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The Book on Tyler Glasnow

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My favorite series to write this year has easily been “The Book on…”, which is a series that gives a full scouting report on a player getting the call to the majors, while digging through the site’s archives for the history of the player. With the Pirates calling up top prospect Tyler Glasnow today, I knew I was in for a big edition of the series.

Going back through the site’s history, I was able to find hundreds of articles and game reports on Glasnow, dating back to the point before anyone was mentioning him as one of the best prospects in the game. It was fun reading those, as it showed the path he took from just another over-slot prep pitcher in the 5th round to one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Normally I focus more on the current report, with some history mixed in. In this case, I felt there were areas where the history played a bigger role. This led to a much more expansive article than past reports on other players, which you’d kind of expect anyway from the top prospect. Let’s be honest. You’re not doing anything at work today except counting down the hours until Glasnow starts. The longer article will help the time fly by.

Here is The Book on Tyler Glasnow, giving you what to expect in today’s debut.

Where Did Glasnow Come From?

Glasnow is by far the biggest success story the Pirates have in terms of both drafting and developing a prospect. He was a complete unknown when he was drafted in the 5th round of the 2011 draft. Baseball America didn’t have him as a top prospect in the country, and didn’t even have him as a top prospect in Southern California. To get an idea of how Glasnow was perceived at the time of the draft, here are a few comments.

The first is a comment I made about the pitchers in my overall recap of the 2011 draft.

“If I had to choose between the Pirates signing their picks from rounds four through six or their picks from rounds seven through nine, I’d take the latter. In fact, Clay Holmes (9) may be the most intriguing player they selected apart from Cole, Bell and Dickerson. Colten Brewer (4) and Tyler Glasnow (5) look more like eighth to tenth round picks.”

At the time, that was the perception from the national rankings. The Pirates also obviously felt this way, since they gave Glasnow a $600,000 bonus, and gave Holmes twice that amount, despite the difference in rounds. And here is a random comment on the site when Glasnow received his over-slot bonus.

“Great for this kid.  If the Bucco’s can toss that kind of money around to this kid, surely they can pay up for Josh Bell.
We’ll find out if the Bucco’s are geniuses or idiots on this one in time.
*What leverage did a 7th rounder, not in the top 100 Propsects, not in the country, or region, but PORTION OF A STATE (acknowledged SoCal is a hotbed), going to a never before heard of University, have to get a deal like this?  I hope he doesn’t turn out to be Quinton Miller, Jr.”

So far it’s looking more towards the geniuses side of that debate in terms of this pick. But a lot of that has to do with what came after the point when he was drafted.

By the end of his first season, Glasnow saw his velocity tick up from 90-93 MPH to sitting 93-94 and touching 96. He also saw improvements with his curveball, turning into a potential plus offering at the time. He quickly started looking like a top prospect, and a guy who could join Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon at the top of the Pirates’ rotation one day. (Fun note about that last link: Luis Heredia being mentioned in the same group as Cole and Taillon, back at a time when Heredia was posting a 2.71 ERA as a starter at age 17 in the NYPL, and hitting mid-90s with good control).

The 2013 season came along, and Glasnow broke out in a big way in West Virginia, posting a 2.18 ERA and a 164:61 K/BB ratio in 111.1 innings. At that point, the fastball was sitting mid-90s, touching 98, and the curveball looked like a plus pitch. He just needed to fix his control and add a changeup, two themes that still exist today.

Glasnow has improved his control over the years. He dropped from a 14% walk rate in West Virginia to 11.6% in Bradenton to 7.7% in Altoona. That rate has gone back up in Triple-A, with a 13.7% walk rate this year. On the flip side of that, he’s been absolutely unhittable. In West Virginia he had a .141 BAA. That went up slightly to .171 in Bradenton, then .179 in Altoona, and .174 in Indianapolis. The fact that he hasn’t seen an increase in hits as he moves up the ranks speaks highly of his stuff.

It’s easy to see how he’s one of the best prospects in the game right now. He has two plus pitches, and he’s still young enough to figure out the control and the changeup, not turning 23 until the end of August. His stuff is dominant when it’s on, and if the control gets fixed just a bit, he can be a top of the rotation starter. If he can fully overcome the control issues, we’re talking about one of the best starters in baseball, and the best of the Pirates’ starters, Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon included.

