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First Pitch: This Might Be the Year the ‘Pirates Can’t Draft’ Theory Dies

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The 2016 MLB draft is two weeks away. The Pirates will pick 22nd in the first round, while also having the 41st and 68th picks on day one. This is the third year in a row that the Pirates will be picking in the bottom half of the draft, as they start to see the impact of winning at the Major League level.

The early results from the first two drafts have been good so far. Cole Tucker shows a lot of promise at a young age. The 2014 first round pick finished strong in West Virginia last year, before going down with labrum surgery. He returned early in his rehab this year, and after a slow start, is beginning to pick up where he left off last year. Mitch Keller, the second round pick that year as a prep pitcher out of high school, is looking like the breakout player of the year in the lower levels, with the stuff that could make him a top of the rotation guy one day.

The hitters from the middle rounds haven’t put up consistent results, although they each show some promise. Tyler Eppler might be the most exciting middle round pick, with a fastball that sits 92-94 and touches 96, along with a good changeup. Frank Duncan, who was drafted in the 13th round, is already pitching in Triple-A less than two years later. And 32nd round pick Montana DuRapau is currently the closer in Altoona. This is all overlooking Gage Hinsz, who is another prep pitcher with a lot of upside, making his 2016 debut in short-season ball next month.

The 2015 group is also off to a strong start. First round pick Kevin Newman is a hitting machine, and should be up in Altoona soon, after finishing some work on his defense in Bradenton. He could move quickly through the system, with the chance to be the starting shortstop in Pittsburgh at some point in 2018, if not earlier. Ke’Bryan Hayes, who was taken with a first round compensation pick, is also showing a lot of promise, with excellent defense at third base, and some strong hitting tools.

Just like the 2014 group, the 2015 class has some promising mid-round position players, although the majority of them have either struggled so far, or have been inconsistent. The highlight of the middle rounds is again a pitcher, this time Brandon Waddell. He moved to Bradenton this year, and after quickly having success at the level, he was aggressively pushed to Altoona. This could give him a shot at Indianapolis at the very end of the season, with a chance at the majors at some point later in 2017 if his progression continues to go well.

The concern when the Pirates started drafting lower was that they might not be able to find talent without picking at the top of the draft. The early returns from the last two drafts are showing that this isn’t the case, as the Pirates have promising prospects not only later in the first round, but beyond the first round, and into the middle and later rounds.

But honestly, any concern with the Pirates’ ability to draft is based on the idea that they have been bad at drafting, which is very misguided and outdated when you consider the actual results.

The early results for the Pirates weren’t the best. The 2008 group was fine. Pedro Alvarez didn’t live up to his potential, but had some good years. Jordy Mercer, taken in the third round, is the starting shortstop. The fifth round pick, Justin Wilson, was a good middle reliever, and then was traded for Francisco Cervelli. They also got some short-term help from other players that year.

The 2009 draft was a disaster. Then, the Pirates went extremely heavy on prep players in 2010 and 2011. So for many years, the 2008 group was posting decent results, the 2009 group was doing horrible, and the progression from the 2010 and 2011 classes were naturally slow, as you’d expect from prep heavy groups.

But now, we’re seeing that the Pirates can draft, and not just due to high picks. Right now, every Pirates fan is waiting on a trio of pitchers to arrive from Indianapolis, and all of them were drafted. Jameson Taillon was a first round pick, taken second overall. However, Tyler Glasnow was a fifth round pick, and wasn’t even named one of the top prospects in his state on draft day, before going on to becoming one of the best prospects in baseball. Chad Kuhl was a ninth round pick out of college in 2013, signing for slot, and then going on to develop into a future starting option.

There is less of a need for the offensive players in Triple-A, but the Pirates have plenty of guys who were drafted there. They spent big to get Josh Bell, giving him $5 M in the second round in 2011, after he fell out of the first round due to signability concerns. He’s now starting to approach his potential, with the chance to be an impact hitter in the big leagues. Max Moroff was a 16th round pick in 2012, and Adam Frazier was a 6th round pick in 2013. Both could be bench depth for the Pirates this year, and super utility players in the future.

This might finally be the year that the “Pirates can’t draft” narrative finally dies. The players from the 2014-16 drafts won’t be arriving anytime soon, with the earliest arrivals possible for 2017. But it’s going to be difficult to argue the Pirates can’t draft when so many of their draft picks are on the verge of helping the team, and so many fans are calling for those draft picks to come up sooner, rather than later.

The early returns from the 2014-15 draft classes are encouraging for the potential of the Pirates drafting a good 2016 group. However, it’s the longer term results from the earlier drafts that really add confidence here that the Pirates know what they’re doing, and that they’ll be able to continue getting good talent without picking high in the first round.

**Prospect Watch: Kuhl Pitches Great, Keller and Tarpley Both Hurt by One Big Inning. There’s still some room left on the Chad Kuhl bandwagon.

**Reese McGuire By The Numbers. Sean McCool breaks down the offensive numbers for Reese McGuire this year, along with a look beyond the numbers at his approach at the plate.

**Meet the Guy Who is in Charge Of Those Top Pitching Prospects in Indianapolis. Taking a bit of a different approach with this one, asking the players about the pitching coach, rather than the pitching coach about the players.

**David Todd Podcast: The Indy Starters, Justin Masterson’s Role, and Trade Chips. My weekly interview with David Todd from Wednesday.

**Morning Report: Finding the Best Tools in the Draft. Check out some of the better ranked players from John Dreker’s update today.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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