One of the common questions I’ve seen regarding the Pirates and their drafting has been along these lines:
“Why did they draft this guy? He’s never going to play with [Insert other prospects in the system who play his position].”
Or there’s another version:
“They drafted another [position here]?”
I could give the usual responses about how you can never have too much depth, and you don’t draft for need, but instead draft based on talent. Those would both be true. But the more important thing to realize here is that no matter what position the Pirates draft, that player is going to have someone blocking them in the short-term at the Major League level, and in the long-term by someone currently in the system.
I’ve been writing all year about how loaded the system is, and how there are prospects who are blocked from specific positions, or blocked from moving up. A lot of the players who are blocked are minor situations. For example, Pablo Reyes is more of a sleeper prospect in the system, ranking at the end of our top 50. He’s got power for a middle infielder, and has the range to play shortstop. But he spent all year at second base last year because he was on the same team as Cole Tucker. This year, his playing time was cut down further, being on the same team as Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer. And now Newman is gone, and Tucker is back.
Several years ago, Reyes would be starting at shortstop with no competition, and it would stay that way until he reached the upper levels. Now? He can barely find consistent playing time, and needs to move to the outfield to get at-bats.
That’s just one situation. And it’s only going to continue to be like that, since the Pirates now have their MLB lineup set for the long-term, which is going to cause a road block that is going to trickle down each level, with new prospects being drafted and signed that will be pushing from the lower levels.
Note that I’m just including position players in this discussion. I’d include pitchers, as the pitching situation looks good for the long-term. The Pirates should start next year with a rotation that includes Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Jameson Taillon. They could also have Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, and Trevor Williams in that mix. That’s not considering Francisco Liriano (I’m going to include him, even though his current status is doom and gloom) and Jon Niese, who could also be options. Then there’s the starters in Altoona like Clay Holmes, Tyler Eppler, and Brandon Waddell, who could be anywhere from #3-5 starters, depending on the guy. And if you want more high upside guys, Mitch Keller is starting to emerge in West Virginia, and I also have high hopes for Gage Hinsz. Beyond those two, you’ve got Luis Escobar, and a lot of prep pitchers from the last few years, including three already in the 2016 draft.
But the thing about pitching is that you can never have enough. That’s true of all positions, but even more so with pitching, where injuries are more common. So I’m going to leave pitchers out, because I don’t think anyone is saying “They don’t need more pitching”, especially with the current MLB pitching staff performance.
To illustrate the point on the position player side, let’s go through each position to see the short- and long-term starters, and how long new draft picks would be blocked.
Catcher
Prior to the Francisco Cervelli extension, this was the only area where the short-term future was in question. Elias Diaz is currently dealing with his ongoing elbow issues, although he’s starting to throw again, so his status for later in the year and in 2017 is up in the air. Reese McGuire shows promise with the bat, but hasn’t been consistent enough to move up beyond Double-A.
This is one area where the lower levels aren’t blocked. There are some interesting catchers below McGuire in Altoona, but none of them project as more than a backup catcher, and none of them have been consistent enough to look like a strong bet to reach the majors in that role. So for a pick like Brent Gibbs, the seventh round catcher out of the JuCo ranks, there will be plenty of playing time available in short-season ball.
That said, with Cervelli under contract through the 2019 season, and Diaz and McGuire in the system, the Pirates might not need catching at the MLB level for a long time.
First Base
John Jaso is on the shortest term deal of all the MLB starters, only signed through 2017. He ranks about middle of the pack right now in WAR among NL first baseman, but ranks fifth in wOBA with .344 and fifth in wRC+ with 118.
Right below him, the Pirates have Josh Bell in Indianapolis. Bell is starting to show his power potential this year, hitting for a .298/.391/.468 line in 218 at-bats, with seven homers. What is even more encouraging is that he has been doing outstanding against right-handers, with a 1.010 OPS this year, which is really an improvement over the past, when there were fears he could turn into a platoon player. The success from Jaso allows Bell to refine his game in Triple-A, where he has continued his work on his hitting and getting the maximum potential from his bat, while also getting more comfortable defensively at first base.
If Bell took over as the starting first baseman in 2017, then the Pirates would be set at the position through the 2022 season. That means 2016 first round pick Will Craig is blocked from reaching the majors at first base in Pittsburgh as long as Bell is here. Even if Bell doesn’t stick around that entire time, he’s going to be around longer than Craig needs to develop. And Bell has more upside than Craig, so this isn’t a situation where you’d replace him with the new guy.
