The Pirates called up Josh Bell today from Indianapolis, although the move will be a short-term deal, as he’s only up for the weekend against the Cubs. Still, that’s not going to stop me from continuing my favorite series on the site, especially when it comes to writing about one of my favorite hitting prospects to follow over the years.
Hopefully Bell will be up for good at some point this year, and at that point, I’ll bring this article out again and update as needed. For now, here is The Book on Josh Bell.
Where Did Bell Come From?
The Pirates broke the old draft system when they signed Josh Bell. He sent a letter to all 30 teams in baseball, telling them not to draft him, as he was intent on going to college. The Pirates ignored this, taking him with the first pick in the second round, and giving him a record shattering $5 M signing bonus. It was rumored that the Red Sox didn’t like this, and led the charge to change the draft spending rules.
You can see their point, because you can’t just go throwing around crazy money at players, ignoring the obvious risks involved with that approach, especially when it’s an unknown talent.
The draft was changed, but the Pirates got Bell before it did change. He has always been a high-profile guy in the system, being in the spotlight since day one. He struggled initially, dealing with a knee injury in his debut in West Virginia in 2012, and missing most of the season due to fluid in the knee that was slow draining. He returned to West Virginia in 2013, and didn’t put up the best numbers. In 2014, he went to Bradenton and finally started showing his offensive potential. He was moved to Altoona at the end of the year, and then moved from right field to first base, clearing his path to the big leagues.
In the last two years, Bell has improved his hitting even more, putting him on the verge of a permanent call to the majors.
The Hitting Tools
When Bell was drafted, he was described as a bat you could dream on. He had plus power potential from both sides, and plus hitting potential from both sides, with the ability to hit .300 with 30+ homers a year. The home run total is in question now, although I wouldn’t rule it out, as Bell is just starting to tap into his power (a lot more on that in the next two sections), and we could see more to come. But there are no questions about his ability to hit in the future.
Bell has a great eye, and some of the best hands in the minors. He can make contact with pretty much anything, but is smart enough to lay off the pitches he should be taking. With his newly added power this year, he not only can make contact with pitches, but also can drive them. The amount of power he could hit for is in question, but at the least, Bell should be a guy who can hit for a .300 average or higher, while getting on base at a large rate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him add a lot of doubles to that mix, with 20+ homers per year.
He’s a switch hitter, so let’s break down the hitting from each side, while keeping in mind that the hand/eye coordination plays from both sides.
The Left-Handed Hitting
Bell’s swing has always looked smooth from the left side, with great contact skills and easy, effortless power potential. Last year he added a leg kick to his swing, in order to try and incorporate the lower half, and tap into that power potential even more. The Pirates started him off with an exaggerated leg kick, almost similar to the one Jung Ho Kang uses, just to get him used to the feeling of the kick. As the season progressed, they slowly shortened the kick, trying to get it to a point where he was more comfortable.
The results were seen by the end of the season. Bell had a .162 ISO in Bradenton from the left side of the plate in 2014. He dropped down to .154 in Altoona the next year from the left side, while he was incorporating the tap. The final adjustment came after his promotion to Indianapolis, getting him to a point where he was comfortable. In a small sample, he had a .207 ISO in Triple-A at the end of the year from the left side.
The adjustments continued this year, and Bell looks comfortable with the change. He did go through a stretch this year where his timing was off, and he tried a few different things to get back on track, including an exaggerated crouch. He’s a guy who likes to tinker with his swing, making constant small adjustments, but still keeping the same basic principles. The results this year have continued what we saw in Indianapolis last year, with a .217 ISO from the left side, along with ten homers in 212 plate appearances.
Looking at the video, you can really see the difference in the swing, and how much Bell is using his lower half. Here was his swing in 2015, before the adjustments.
You can see that the swing is easy and smooth, but the lower half wasn’t incorporated as much. Now, here is the swing exactly one year later, at the start of this season, with the shorter leg kick adjustment.
The swing now looks smooth, with the lower half incorporated, and his entire body weight being driven into the ball. Bell has been stronger from the left side in the past, and he’s gotten even better this year. That will continue to be his strong side, as the swing looks so effortless, and is now generating some power.
The Right-Handed Hitting
The leg kick adjustments were also taking place from the right side. Prior to this, Bell’s swing from the right side was a mess. He liked an extreme open stance so that he could see the ball earlier. The Pirates liked him getting squared up sooner with his weight on his back leg. The combination led to a two-part swing that would look awkward at times, and was very top half heavy, with no power at all. Here is a look from behind the cage, prior to the 2015 season.
