For several years, I’ve been talking about how the Pirates could end up having the best outfield in baseball, with Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco. This Dream Outfield™ started taking shape in 2012 with Polanco’s breakout season. It really started looking like a Dream Outfield™ in 2013, when Polanco started emerging as one of the best prospects in baseball, Starling Marte started realizing his potential in the majors, and Andrew McCutchen won the MVP award.
But now, we’re there. This is the outfield we imagined several years ago, and the results might be better than expected so far. Not only have the Pirates been one of the best outfields in baseball this year, they might have one of the best outfield seasons in baseball history.
Through the end of May, the Pirates played 51 games. Their outfield (including Matt Joyce) combined for a 6.6 WAR during that span. Extrapolating that out, they are on pace for a 20.96 WAR over a 162 game schedule. So just how good is that number?
First of all, only 13 teams in MLB history have had an outfield with a combined WAR of 21.0 or greater. And out of those 13 teams, only two teams have done it from 1970 on. Those two teams are the 1990 Athletics and the 2001 Cardinals.
The Athletics team was legit, with three true outfielders. But the Cardinals team has a bit of an asterisk. Their totals include Albert Pujols, who played in the outfield, but spent half of his games in 2001 at first base and third base. Pujols had 716 innings at the corner infield spots, and 611.2 innings in the outfield. And the FanGraphs charts don’t separate his value from the other positions. So it’s hard to count this team, since they’re getting value from Pujols playing other positions.
There are other teams in the same boat. For example, the 1902 Pirates have the second best outfield WAR in history, although they get credit for Honus Wagner, who played 77 games in the infield, and 61 in the outfield.
The best true Pirates outfield was in 1971, with Willie Stargell, Roberto Clemente, and Al Oliver. That group combined for a 20.6 WAR. If the Dream Outfield™ keeps up their current pace, they would narrowly edge out that 1971 group.
There are still four months left in the 2016 season, so a lot can happen. I think the Gregory Polanco breakout is legit, and he will continue performing like this the remainder of the year. He was out for tonight’s game, but right now that doesn’t sound like anything major, and he was walking around in the dugout during the game. Starling Marte is playing above his head a bit, with a .407 BABIP that won’t be sustainable.
But then there’s Andrew McCutchen, who isn’t having the best year. McCutchen isn’t looking like an MVP this year, on pace for a WAR under 4.0. Putting that in perspective, he hasn’t had a WAR under 4.0 since his first full season in the majors in 2010. There are two things you can think here. Number one is that McCutchen has seen a rapid decline, and will no longer perform like one of the best players in the game. Number two is that he’s had another slow start, this one being a bit slower than normal, and he will rebound as the season goes on.
I think it’s more the latter. I don’t think we’ve seen the best from McCutchen this year, and I think we will eventually see that. This will help off-set any decline when Marte comes back to Earth, and should keep this group performing at an extremely high level.
It’s only a third of the season, but I could see this group staying on their pace to have one of the best outfield seasons in MLB history. As for being one of the best outfields in MLB history, that would require a few more years of this production. This means McCutchen can’t be on the decline, and Marte and Polanco would have to continue their high level of play. Polanco is in his age 24 season, and Marte is in his age 27 season, so that seems likely in each case.
Long-term, even if McCutchen does eventually decline, the Pirates are set up well to continue having great performances from their outfield group. Polanco is under team control through the 2023 season, and Marte is under control through 2021. They also have Austin Meadows in the minors, giving them another potential impact bat. Meadows had a slow start in Altoona this year after his orbital surgery, but his bat has exploded the last few weeks, with a 1.196 OPS in 64 plate appearances. Even if Meadows doesn’t work out, the Pirates also have Harold Ramirez and Tito Polo in the system as future starting options.
The Pirates are set for the long-term in outfield, with a chance to have a great group for years to come, even if some of the current personnel is replaced. But in the short-term, we get to watch the Dream Outfield™ living up to their potential, and on pace for one of the best outfield seasons in MLB history.
**Tito Polo is the Pirates Prospects Player of the Month for May. I wrote on Tuesday that he was breaking out in West Virginia, and part of that breakout led to him being our Player of the Month.
**Chad Kuhl is the Pirates Prospects Pitcher of the Month for May. He might be pitching in Pittsburgh by this time next month.
**Prospect Watch: Polo and Munoz Lead Power to Big Win, Glasnow Puts Up Deceptive Numbers. About the same time that we posted the Polo article, he exploded for a home run and a double in the first inning of today’s game. He didn’t stop there, picking up another homer and another double, along with a walk. Also, a live report from Brian Peloza in Indianapolis on Glasnow’s start.
**Tony Watson and Jon Niese Can’t Continue Recent Success in Tonight’s Pirates Loss. Tonight’s live recap from Miami. Niese and Watson looked good recently, but that didn’t carry over tonight.
**Gage Hinsz Expected to Make His West Virginia Debut on Friday. This is another high upside arm to watch, and it’s great that he’s getting a shot at West Virginia this year. I’ll have more on Hinsz before he makes that start.
**Gregory Polanco Scratched Tonight; Updates on Vogelsong, Diaz, Newman, Brault, Caminero. This week’s injury updates, with news on Polanco, as well as a good step for Elias Diaz.
**Morning Report: Draft News, an Award for Garcia, and Early Games Across the Minors. John Dreker with some morning notes.
