The 2016 MLB Draft starts on Thursday at 7 PM, with the first two rounds of the draft taking place that evening. The Pittsburgh Pirates pick 22nd, 41st, and 68th that day. Rounds 3-10 follow on Friday at 1 PM, and rounds 11-40 are on Saturday at noon.
For the last four years, we have released tiered rankings for the top 100 prospects. We start with an average of all of the major draft rankings, then arrange players into tiers, which are customized based on where the Pirates pick. Each tier is shown below, with a summary of the most notable guys in each group.
Check back on the site during the draft to read about who the Pirates picked. We will have player pages for every player who is drafted, along with instant analysis on each pick, and our updated Draft Pick Signing Tracker.
Tier 1
Otherwise known as the “They Definitely Won’t Fall to the Pirates” Tier
Braxton Garrett, Jason Groome, Dakota Hudson, Kyle Lewis, Mickey Moniak, Riley Pint, A.J. Puk, Corey Ray, Blake Rutherford, Nick Senzel
There haven’t been any rumors that these players will fall anywhere near the Pirates, so there isn’t much to say about this group that is relevant to the team. They may not be picks 1-10, but they should all be gone before the top 15 picks are done.
Tier 2
Otherwise known as the “There is a Chance They Could Fall, and the Pirates Should Take Them if They Do” Tier
Ian Anderson, Zack Collins, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Manning, Delvin Perez, Forrest Whitley
You shouldn’t get your hopes up for any of them, but don’t be surprised if one of them is available for the Pirates. Delvin Perez only made this group because he failed a pre-draft drug test, so we have no idea what that will do to his draft stock. Otherwise he would have been in the first group. Ian Anderson goes fairly high for most people, but as a cold-weather pitcher who had some issues (weather, illness, minor injury), scouts didn’t get a good look at him. He also supposedly wants $3M to sign, so that could scare off teams. Alex Kirilloff is from Plum HS in Pittsburgh and the Pirates supposedly had a lot of interest in him. On the small chance he falls to them, I’d be shocked if they didn’t pick him.
Tier 3
Otherwise known as the “These Are the Guys Who Are Good Fits For the 22nd Overall Pick” Tier
Will Benson, Will Craig, Justin Dunn, Nolan Jones, Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux, Kyle Muller, Cal Quantrill, Bryan Reynolds, Jordan Sheffield, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Trammell, Robert Tyler, Joey Wentz, T.J. Zeuch
Some of these guys will be gone before the Pirates get to make their first pick, and I could see them all being gone before they make their second pick. They are all consistently rated in the Pirates’ range in rankings and mock drafts. None of them would be a reach at this pick and some of them would be a great selection because they were rated much higher at times during the season.
Nolan Jones headlines this group because he fits the recent mold of draft picks for the Pirates. He’s very athletic and he has a bat that should play anywhere. He’s a shortstop now, but he will likely end up at another position down the line. That’s where the athleticism comes into the picture, giving the Pirates a strong hitter who they can plug into a weak spot in the system if he gets blocked at his current position. Jones is a lefty bat, who has at least average tools across the board.
Joey Wentz is an interesting high school arm, who usually gets ranked higher than this group. That’s because he absolutely dominated the high school competition in his area and he was hitting 95 MPH. His velocity went down as the season ended, so that’s why he was ranked here and not in the prior group. He could very well be taken in the top ten picks if a team doesn’t worry about the velocity drop as the season progressed.
Justin Dunn went from dominating reliever with a fastball that touched 99 MPH, to a starter who sat 92-95 MPH and showed off a four-pitch mix with potential. It’s possible that if he gets used to throwing more innings, you could see even better velocity as a starter, which would make him a strong first round pick for the Pirates.