The Fastball

The best pitch for Glasnow from day one has been his fastball. When he entered the system, it was a 90-93 MPH pitch, with the usual promise due to his projectable frame. He added velocity almost instantly, getting into the system and getting some weight on his frame. Here is Larry Broadway talking about that prior to the 2013 season.

“He’s such a long and skinny kid,” Pirates farm director Larry Broadway said. “He got in the weight room, got on a throwing program, and the guy’s done a great job. He’s just gotten more physical. The ability was there as far as arm action and delivery and size and all that stuff. We knew we could take a chance that with some strength and some physical maturity that we could throw harder. Turned out he started chucking pretty good.”

The fastball usually sits 94-96 MPH, touching as high as 98-99, and occasionally hitting triple digits in the past. There are times when the velocity will be a bit lower, sitting in the 92-94 MPH range, touching 96. But what really makes the fastball a devastating pitch isn’t the speed, but the combination of the speed and the angle.

 

Glasnow Fastball

Glasnow throws from an overhand arm slot, and has a 6′ 8″ frame. The result is that the fastball has a big downward plane, while showing plenty of movement. The combination of his velocity, plus such a steep downward plane makes the fastball extremely difficult to hit. That does require that the pitch is under control, which I’ll get to in a bit.

Most pitchers in the Pirates’ system add a two-seamer, aimed at getting quick outs and working down in the zone. That’s not an issue for Glasnow, and there have never been plans to add that second fastball. A big reason is because he already has the downward movement on his four seam. The two-seam might be difficult to throw as well, since it’s generally best from a different arm slot than the one Glasnow uses.

The Curveball

Glasnow’s curveball is a plus offering, with a lot of break. It comes out of the hand looking like a fastball, but has a sharp snap at the end, dropping either down in the zone, or dropping out of the bottom of the zone to get a swinging strike. It also has some right-to-left movement, allowing him to back door the pitch to lefties, or throw it inside to right-handers.

 

Glasnow Curve

That pitch is actually something Glasnow has been working on this year. The curveball is outstanding when he needs it for a strikeout, because he can drop it out of the zone, fooling hitters early in thinking it’s a fastball.

Glasnow Curve Strikeout

The problem is that Glasnow can’t consistently drop it in the zone for a strike early in the count, or when he’s behind in the count. This leads to a problem when the fastball isn’t on, as he doesn’t have the curveball to bail him out. This also allows opposing hitters to sit on the fastball early in the count, knowing that the curveball isn’t a threat for strikes. Or, when the fastball is off, it allows opposing hitters to just take the entire time, which leads to a lot of those outings in Triple-A where Glasnow has no hits, a lot of strikeouts, and a lot of walks. He’s either getting ahead of guys and they can’t do anything at that point, or he’s falling behind and can’t bail himself out. He might have a more difficult time against MLB hitters with this approach when the fastball command isn’t working for him.

The Changeup

The funny thing about the changeup with Glasnow is that, going through the site’s archive, every single year I wrote a story where he said he was working on the pitch. Here was his comment in 2013, noting that he didn’t throw the pitch a lot in 2012, and had a new grip that allowed him to throw the pitch like the fastball, only slower than before.

“So far it’s been ten times better than it was last year, just throwing it more and having opportunities to throw it,” Glasnow said of the change. “It helped a lot. I’m getting a better feel for all of my pitches.”

Granted, he was originally throwing the pitch in the low-90s, and it didn’t have a lot of movement. He then dropped to the upper-80s, adding some separation (while also seeing his fastball velocity go up).

When I talked to him prior to the 2014 season, he said that the Pirates made him stress the pitch in Bradenton in 2013, and that he didn’t trust it at the start of the year, but got more comfortable with it as the season went on.

“As I started throwing it, I just slowly fell in love with it,” Glasnow said. “The thing is too, when my fastball wasn’t working and my changeup was, it was always something I could go to. If my changeup wasn’t working and my fastball was, it was always something I could go to. As opposed to last year, if one pitch fell, I pretty much had nothing. It kind of gave me more of an arsenal, and I really enjoyed throwing it.”