While Bell had decent power numbers from the left side before the leg kick, the power just wasn’t there from the right side. He did have a .175 ISO in 97 plate appearances in Bradenton, thanks to a late surge before his promotion to Altoona in 2014. But he dropped down to an .037 ISO from the left side in 108 plate appearances in Altoona in 2015, and was at .029 in Indianapolis that year. Part of the problem here is that Bell didn’t get as much time in games to work on the right side, since he didn’t see as many lefties.
Over the off-season, Bell worked on getting more comfortable with the swing, and getting to a point where it felt natural to him. While the left side has a leg kick, the right side has been reduced to a toe-tap. Here was the swing at the start of Spring Training, looking almost identical to the one from the left side.
Here was the new swing from the right side when I saw him in Indianapolis in mid-May.
The results speak for themselves. Bell always had the ability to hit for average and get on base from the right side, due to his outstanding hands, and his plate patience. But this year he is taking that to a new level, and adding some power to his swing. He currently has a .310/.412/.510 line in 100 plate appearances from the right side, with a .200 ISO. That has been the biggest change this year, and it was noticeable before the season. Bell has now gone from a guy with questions about whether he could be a platoon player in the future, to a guy who is equally as dangerous from both sides of the plate.
The Defense
With no space in the outfield, and plenty of outfield prospects in the system, the Pirates decided to move Bell to first base in the off-season in 2014. The move was also fueled by the fact that it could get his bat to the majors quicker, and due to the fact that they didn’t have a long-term first base option in the minors.
The transition has been difficult for Bell, as you’d expect from a career outfielder who is learning the infield. He’s been built up from scratch, learning a new arm angle to throw from, learning when to extend from the bag to receive throws, and adjusting to the speed of the game.
To his credit, Bell continues putting in the work, and then some. When I was in Indianapolis in May, I watched him working with Indianapolis Manager Dean Treanor and Pirates Infield Coordinator Gary Green on a few basic things like receiving throws, when to move off the bag after a pickoff, and the throw down to second base. The session was about 30 minutes, and this came before early work with the rest of the infield, which all came before the normal pre-game infield work.
Bell looks a lot more comfortable at the position this year than he did last year. He’s learning the basics, and is to the point where he needs game experience to learn what to do in certain situations, especially focusing on where to go for each play. That transition is easier for a guy like John Jaso, who knew where a first baseman had to be with his time in the infield. It’s a bit more difficult for Bell, moving in from the outfield. There are some things that still look awkward, such as his throwing arm being extended high above his head, in an extreme attempt to get the arm up higher to change from his lower outfield slot. That extreme arm positioning has gradually gone down as Bell gets more comfortable.
He looks improved this year, but still has a ways to go. He’s not Pedro Alvarez-level bad at the position, but is still a below-average defender. The biggest adjustment he’s still making is to the speed of the game. He struggles at times with hard hit balls down the line, or to his backhand, especially when he’s trying to do a few things in a row, like make the backhand grab and throw over to second. He also struggles with hard hit balls right at him, not exactly looking smooth while fielding the ball. That all could improve with time and more work at the position.
What is Bell’s Upside?
In the long-term, Bell is a guy who can be a .300 or better hitter, with a high OBP, plenty of doubles, and 20+ homers per year. He’s a potential impact hitter, and we’ve only just started to see his power play through in the stat line. I don’t think he will be a guy who could provide positive defensive value, but he has plenty of hitting skills to make up for the defense.
In the short-term, I think he could improve on John Jaso’s offense after he adjusts to the new level. There’s more power potential with Bell, and the hands and plate patience should translate over smoothly to Major League pitching. Defensively, Jaso has him beat, and the Pirates would see a downgrade with Bell. So don’t expect Sean Rodriguez to go anywhere as the late inning defensive replacement.
It looks like Bell is only up for the weekend against the Cubs, and will go back down after that. Jaso struggled in June, but is doing better so far in July. Still, I think it could be justified for Bell to come up and take some starts from Jaso, easing him into the starting role until he shows he’s ready for the everyday job. The only problem is that the Pirates are getting plenty of production from David Freese, who is also part of the first base situation, and calling Bell up would likely mean a decrease in the playing time for Freese. Or it could push Adam Frazier back to the minors. For this to happen, the Pirates would probably need an injury, or to trade Jaso, or to wait until September. I’d expect Bell to come up for good at some point this year, and to be the starter in 2017.
