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Morning Report: Clay Holmes Has the Look of a Top Prospect

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On Tuesday afternoon, I was able to watch the Monday night start from Clay Holmes. I already wrote about the start ahead of time in the Prospect Watch that night, so I had a good idea of what to expect, but sometimes things don’t always play out how they look in the boxscore.

Tyler Glasnow was a perfect example of that when you looked at his six no-hit inning game followed by seven no-hit innings the next time out. His stuff during those games was drastically different, with an erratic fastball and curve in game one, followed by control of both pitches, as well as increased velocity in the second game. Tyler Eppler is another example, with three games in a row that looked much better on paper than what I saw by actually watching the games. He ended up struggling badly in his next couple starts even though his stuff looked exactly the same.

After saying all that, I’ll now tell you that Holmes pitched exactly like his pitching line indicated. In the first two innings, he allowed a run on two hits and two walks, running up his pitch count in the process. In those first two innings, he was leaving his fastball up and couldn’t throw his curve for strikes. He was basically a one-pitch pitcher and he was giving up some hard contact. He was also throwing a lot of pitches, as no one was chasing the curve.

Holmes then retired 14 in a row, starting with the last two batters of the second inning. The first out of that stretch was just the pitcher putting down a sacrifice bunt, but you saw a glimpse of things to come with the last out of the second inning. From that point on, Holmes showed why he is a top 20 prospect in the system.

The scouting report on Holmes is that his fastball sits 92-95, touching 96 MPH. He’s 6’5″ and throws it on a nice downward plane. He also throws a curve with a nice sharp break that makes some knees buckle. His changeup has improved and he started throwing a two-seam fastball this year to go along with the four-seam. So he’s a four-pitcher pitcher, who relies mainly on the four-seam for power (93-96 MPH) to set up batters and the two-seam (91-93 on Monday) get quick outs on the ground, while using the curve as an out pitch. The changeup is rarely used, but I have seen strong results from the pitch as it comes in faster than his curve, but has nice separation from the two-seamer.

Over the last four innings on Monday, Holmes was pounding the bottom half of the strike zone with fastballs. When he got to two strikes, he dropped a curve in and picked up six strikeouts from those last 12 batters. What Holmes does well all the time is pitch inside to right-handed batters, setting up on the first base side of the pitching rubber and running the pitch in on them. Sometimes it is just to get them off the plate. Sometimes it’s buried down and in for a strike. Ten times this year, he has hit a batter. No matter how he uses the pitch though, it is effective. It’s led to uncomfortable at-bats, a ton of broken bats and when it works just right, he can follow up the inside pitch by throwing a fastball on the outside corner for a strikeout.

Holmes has now allowed two runs over his last 17 innings, covering three starts. If he pitches more like he did on Monday from the end of the second inning on, and less like the pitcher I saw the first 1.2 innings, then at this time next year, we could be talking about him as an option for the Pirates rotation.

PIRATES GAME GRAPH


Source: FanGraphs

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pirates lost 5-2 to the Mariners on Tuesday night. Jameson Taillon makes his fifth start tonight. He has been knocked out early in each of his last two starts with identical lines of four runs on eight hits and one walk in four innings. Before those two outings, he threw eight shutout innings against the Mets. The Mariners will counter with Wade Miley, who has a 5.28 ERA in 76.2 innings, with 58 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. He went five innings in his last start, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks against the Rangers. Prior to that game, Miley threw seven shutout innings against the Indians.

In the minors, Frank Duncan gets the afternoon start for Indianapolis. He has a 1.94 GO/AO ratio this season, along with a 1.03 WHIP and a .230 BAA. Brandon Waddell looks to build off seven shutout innings in his last game. In his five prior starts combined, he allowed 18 earned runs over 21 innings, failing to go more than five innings in any of those games. Dario Agrazal had a 2.80 ERA on May 25th and since then it’s gone up to 5.14, with ten or more hits allowed in four of his last five starts.

Argenis Romano goes for the GCL Pirates. Danny Beddes makes his first start for Morgantown. Nicholas Economos is likely starting for Bristol, although it says TBD.