He went to the AFL at the end of the 2014 season, and said that something clicked with the pitch. His focus in the fall league was to throw the curveball for first pitch strikes, and improve the changeup. He worked with Pitching Coordinator Scott Mitchell, and started throwing the pitch just like his fastball, seeing a decrease in velocity, and some late fade.

“I think it was the repetition over time,” Glasnow said about how the changeup improved. “I used to just throw it like a fastball, and I used to probably just let up, and I wasn’t really confident in it. It used to be a speed thing. It was an alright changeup, but it was really fast, so I turned it over like you were supposed to do. I never even tried it.”

Every year, Glasnow said that he saw improvements, and that was true. He just didn’t see big improvements, and a main reason for that is that he wasn’t using the pitch in games. Looking through the game reports from 2013, 2014, and 2015, I saw many reports that said the same thing: Glasnow either didn’t throw the changeup, or only threw it two or three times in the outing. There were a few times where he was forced to throw the pitch, regardless of the count. This came up again this year, where the Pirates forced him to increase his usage of the pitch. But that was also short-lived, and he went back to avoiding the pitch in recent starts.

I don’t like speculating on what a player is thinking or how he feels, but I don’t think it’s speculation that Glasnow doesn’t trust his changeup. He barely throws the pitch in games, and has to be forced to use it. Neal Huntington constantly has mentioned that he’s doing opposing hitters in the minors a favor by going to the changeup, since he can dominate them with his fastball and curveball. That might be the reason why he avoids it. At the same time, he’ll never see continued development with the pitch if he doesn’t use it, and once he’s in the majors, the Pirates will be beyond the point where they can force him to throw it X times per game, and in situations where you wouldn’t throw it competitively. At some point, he’s just going to have to trust the pitch.

The Stolen Bases

One issue with Glasnow is that he is very slow to the plate, which makes him prone to stolen bases. That can be an issue when you consider his tendency to allow free passes. A walk can very easily turn into a double with him. He’s done things to cut down on this, such as work on his pickoff move, and adjust his hold times. Some of the stolen base issues in the minors are also due to the fact that he’s been more focused on making his pitches, and on his command from the stretch, rather than the runner. He’s never going to be quick to the plate, so he’ll need to continue improving on those other tactics to limit the running game. Or just don’t allow base runners, which he’s very good at from time to time.

What is Glasnow’s Upside?

It seems like every year when the ZiPS projections come out, Tyler Glasnow has the same player comp: A.J. Burnett. Assuming we’re talking about the Burnett in his first six years, playing for the Marlins and the Blue Jays and putting up 5 WAR seasons, that’s not bad. And I’m not a guy who likes player comps, but this one is kind of fitting.

Burnett was never really big on throwing his changeup. He mostly worked off the fastball and curveball. He threw the changeup 6.2% of the time in his career, and early in his career he was throwing it less than 5% of the time. Based on his history so far in the minors, I wouldn’t expect Glasnow to use his changeup much either.

Then there’s the control issues. Burnett had an 11.7% walk rate in his first 80 starts in the majors, before cutting down the walks to below 10% for most of the rest of his career. Glasnow will almost certainly have walk issues at the start of his career as well.

The key difference here is that Burnett had a good curveball which allowed him to rebound from control issues, and allowed him to go without throwing the changeup often. It would be nice if Glasnow learned the changeup, but I’m not optimistic he’ll ever get comfortable enough to lean on the pitch. So he will need that curveball to improve early in the count in order to make it as a two pitch guy with control issues, like Burnett.

On a broader scale, I think Glasnow can eventually be a top of the rotation starter. And if he improves the control, the curveball command, and gets comfortable with the changeup, he could emerge as one of the best pitchers in the game. In the short-term, I’m not sure if he’s actually ready to come close to that upside. The control problems are still a concern, and while he’s coming off a start with one walk in six innings, I’d want to see more of that before assuming his control problems are to the point where he’s MLB ready. For now, it seems the Pirates could be getting one of two versions of Glasnow when he goes out there for a start, with the fastball command dictating which version of the top prospect shows up.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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