31.7 F
Pittsburgh

First Pitch: Last Off-Season’s Mistake That the Pirates Can’t Repeat in 2017

Published:

Last night I wrote about the upcoming off-season for the Pirates, and how they don’t have many needs. Prior to this season, they had some big questions, such as their starting catching job, a few long-term relief options, the bench, and the fallout of the rotation after the prospects arrived. Now, they have just that last group remaining, and possibly the need for more strength in the late innings from the bullpen.

The starting pitching has received a long-term boost this year with a few promotions. Jameson Taillon looks like he’s ready to join Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation next year. Chad Kuhl looks like he has locked down a spot. And whether you like it or not, the Pirates traded for Drew Hutchison to be in the rotation next year, so you can expect him to open the season in Pittsburgh, almost looking like their big reclamation project.

That leaves one rotation spot open, and a few prospects still in Triple-A, with the most notable guy being Tyler Glasnow. And this creates a similar situation to what the Pirates were dealing with last year.

Last off-season, the Pirates knew they’d have a lot of starting pitching options who could arrive by mid-season. So far, they’ve seen Taillon and Kuhl stick around, while Glasnow and Steven Brault have each made starts. Knowing they’d have the prospects arriving, they adjusted their off-season approach, going for guys who could bridge the gap to the prospects, rather than possibly blocking those prospects.

It was a plan that didn’t work. Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, and Juan Nicasio struggled in the rotation, and not all of the prospects were ready on time to replace them. In fact, you could still argue that Glasnow isn’t ready right now, with the only arguments in favor of him being the suggestion that he’s better than those three (a low bar if there ever was one), or an argument based on his upside, with the idea that the high future upside automatically means he will have X value right now, despite the actual stuff suggesting he might not be better than those three pitchers right now.

Glasnow just turned 23 years old yesterday. By comparison, Taillon will turn 25 this off-season. Glasnow is still very young, and there’s no reason that he has to be up now, or that he has to be up at the start of the 2017 season. If he comes up now, and remains in the majors for the next six years, he will be a free agent heading into his age 29 season. The Pirates would essentially be rushing him up now, when he doesn’t look like he’s near his upside, and then losing out on some prime years down the line, when he might be at that upside which can’t be matched by anyone else in the system.

I don’t think Glasnow is the answer for the number five spot in the rotation next year, at least not at the start of the year. And I also don’t think the Pirates should be relying on Steven Brault or Trevor Williams for the role on Opening Day, since that would give them a rotation loaded with very young, unpredictable arms, plus Hutchison, who is also unpredictable due to his reclamation status.

But then the Pirates also can’t afford to make the same mistake they made last year, where they don’t address the rotation, and rely on the prospects. Neal Huntington has talked constantly about how you need 7-8 or more starting pitchers. He has talked about how they don’t like to bring prospects up right when they hit their readiness curve, but when they’re deep in that curve. And those theories make plenty of sense, even if a lot of fans object to not bringing a prospect up the second he looks ready.

But those theories clash with what the Pirates did last year. By waiting on the prospects, and letting the prospects impact their off-season approach, they not only limited their depth, but they also made it so that the prospects needed to come up as soon as possible.

That’s why the biggest need for the Pirates this off-season is a reliable starting pitcher. Maybe they fix Ivan Nova, and actually try to aggressively sign him, which they didn’t do with J.A. Happ this past off-season. Maybe they pull the trigger on a trade, when the prices aren’t as insane as they were at the trade deadline. Either way, they need someone added to this group who isn’t a prospect, and who isn’t a reclamation project.

And if Glasnow looks ready, and they have five good starters, then that would be a great situation. A starter will eventually struggle, or someone will get injured. You can never have too much depth. And by having that depth, you can allow Glasnow, Brault, and anyone else to get more time in Triple-A, and get further on the readiness curve, just like Huntington always talks about.

There’s no reason to repeat last year’s mistake, and with so few needs, and money to spend, it only makes sense to add to this rotation for the 2017 season.

**Polanco Homers Twice, Nova Pitches a Complete Game in Pirates 7-1 Win. Alan Saunders has the live recap from PNC Park, with some interesting information on Gregory Polanco’s approach, and his change in bat this year.

**Prospect Watch: Kingham, Hinsz and Duncan Throw Shutout Ball. Live reports on Clay Holmes and Gage Hinsz in tonight’s Prospect Watch.

**Pirates Notes: Josh Bell’s Defense Continues to be a Work in Progress. Alan Saunders looks at the defensive work for Bell.

**Austin Meadows Fully Recovered From Hamstring Injury, Learning Left Field. Brian Peloza reports that Austin Meadows is feeling better with his hamstring issue, and that he’s getting time in left field.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

Related Articles

Latest Articles