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Pirates Trade Mark Melancon to Nationals

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Yesterday we heard that the Pittsburgh Pirates were getting interest on Mark Melancon, with the Nationals, Indians, and Giants as teams who were pursuing him. What we didn’t hear was whether the Pirates were actually interested in dealing Melancon. Today, Jon Heyman reports that the Pirates would consider Melancon, but only if they got an Aroldis Chapman type return.

Chapman was recently traded for the number 27 prospect in baseball, plus a controllable reliever in Adam Warren, along with an outfield prospect who started the year in the top 100, and a lottery ticket outfielder in the lower levels. I don’t think the Pirates could get that much, but I don’t think it would be out of the question that they’d be able to get a seventh inning reliever and a top 50-100 prospect, considering all of the interest. Jerry Crasnick notes seven teams that are the most aggressive for relievers, which bodes well for a big return possibility for Melancon.

The Pirates are mentioned among that list, and Crasnick explains that in another tweet.

This is similar to what we heard yesterday, with the rumors saying the Pirates were looking for a seventh inning reliever and prospect(s) in return for Melancon. A team looking to upgrade the back of their bullpen could make that work, trading a prospect or two in order to upgrade their seventh inning guy to a closer. Meanwhile, the Pirates would just shift Neftali Feliz and Tony Watson to the 8th and 9th innings, and have the new reliever as the 7th inning replacement.

If the Pirates could pull that off, they wouldn’t lose much from their late inning relievers, while potentially adding a high upside prospect or two in the process.

UPDATE 3:10PM: Ken Rosenthal is reporting the deal is done, though a prospect to be named is part of the deal. Melancon is going to the Nationals for 25-year-old lefty reliever Felipe Rivero. More on this as details emerge.

Jon Heyman (among a few people now) is reporting 21-year-old lefty pitching prospect Taylor Hearn is part of the deal

UPDATE 3:48 PM: Analysis from Tim Williams…

The Pirates have officially announced the deal. This definitely isn’t an Aroldis Chapman type deal, but that’s not to say it’s a bad deal for the Pirates. First, let’s break down the players.

Rivero is a 25-year-old left-handed reliever who has a ton of velocity. He averages 95.4 MPH with his fastball, and has hit as high as 99.8 MPH. He pairs that with a plus-plus changeup, which makes him effective against right-handers. He strikes out a batter an inning, and hasn’t given up a lot of walks. This year he has an ERA of 4.53, but his xFIP is 3.61, with the key factor being that he has only stranded 64.5% of runners (league average is 70%, and he was 72.4% last year). He also gets an above average ground ball rate, at 48.5%.

Hearn was drafted by the Pirates in the 22nd round in 2012 out of high school, but didn’t sign. He also didn’t sign with the Reds as a 36th rounder the following year, nor with the Twins as a 25th rounder in 2014. He did sign as a 5th rounder by the Nationals in 2015, after seeing his fastball velocity jump to 92-95 MPH, with the ability to touch 100. He pairs that with a slider that has gotten a lot of strikeouts. Hearn is also a left-handed pitcher, at 6′ 5″, 210 pounds, and he turns 22 a month from today.

Hearn is pitching in Low-A this year, posting a 3.18 ERA in 22.2 innings, with a 31:7 K/BB ratio. His innings count is low due to a broken foot that kept him out for almost three months. He returned in early July, and has been working as a long reliever in his return, after being a starter at the beginning of the year. The Pirates will likely have him moving back to the rotation in West Virginia.

The Pirates didn’t get a massive return here, as they didn’t get one of the top 100 overall MLB prospects currently in the Nationals’ system. It seems most of the value here came at the major league level. Rivero has the stuff to be a very good late inning lefty, and he’s under control for five more seasons beyond the 2016 season (he will be Super Two eligible after the 2017 season). Getting that type of reliever for five years, with some MLB success already under his belt, is a pretty good return for two months of Melancon.

Hearn isn’t the most polished prospect, but he definitely has upside. A left-hander who can throw in the mid-90s range, hit 100, and pair that fastball with a strong breaking pitch is someone you want to take a chance on. He might not be a top 100 prospect now, but the stuff is there to give him that upside or more in the future if he develops. He also seems like he could be a guy who would settle in as a good late inning reliever with his fastball/slider combo, if the starting thing doesn’t work out.

Overall, this deal makes sense for both teams. The Nationals upgraded their bullpen this year, going from Rivero to Melancon. The Pirates got a good reliever for five years and two months, who has the stuff to be a great reliever for most of that time. They also got a high upside arm in Hearn. That was all for two months of a great reliever (who they could still bring back after the season if they wanted to spend $10 M a year for multiple years on a closer), in a year where they don’t have the strongest chance of making a long playoff run.

This is a good trade return for Melancon, although the perception of the trade is definitely influenced by the current market, as noted so well by JJ Cooper and Dan Szymborski.

The quick analysis of this deal is that the Pirates didn’t get a massive, Chapman-like return here, but they did get a good return, and we could be looking back on this deal very favorably in a few years, or even as early as next year. As a side note, the Pirates will save about $3 M on this deal the rest of the season, which could impact them the next two days in their other moves.

UPDATE 5:30 PM: The Pirates also sent “about” $500K to the Nationals as part of the deal according to Jon Heyman, so that savings is now closer to $2.5M.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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