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Morning Report: Taking a Look at the Remaining Schedule for the Pirates

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Last week, Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs did an article on the strength of the remaining schedule, which showed that the Pittsburgh Pirates had the easiest remaining schedule. As far as off days go, the Pirates went from a team that didn’t seem to have a day off thanks to make-up games on their scheduled off-days, to a team that now has four off-days between today and August 8th.

The Pirates moved to 51-47 on Sunday, which means they have 64 games remaining. Sunday was their 50th home game, which means they have slightly more games on the road left (33 to 31). It might be surprising to hear that ten of those 33 remaining road games are against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that also still has three games left at PNC Park.

The Brewers make up more than 20% of the Pirates remaining schedule. The Pirates are 4-2 so far this year against the Brewers, who dropped to 41-55 with a loss to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. The Cubs are basically neck-and-neck with the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants for the best record in the National League.

Of those three teams, the Pirates have three left versus the Giants in San Francisco. It’s part of their last west coast trip, one in which they also play three against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who currently have a 56-44 record. While they are behind the Giants, those will be big games for the wild card chances of the Pirates. That’s unless you think they can catch the Cubs still.

The Pirates have three games left in Chicago at the end of August. They also have four games against the Cubs at PNC Park to start the last week of the season. That last week is brutal for a team trying to make up ground in the wild card race. Once they are done with the Cubs, then they go to St Louis for the last three games of the season. It’s actually a little worse than just that, because the Pirates still have three games at home against those Nationals, and those games are the weekend before the final week.

If you’re scoring at home, those last ten days of the season have three against Nationals, four against Cubs and three versus the Cardinals. That means the Pirates better be in a good place before those games start. There are bad and good thing about what leads into that final series. The bad is that they have an 11-game road trip right before. The good is that the trip includes the Phillies, Reds and Brewers (with four at PNC against the Reds before the trip).

The schedule seems easy based on strength and they Pirates get a breather with all of the off-days in a short span, but all of those off-days should be a red flag about what comes up after them. From August 19-September 18, the Pirates play 31 games in 31 days. That includes one off-day and one doubleheader.

You can say it’s an easy schedule based on strength, but there is a brutal stretch without much of a break coming up in three weeks. That stretch starts right after their west coast trip against two strong teams. Then the last ten days make it a very difficult finish.

The Pirates need to set the tone in these upcoming games. The Mariners won’t be easy, but it’s only two games and they are home games. Then after Seattle, they play the Brewers, Braves, Reds and Padres. Those are four of the five worst teams in the National League and the Pirates have three games against each of them. It’s a 12-game stretch that they need to do well in, because the season won’t be as easy at the end.

PIRATES GAME GRAPH


Source: FanGraphs

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pirates won 5-4 over the Phillies on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates have today off, followed by two games at home against the Seattle Mariners. Tuesday will see Francisco Liriano match up against Felix Hernandez.

In the minors, Mitch Keller tries to rebound from a start in which he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk in 4.2 innings. That was his third shortest outing this season and the most hits he has allowed in a game this year. Keller is first in the South Atlantic League with an 0.88 WHIP, third with a 2.70 ERA and sixth with 98 strikeouts, though he is one strikeout behind two players tied for fourth. James Marvel starts for Morgantown. He has a .207 BAA, an 0.99 WHIP and a 2.21 GO/AO ratio.

Both Indianapolis and Bradenton are off today. The GCL Pirates will go with Max Kranick and Nestor Oronel is scheduled to start for Bristol.