Jordan Sheffield is a hard-thrower with control issues, who some scouts see as a reliever, which holds him back from being rated higher. T.J. Zeuch is a huge local college kid from Pitt, who really shot up the draft charts due to a nice three-pitch mix and the ability to hit 96-97 MPH. Cal Quantrill has barely pitched the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, but he is apparently healthy now and throwing for teams. Under normal circumstances, he was headed for a top ten pick. Taylor Trammell has plus-plus speed, can play center field and has raw power. He has plenty of upside, though it comes with the lowest floor among this group. He, too, could be gone a lot earlier. Will Craig has a terrific bat and should hit for power and get on base. His drawback is that he’s a slow first baseman.
Tier 4
Otherwise known as the “Questionable For the 22nd Pick, Great For the 41st Pick” Tier
Zack Burdi, Kevin Gowdy, Jared Horn, Connor Jones, Anthony Kay, Carter Kieboom, Eric Lauer, Cody Sedlock
Some of these players could be gone before the Pirates make their first pick, but in most cases they are rated somewhere in the middle of the two early picks. Zack Burdi has been picked for the Pirates in multiple mock drafts, so it seems like he should be in the prior group. We put him here because he’s a reliever who does have some command issues, so he wouldn’t exactly be the best player to spend the early pick on. He may not even get to the Pirates because there are teams who will take him because he can be in the majors quickly. I think the Pirates will go more for upside, rather than a low ceiling/high floor player.
Eric Lauer and Cody Sedlock are both solid mid-rotation candidates. Don’t have the huge upside, but they are polished pitchers who could move quick. Jared Horn is young for the draft class and everyone knows the Pirates love 6′ 3″ right-handed pitchers. He hits 94-96 MPH with his fastball, mixing it with secondary pitches that need work. He won’t move quickly, but the upside is there. Anthony Kay is one who ranks in this area, yet I don’t see him as a fit for the Pirates. He’s a 5′ 11″ lefty, with good control over a nice fastball/change combo. He’s a good pitcher, just doesn’t have that workhorse frame they look for in pitchers. Connor Jones saw his stock drop due to low strikeout numbers and the fact he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He’s still a good pitcher, but he would have been in the second tier if we did this a few months ago.
Tier 5
Otherwise known as the “These Are the Guys Who Are Good Fits For the 41st Overall Pick” Tier
Corbin Burnes, Dane Dunning, Jon Duplantier, Lucas Erceg, Anfernee Grier, Daulton Jefferies, Jesus Luzardo, Drew Mendoza, Chris Okey, Cole Ragans, Buddy Reed, Joe Rizzo, Logan Shore, Alex Speas
Almost every player here has been mentioned higher at times. Buddy Reed is a player everyone had rated high early on and he just never put everything together. He’s the type of player who you take at this spot (if he makes it) and he could end up being better than your top pick. Daulton Jefferies was also rated much higher early on. There were questions about his size at 6′ 0″, 180 pounds and whether he could take the ball every five days in the pros. He didn’t answer those questions by missing half of the season with an injury. Jesus Lazardo is a talented lefty with polish for a high school pitcher. He dropped a lot for some people due to Tommy John surgery, but apparently some teams are still high on him. Logan Shore has a nice change/fastball combo, but he lacks a decent breaking pitch and that’s what holds him back from being rated higher.
Anfernee Grier improved a lot this season, showing some power to go along with his plus speed and hitting ability. Lucas Erceg is a college third baseman with a nice glove/arm and the ability to hit for some power. Alex Speas is another potential huge payoff player. He has a fastball/curve combo that gets ratings like Tyler Glasnow, with the spotty control and below average changeup to match him. A 6′ 4″ right-handed pitcher with that kind of stuff probably looks very intriguing for a patient team like the Pirates. On the flip side is Cole Ragans, who is a polished 6′ 3″ lefty, who doesn’t quite have the upside of Speas, but he is much further along in his progress. I don’t think the Pirates would do it, but Ragans would be able to handle full-season ball in 2017 right out of high school.