Second Base
Josh Harrison is under team control through the 2020 season, making $10 M or more in his final three years (with option years in his final two years). I’ve seen debates about whether he could actually stick around at those prices. If he plays like he’s playing this year (1.2 WAR through a third of the season), or even close to that, he will be worth the price.
But it might be an issue where the Pirates don’t have to keep Harrison around because they’ve got prospects on the way. They currently have Alen Hanson, Max Moroff, and Adam Frazier in Indianapolis. They’ve got Erich Weiss in Altoona. Then there’s Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker in Bradenton. The last two profile as shortstops, but there’s only room for one shortstop, which I’ll get to in a second. This isn’t even counting Kevin Kramer, who hasn’t put up good numbers this year, but is consistently hitting the ball hard.
Outside of the shortstops, most of the guys I mentioned above profile as bench options. Hanson has the highest upside of the group, but it seems like he’s constantly pushing too hard to make the majors, which throws off his game and makes him very inconsistent. As for the other guys, they might profile as bench and utility options, but so did Harrison at one point. With all of these options, the Pirates should have one guy emerge as a starter to replace Harrison for the long-term. Any middle infielder that gets drafted only gets added to the mix, with a lot of good options ahead of them.
Shortstop
The Pirates have Jordy Mercer under team control through the 2018 season. He’s a defense-first shortstop who can provide the occasional offensive value, and does well against lefties. However, he’s a guy who could be upgraded over in the long-term.
I mentioned above that Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker are the strongest bets right away at shortstop. Newman should stay one step ahead of Tucker, going up to Altoona when he returns from his orbital fracture. The combo could move up together at the start of next year, with Newman in Indianapolis and Tucker in Altoona. At some point, possibly late next year, Newman will take over for Mercer.
If it doesn’t happen next year, it should happen in 2018. The interesting thing is that Newman needs work on his defense, and I could see Mercer playing a mentor role, kind of like how Clint Barmes mentored Mercer.
As for shortstops drafted, like strong defensive third rounder Stephen Alemais, the odds of them starting at shortstop anytime soon in this system are slim, as Newman and/or Tucker will have the position locked down until about 2024 (with the other one possibly taking the other middle infield role). The good thing about drafting shortstops is that they can pretty much play anywhere. Just look at Adam Frazier and Max Moroff, who were both drafted as shortstops. They’re now playing the outfield, second base, and third base. So don’t expect the Pirates to stop drafting shortstops any time soon.
Third Base
This used to be completely barren in the system, but has improved lately. Jung-ho Kang is now the starter in Pittsburgh, and is under control through the 2019 season at a very team-friendly price. As in, the Pirates will be paying him a little over $11 M for the next three years.
Getting back to Will Craig, let’s dream a bit and imagine that his big frame could stick at third base. The Pirates tried Jason Rogers at third base in the spring, so why wouldn’t they stick with Craig at the position as long as possible? Even if that could be possible for him, the Pirates have a better internal option in Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Craig might end up with more power potential than Hayes, but Hayes has far superior defense, along with the ability to hit and get on base. This could be a Newman/Tucker situation, where Craig is always one level ahead of Hayes. But both could be ready for the majors before Kang is a free agent, and Hayes would be the better option.
The Pirates also have Max Moroff, Connor Joe, Jordan Luplow, and Wyatt Mathisen as options, but none of those guys look like starting options, and the lower level guys haven’t shown that they’re MLB options yet.
Left Field/Right Field
Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are under team control through 2021 and 2023, respectively. With the above positions, we’re talking about prospects who might be under control through 2023 or 2024. In Marte’s case, the Pirates don’t need a replacement for five years, not counting this year. In Polanco’s case, if Josh Bell came up this year and stuck in the majors, they’d be looking for a replacement for Bell before looking for a replacement for Polanco.
Simply put, I’m going to talk about the prospects and the draft picks for the outfield in the center field section.
Center Field
A year ago, if you wrote that Austin Meadows would eventually replace Andrew McCutchen in 2019, people would riot. Now? With the way they’re both playing, people might riot if you suggest that Meadows won’t take over until 2019.
I’m not ready to say that Andrew McCutchen is in the decline. I’m not sure why his strikeouts are up, or why he’s struggling this year, but I have a feeling it has to do with his thumb. He talked last week in Miami about how this has prevented him from getting the bat head out for inside pitches, leading to him getting jammed on the inside. It actually shouldn’t be a mystery why his numbers are down if his bat currently isn’t quick enough to get around and barrel up inside pitches.
McCutchen could bounce back from this and put up the MVP numbers we’ve gotten used to in the past. But this is a reminder that those MVP numbers won’t be around for long. It’s rare for a player to continue performing at a pace that McCutchen has performed at. Spending to keep him beyond 2018 could be disastrous for the Pirates financially, and foolish when you consider what they’ve got in the system.
