinals.

There is one other thing that stands out here, which I haven’t covered above. That is their record against NL Central teams, specifically the Reds (6-10) and the Brewers (9-10). Winning records against those two teams, who ended up as two of the worst teams in the NL, would have definitely closed the gap against St. Louis. On the flip side of this, they went 11-1 against the Dodgers and the Mets. They also went 6-1 against the Giants, which is the only non-playoff team above .500 right now. They probably wouldn’t be as close to the Cardinals without these performances.

I’m not sure what the trend really says with their records against the Reds and Brewers. Obviously you want to win those games, but it’s not as easy as just wanting to win them. If it was, baseball would be a pretty easy game. And the fact that the Pirates have done so well at every position, and have done so well as a whole on the season, including beating up on some of the best teams in the NL, makes this more frustrating. It’s definitely not a talent issue, and the fact that they’ve beat up on other losing teams shows it’s not a preparation issue. It’s frustrating to not have an answer, but it seems like this could be chalked up to the randomness of baseball. It’s something where you can point to those games and say that a few extra wins against the Reds or Brewers would have won the division. But there’s really no solution presented here.

The reality is that the Pirates were a great team this year, and made some of the best moves in baseball. Their biggest problem is that the Cardinals were better, and also had some value moves of their own, along with stronger depth and defense. Going forward, the Pirates should definitely focus on that defense, while trying not to lose too much of the offense. They should also try to improve their depth some more, and that will happen next year with all of the top prospects ready to make the jump to the majors.

As for this year, if the Pirates were in any other division, we’d be celebrating what an amazing season they had, and talking about all of the great moves that got them here. Instead, they happen to be in the division with the only team that’s better, and I have a hard time faulting them for that stroke of bad luck.

**I’m flying up to Pittsburgh tomorrow to cover the final series of the year. I’ll stick around in Pittsburgh for a few days after that, covering the Wild Card game on Wednesday, and then hopefully it will be off to St. Louis after that.

**Tyler Glasnow and Josh Bell Lead a Loaded Altoona Top 10 Prospect List. We continue our top 10 season recaps with the most loaded team in the system this year, the Altoona Curve.

**Garcia and Tucker Among Best Prospects in the SAL. The breakout player of the year gets some good recognition. The BA lists are a bit weird, as their team lists can often conflict with their overall lists. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cole Tucker gets rated higher than Yeudy Garcia in their Pirates top 30 at the end of the year, even though Garcia was rated higher in the SAL list.

**Two years ago on October 1st, this happened. Hopefully a strange series of events will also lead to the Pirates beating up on another ace next Wednesday. Although it’s much more difficult to make a chant out of “Arrieta”.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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