Tier 6
Otherwise known as the “These Are the Guys Who Are Good Fits For the Second Round Pick” Tier
Peter Alonso, Akil Baddoo, Nick Banks, Jeff Belge, Bo Bichette, Hunter Bishop, Ryan Boldt, Ben Bowden, Bryson Brigman, Connor Capel, CJ Chatham, Jake Fraley, Kyle Funkhouser, Alec Hansen, Logan Ice, Zach Jackson, Cooper Johnson, Thomas Jones, Reggie Lawson, Brandon Marsh, Sean Murphy, Braeden Ogle, A.J. Puckett, Heath Quinn, Ryan Rolison, Ben Rortvedt, Hudson Sanchez, Will Smith, Nolan Williams
These names didn’t come up often or at all in mock drafts, but they did get some attention, making them strong second round options. Ryan Boldt was one of the players we followed early because he’s a toolsy outfielder and he’s always been more about potential than results. He didn’t really do enough this season to remove that tag. Alec Hansen was a potential first overall pick coming into the season despite below average control. He never improved and looked really bad at times, but scouts drool over his size and the fastball/slider combo. Depending on when we did this article during the season, he would have probably fit in every tier at one point. One team will probably dream big and take him in the second round.
Brandon Marsh is raw with the bat, but he offers up potential huge upside to a patient team. If a team sees him as a center fielder with power/speed potential, then he won’t make it this far. The Louisville battery of Kyle Funkhouser and Will Smith have both made moves up the chart recently. For Funkhouser, it was him finally showing the stuff that had him rated in the 20’s going into last year’s draft, before falling in the last couple weeks and deciding to return to college. Ben Rortvedt is a high school catcher with a nice lefty bat and an above average arm. Catching isn’t strong for the Pirates at the lowest levels, so a prep catcher at this spot would fill a weakness. Jake Fraley is a high on base guy with above average speed and the ability to play center field. He lacks power, but he fits the “athletic player at a premium position, who gets on base” mold. Texas A&M outfielder Nick Banks was a possible top 10-15 pick early in the season. He was injured early and didn’t produce much when he returned, plummeting down the draft charts. He’s another possible pick where you get a huge return on your investment if you can get him this late.
Jeff Belge is a big 6′ 4″ righty out of upstate New York, who didn’t get much attention until he was hitting 95 MPH. Pitchers from cold weather states like New York are usually late bloomers with limited mound time due to short baseball seasons. He would be tough to pass up in the second round.
Tier 7
Otherwise known as the “Everyone Else in the Top 100, Although Keep in Mind the Third Round Pick is 105th Overall” Tier
Keegan Akin, Zack Brown, Carlos Cortes, Brett Cumberland, Luis Curbelo, Bobby Dalbec, Ronnie Dawson, Matthias Dietz, Jameson Fisher, Zac Gallen, Nicholas Hanson, Austin Hays, Chad Hockin, Griffin Jax, Matt Krook, Adam Laskey, Zach Linginfelter, Nick Lodolo, Nolan Martinez, Sheldon Neuse, Jake Rogers, Mike Shawaryn, Skylar Szynski, Braden Webb, J.B. Woodman
You probably won’t hear any of these names on day one, as we tried to include all of the strong possibilities for the second round in the above group. That doesn’t necessarily mean they would be a bad pick if they were taken earlier by the Pirates, it’s just that they weren’t getting as much attention. I will point out a couple names for this group. Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn was mentioned very early in the season as a possible late first round pick. He was even rated 41st at one point, matching up with that second pick. Oregon lefty Matt Krook and Kentucky righty Zack Brown both disappointed this season. They are the types who scouts see more than their results indicate, so both could go higher than the third round to a team dreaming on the upside.
Sheldon Neuse gets split ratings from people, so don’t be surprised if he is gone much earlier, or he lasts until the fourth round. He’s a solid all-around player, who mans shortstop now, but will likely end up somewhere besides the middle of the diamond. J.B. Woodman is a lefty college bat with solid tools across the board. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pirates taking him in the second round, even if most people rate him lower.