MLB: Pittsburgh (51-47) vs Mariners (50-48) 7:05 PM 7/26
Probable starter: Francisco Liriano (4.96 ERA, 62:106 BB/SO, 105.1 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (53-50) @ Gwinnett (46-56) 7:05 PM 7/26 (season preview)
Probable starter: Trevor Williams (2.85 ERA, 15:38 BB/SO, 66.1 IP)

AA: Altoona (55-45) vs Erie (42-60) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Alex McRae (7.88 ERA, 11:29 BB/SO, 40.0 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (52-46) @ St Lucie (52-45) 6:30 PM 7/26 (season preview)
Probable starter: JT Brubaker (5.35 ERA, 11:23 BB/SO, 35.1 IP)

Low-A: West Virginia (51-48) @ Rome (41-57) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Mitch Keller (2.70 ERA, 12:98 BB/SO, 93.1 IP)

Short-Season A: Morgantown (18-18) vs Lowell (21-15) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable Starter: James Marvel (3.78 ERA, 8:23 BB/SO, 33.1 IP)

Rookie: Bristol (15-15) @ Burlington (16-14) 7:00 PM (season preview)

GCL: Pirates (12-14) vs Braves (10-16) 12:00 PM (season preview)

DSL: Pirates (16-26) vs Yankees1 (20-21) 10:30 AM (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

Here is Carlos Munoz breaking up a no-hitter in the seventh on Saturday. The camera work is bad, but I included it for two reasons. We don’t get many West Virginia highlights, and it looked like the right fielder could have given that a better effort considering the situation. May not have got it, but give it the old college effort with a no-hitter late in the game.

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

7/24: Tyler Glasnow placed on disabled list. A.J. Schugel recalled.

7/23: Tyler Glasnow recalled. A.J. Schugel optioned to Indianapolis.

7/23: Eric Fryer placed on paternity list. Elias Diaz recalled.

7/22: Erik Kratz clears waivers. Elects free agency.

7/21: Chris Diaz placed on temporary inactive list.

7/20: Jose Regalado assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.

7/20: Ryan Vogelsong assigned to Indianapolis on rehab.

7/19: Francisco Cervelli activated from disabled list. Erik Kratz designated for assignment.

7/19: Jameson Taillon activated from disabled list. Chad Kuhl optioned to Indianapolis.

7/19: Frank Duncan placed on disabled list.

7/19: Elias Diaz assigned to Indianapolis.

7/19: Justin Topa assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.

7/17: Jonathan Schwind assigned to Altoona.

7/16: Elias Diaz assigned to Altoona on rehab.

7/16: Gerrit Cole activated from the disabled list. Josh Bell optioned to Indianapolis.

7/15: Pirates sign Austin Shields. Assigned to GCL Pirates.

7/15: Pirates sign Boomer Synek. Assigned to GCL Pirates.

7/14: Francisco Cervelli assigned to Indianapolis on rehab.

7/14: John Kuchno assigned to Altoona.

7/14: Jordan George promoted to West Virginia

7/13: Daniel Zamora placed on West Virginia disabled list.

7/13: Colten Brewer activated from temporary inactive list. Nick Neumann placed on Bradenton disabled list.

7/12: Rob Scahill claimed off waivers by Brewers.

THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY

Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus a trade of note. We start with one of the best pitchers in the last 30 years for the franchise, possibly the best. Doug Drabek pitched six seasons in Pittsburgh and his 1990 Cy Young award is the last one won by a Pirates’ pitcher. He helped the Pirates to three straight playoffs during their 1990-92 run. Drabek went 92-62, 3.02 in 1,362.2 innings over 196 starts in Pittsburgh. You can read a full bio on Drabek here.

Other players born on this date include 2010-13 outfielder Alex Presley. Ed Sprague, who was the third baseman during the 1999 season. Jack McMahan, a pitcher in 1956 that the Pirates picked up in the November 1955 Rule 5 draft. Also outfielder Marv Rackley, who spent the 1949 season with the Pirates. He turns 95 today and he’s the third oldest living Pittsburgh Pirates player.

On this date in 1896, the Pirates traded first baseman Jake Beckley to the New York Giants for first baseman Harry Davis and cash. The deal was unpopular at the time and did not work out well. Beckley is a Hall of Famer, who was the Pirates career home run leader until being passed by Honus Wagner in 1908. He also had a strong career after the deal, while Davis lasted with Pittsburgh until 1898 when he was sold to Louisville. You can read more on this deal, the players listed above and a 1956 game recap, in the link at the top of this section.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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