MLB: Pittsburgh (37-41) @ Mariners (39-38) 10:10 PM
Probable starter: Jameson Taillon (4.50 ERA, 5:15 BB/SO, 22.0 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (41-37) vs Gwinnett (35-44) 1:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Frank Duncan (2.80 ERA, 6:39 BB/SO, 45.0 IP)

AA: Altoona (43-33) vs Binghamton (32-43) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Brandon Waddell (4.44 ERA, 21:34 BB/SO, 46.2 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (41-32) vs Jupiter (34-40) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Jose Regalado (2.97 ERA, 10:26 BB/SO, 33.1 IP)

Low-A: West Virginia (38-37) vs Lexington (26-49) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Dario Agrazal (5.14 ERA, 11:42 BB/SO, 70.0 IP)

Short-Season A: Morgantown (6-6) @ Batavia (3-9) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable Starter: Danny Beddes (2.84 ERA, 3:8 BB/SO, 6.1 IP)

Rookie: Bristol (5-1) vs Burlington (3-3) 7:00 PM (season preview)

GCL: Pirates (2-1) vs Tigers West (2-2) 12:00 PM (season preview)

DSL: Pirates (7-14) vs Rangers1 (16-5) 10:30 AM (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

Here is Reese McGuire hitting a single up the middle on Monday night. That hit gave him a six-game hit streak and pushed his OPS over the .700 mark.

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

6/28: Trevor Williams activated from temporary inactive list.

6/28: Carl Anderson assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.

6/28: Pirates sign Max Kranick.

6/27: Pirates sign Buddy Borden. Assigned to Bradenton.

6/27: Jeff Roy assigned to Bristol.

6/27: Erik Lunde placed on the disabled list.

6/26: Pirates purchase the contract of Chad Kuhl. Kyle Lobstein optioned to Indianapolis.

6/26: Pirates designate Curtis Partch for assignment.

6/26: Pirates unconditionally release Cory Luebke.

6/26: Trevor Williams placed on bereavement list.

6/26: Tomas Morales sent to Bradenton.

6/25: Justin Maffei assigned to Altoona.

6/25: Luis Paula and David Whitehead assigned to Bristol on rehab.

6/24: Pirates purchase the contract of Adam Frazier. Designate Cole Figueroa for assignment.

6/24: Juan Nicasio activated from restricted list. Designate Jorge Rondon for assignment.

6/24: Jacob Stallings optioned to Indianapolis.

6/23: JT Brubaker added to Bradenton roster. Colten Brewer placed on temporary inactive list.

6/23: Tito Polo assigned to Bradenton.

6/22: Pirates recall Kyle Lobstein. Wilfredo Boscan optioned to Indianapolis.

6/22: Jhondaniel Medina assigned to Indianapolis.

6/21: Pirates recall Wilfredo Boscan. Curtis Partch optioned to Indianapolis.

6/21: Pirates sign Braeden Ogle.

6/20: Trace Tam Sing and Erik Lunde added to Bradenton roster. Pablo Reyes placed on temporary inactive list.

6/19: Steven Brault sent to Morgantown on a rehab assignment.

6/19: Pirates purchase the contract of Jacob Stallings. Jason Rogers optioned to Indianapolis.

6/19: Tomas Morales promoted to Indianapolis.

6/18: Pirates option Rob Scahill to Indianapolis. Recall Jason Rogers, Jorge Rondon and Curtis Partch.

6/18: Cory Luebke designated for assignment.

6/18: Juan Nicasio placed on restricted list.

6/17: Pirates released Garrett Russini and Guido Knudson.

6/17: Pirates sign Matt Frawley, Stephen Owen and Arden Pabst.

6/16: Pirates sign 13 draft picks.

6/16: Casey Hughston and Logan Sendelbach assigned to West Virginia. Julio Vivas and Billy Roth assigned to Morgantown.

6/15: Pirates sign Will Craig, Matt Anderson and nine other draft picks.

6/15: Pirates release Nick Buckner.

6/15: Trey Haley sent outright to Indianapolis.

6/15: Dovydas Neverauskas promoted to Indianapolis. John Kuchno placed on disabled list.

THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY

Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus one trade of note involving the single-game strikeout king. The players born on this date include pitcher Tony McKnight (2001), second baseman Burgess Whitehead (1946), second baseman Heinie Reitz and pitcher Patsy Flaherty, who played for the Pirates in 1900, and then again during the 1904-05 season. You can read a bio of Reitz and his time with the Pirates here. Whitehead has a very interesting career stat. He played nine season in the majors, seeing time with three different teams (also Giants and Cardinals). Whitehead hit 17 homers in his career and all of them were hit at the Polo Grounds.

Also born on this date, third baseman and current broadcaster John Wehner. He played for the Pirates from 1991 until 1996 and then again during the 1999-2001 seasons. He has been a broadcaster with the Pirates since 2005. Wehner set a record with 99 consecutive errorless games at third base. In 1997, he won a World Series ring with the Florida Marlins. While in Pittsburgh, he hit .250 over 364 games.

The one trade of note happened on this date in 1961 and the Pirates gave up young pitcher Tom Cheney in exchange for veteran Tom Sturdivant. The two players put up similar stats while with their new teams, but Cheney had a very memorable game. On September 12,1962, he threw 16 innings and struck out 21 batters, which is a Major League record. It was a complete game win and one of the best pitching performances of all-time. You can see the boxscore of that game here.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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