Meadows is currently tearing it up in Altoona. Since last season, he has a .317/.377/.599 line in 192 plate appearances, with four homers. This all comes at the age of 20-21. He’s starting to show off his power lately, and is looking like he could be the impact bat that he was projected to be when he was drafted. At this rate, Meadows could very well take over for McCutchen before the 2019 season rolls around. That just sucks, because McCutchen has been one of the best players the Pirates have had in recent history, and probably ranking up there among the all-time guys. But it’s likely that Meadows will be better after 2018 when you compare their careers.
Beyond Meadows, there’s Harold Ramirez in Altoona, who has good hitting skills and the ability to get on base, but lacks the overall upside Meadows has. There’s Tito Polo having a breakout year in West Virginia, obviously further away than Meadows and Ramirez.
As for the draft picks, good luck making it as a starter in the majors with the Pirates anytime in the next 6-8 years.
Designated Hitter
There will be people who hate this section, but I’m including it for two reasons. One, the DH in the NL might be a reality after the 2016 season, with the new CBA being negotiated in the off-season. Two, I want to show how much things won’t really improve with the extra spot, as far as roster crunches go.
Let’s say that initially the DH allows the Pirates to bring up Josh Bell and play him and John Jaso on the same team in 2017. Then maybe Austin Meadows comes up. Now you’ve got to get rid of one of the first basemen, which wouldn’t be an issue for Jaso, since he’s gone after 2017.
But now you’ve got Meadows and McCutchen, with one of them needed at DH to get them in the lineup. This could help reduce the injuries for McCutchen, but might not make him valuable enough to justify an extension. Also, let’s be realistic. If they’re not moving McCutchen out of center field for a better option in Starling Marte, then they’re not moving him to DH for Austin Meadows.
If McCutchen leaves, that might open the DH spot for Craig, which would give him more value, since you don’t have to worry about his defense. But you’ve also got to consider Ramirez, Polo, and other top prospects who are blocked at other positions.
And then when it comes to the draft picks, once again, good luck finding a starting role.
A Good Problem to Have
None of this is a bad thing. No organization would complain about having too much talent. And the assumed thing about all prospect talk is that prospects aren’t guaranteed. So it’s good to have multiple options and “blocked” prospects, because some of these prospects won’t end up blocked after the guys ahead of them struggle.
There’s also the possibility of trading prospects, which gets incredibly easy when you have this much depth.
So if you’re wondering why the Pirates drafted another [Insert position here] when they’ve got plenty of short- and long-term options at that position, just realize that it’s the same story with every position, and drafting more people for that position isn’t an actual problem.
**Draft Day Two: Pirates Take a Prep Pitcher and Some Lottery Ticket College Players. The day two recap, looking at another prep pitcher, and how the Pirates might pay for him with college guys who might also have upsides of their own.
**Draft Rumors: Many of the Top Ten Picks Have Already Indicated They Will Sign. John Dreker rounds up the draft news and rumors, and finds that many of the top ten picks are already set to sign with the Pirates.
**Here are the articles and the player pages for all of the day two picks. Also, be sure to check out the Draft Pick Signing Tracker for more information on each player.
- Third Round: Pirates Draft Shortstop Stephen Alemais / Player Page
- Fourth Round: Pirates Draft LHP Braeden Ogle / Player Page
- Fifth Round: Pirates Draft RHP Blake Cederlind / Player Page
- Sixth Round: Pirates Draft LHP Cam Vieaux / Player Page
- Seventh Round: Pirates Draft Catcher Brent Gibbs / Player Page
- Eighth Round: Pirates Draft RHP Dylan Prohoroff / Player Page
- Ninth Round: Pirates Draft Center Fielder Clark Eagan / Player Page
- Tenth Round: Pirates Draft RHP Matthew Anderson / Player Page
**Cole and Cervelli Leave With Injuries, Nicasio Struggles in Pirates Loss. Alan Saunders has the game recap tonight, along with injury updates with what we know on Gerrit Cole and Francisco Cervelli.
**Prospect Watch: Keller and Kuhl Struggle Through Their Outings. Not the best nights for Mitch Keller and Chad Kuhl, with a live report on Kuhl from Brian Peloza.
**Minor Moves: Alex McRae Promoted to Double-A Altoona. McRae got promoted today, but didn’t have a good debut.
**Pirates Notes: Locke Has a Frustrating Day, Nicasio Available Out of the Bullpen. Locke reflects on his start in Colorado on Thursday night.
