The first big trade before the deadline went down today, and continuing a trend the last few years, the price to add talent was really high. The Boston Red Sox acquired left-handed starter Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres, sending top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza in return. The Red Sox will have control of Pomeranz for two more years after this season, but that’s still a high price.
Baseball America recently rated Espinoza the 15th best prospect in the game in their mid-season update. By comparison, Austin Meadows rated 10th, and Josh Bell rated 38th. Both are closer to the majors than Espinoza, so if we’re going comparable values, I’d think Bell would be the better fit, even though he has a lower ranking.
I don’t expect things to change much with any future trades. Rich Hill will be on the market, and the Rays could deal guys like Jake Odorizzi. But it’s going to cost a lot, even for a short-term rental like Hill. And I’m not sure that makes sense for the Pirates.
The Pirates do need pitching. When you look over their needs, starting pitching seems to be the only glaring area of weakness right now. The offense is good, and the bench has been outstanding. The bullpen has been a weakness this year, but that’s an area that has improved lately. They could always use another guy to add some depth and give the group a boost, just like they did last year when adding Joe Blanton and Joakim Soria. Of course, that boost might also come from the fallout of the rotation, with starters making the switch to the bullpen.
This leaves the rotation as the only serious area of need. They’re getting Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon back after the break. They won’t be moving on from Francisco Liriano anytime soon. That leaves two spots remaining, with Jeff Locke, Jon Niese, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Glasnow, Steven Brault, and Trevor Williams as the top candidates. Locke has been solid lately, while Niese has struggled and is the obvious choice to be replaced.
But if Niese is replaced, they’ve got plenty of prospects who are ready. Kuhl is already in the rotation right now, but might be at risk of losing his spot when Taillon returns. Glasnow could be ready, and should be an upgrade over what Niese has been doing.
I don’t think any of the rookies who could replace Niese or Locke would be able to put up better than league average numbers. That’s still an improvement over what the Pirates have been getting, and what they’ll probably continue to get from Niese. I think you could make an argument that a trade could bring in someone that could be an upgrade, but at what cost?
The market isn’t exactly flooded with pitching right now, and MLB adding the second Wild Card spot a few years ago has made it so that a lot more teams are in contention. That means fewer sellers, which creates a seller’s market. This is what leads to Drew Pomeranz — a guy with a very limited track record of success as a starter — fetching a top 15 pitching prospect.
If the Pirates are going to make a trade for a guy who can upgrade their rotation, they’re going to have to deal some of those upper level prospects, and probably one of their top guys in the upper levels. The need for pitching isn’t just in 2016, but beyond. They not only need Glasnow, but they need guys like Kuhl, Brault, and Williams to help them in future years.
I think everyone is in agreement that you wouldn’t trade Glasnow for help. But I don’t think Kuhl, Brault, or Williams would get the type of upgrade that would justify a trade. You’re better off rolling the dice with those guys, rather than with the type of player you can get in this market by trading a future number four or five starter.
The other valuable pieces the Pirates have are far more valuable to them in the not-too-distant future than any upgrade they’d bring this year. Josh Bell is close to being able to take over as the starting first baseman. Austin Meadows is looking like a future star. Kevin Newman could be the starting shortstop in Pittsburgh by the middle of 2018, if not sooner. Mitch Keller and Gage Hinsz are further away, and have some high upsides, but their prospect status isn’t there to get a big return, and you’re selling low on them by dealing them as lower level pitchers. Guys like Reese McGuire and Ke’Bryan Hayes could play big roles in the future with strong defense at tough to fill spots, with both having unrealized offensive potential at those spots.
The biggest and most expendable trade chip the Pirates have would be Harold Ramirez. They’ve got Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte locked up long-term, and Austin Meadows is ahead of Ramirez. But I don’t think Ramirez alone is enough to land a guy who could make an impact.
I think the team the Pirates should be trading with this month is Indianapolis. They’ve got one primary need, and they have a lot of prospects who are ready to fill that need. The trade deadline always creates this false sense of urgency, where you absolutely have to make a trade just because that’s what this time of year calls for. But it doesn’t make sense for the Pirates, since they can fill their needs from within.
This might not give them the best situation, as these guys aren’t all to their upsides, and rookies can be unreliable when they first arrive. But if you look at the way the team is set up, they’re in a much better position to win in 2017, 2018, and beyond. That’s not to say they can’t contend in 2016, but why spend a lot of resources to make a run this year, when the alternative is getting the prospects up and ready for the next few years? They might fall short with the prospects, or they might see the prospects carrying them to the Wild Card game again. Either way, I think they’d be in a much better position with the rotation heading into 2017 after giving those guys two months in the majors this year.
If they can find another lower cost reclamation project like J.A. Happ last year, then that would be a good investment. But I’d be surprised if they added a big name, or even a Pomeranz-level guy, especially now that they’re starting to turn to the prospects for help.
**Prospect Watch: Catchers on the Mend as Cervelli and Diaz Look Solid in Rehab Games. Good news on the catchers, with the Pirates looking like they’re going to be in a better situation there by the end of the month.
**Yeudy Garcia is Starting to Look Like the Pitcher We Saw Last Year. My latest update on Yeudy Garcia, who is seeing better velocity, better command, and is using his changeup more.
**Francisco Cervelli Will Start a Rehab Assignment Tonight With Indianapolis. The latest he would return is August 2nd.
**Keith Law Places Three Pirates in His Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects List. Another good showing for the Pirates in the top prospect lists.
**Morning Report: All-Star Results and the Indianapolis Rotation. That rotation doesn’t include Glasnow until Monday, and he’s eligible to return to the majors on Monday (although the Pirates are off that day). My guess is that he’ll be returning.
