31.2 F
Pittsburgh

Morning Report: Just How Good Has Mitch Keller Been This Season?

Published:

Last night we learned that Mitch Keller was going to Bradenton to finish his season. With eight days left in their regular season, he could possibly make two starts and then possibly pitch in the playoffs. The first round of the Florida State League playoffs are a best-of-three series, so only the first two games are guaranteed. So we might see one regular season start and one playoff start during one of those first two games. Either way, Keller is capping off an incredible season with a chance at helping Bradenton to a league title.

If we go back to last year, it would be hard to predict this type of success. We knew he had the ability to be a very good pitcher in the future, and we knew that an Opening Day assignment this season at West Virginia was a strong possibility for him. That being said, there is no way that, based on his performance in Bristol last year, you could expect him to be this good.

Keller pitched only 19.2 innings last year for Bristol due to forearm tightness at the end of Extended Spring Training (EST). That’s all you see on paper as far as innings go, but he put in time in EST and then more in the Fall Instructional League. Those extra innings you don’t see, allowed him to continue to pitch late into this season. Another thing that helped him pitch this late is how effective he has been with his pitch count and low stress pitches.

In those 19.2 innings last year, Keller issued 16 walks. That was part of the reason it was hard to predict such a breakout for him until we got to see him this spring, which I will get to shortly. Keller has improved his command to the point that he has now thrown 104.2 more innings than last year, while walking a total of 18 batters. That’s an average of 7.3 walks per nine innings last year, down to 1.3 per nine innings this year. The lower walk total equaled more efficient innings, which has allowed him to continue to stay in the rotation, even as his innings continue to climb.

The Pirates have given him some breaks this season as well. If you look at his recent starts, you will see extra days rest between many of them. He also got a break during the All-Star break. He participated in the game and got the starting nod, but then he went 12 days in between regular season starts. It’s basically what we have seen with Jameson Taillon this season, as the Pirates limited his innings. Just like Keller, Taillon has been efficient with his pitches by limiting walks and stress pitches, allowing him to put in more innings than we expected.

Keller came to Spring Training and looked like an improved pitcher. Tim Williams got to see him in the GCL after he signed in 2014, then in EST last year, then in Bristol and finally, in Spring Training this year. That allowed for comparisons between his old delivery and a cleaned up delivery this spring. You can see the Spring Training article here, which is worth checking out now with everything we know about his season. The cleaner mechanics led to better fastball command, more velocity, and a better command of his curve. Keller also improved his changeup, giving him three pitches he could use at any time. That last sentence is important, because it’s not something we saw from Jameson Taillon or Tyler Glasnow in Low-A.

Taillon and Glasnow are the players you want to be compared to because they have been top prospects since Low-A ball. Both of them were fastball/curveball pitchers while with West Virginia. They difference is that Taillon worked up in the zone a lot, while Glasnow didn’t exactly have a zone. He just got the ball to the plate quickly and Low-A hitters had no chance against him. He threw a changeup, but it was rarely used and not even as good as it is now, which still needs work.

As far as the age comparison, Keller turned 20 years old just before Opening Day this season. When Taillon made his debut in Low-A, he was about six months younger. Glasnow turned 20 near the end of his West Virginia season. So those two were younger, but it’s not much of a difference.

Where Keller has the big advantage over those two from their Low-A days, is that he is already throwing on a nice downward plane with strong command down in the zone. That is something that Taillon didn’t really have down until this year and Glasnow is still working on. Even in his rehab start last night, Glasnow was up in the zone all game. I’ve seen Keller pitch seven times this season and every game he has been down in the zone most or all of the game.

Keller has a curveball that you would rate as an above average pitch. Not quite the quality of the other two from their Low-A days, but he commands it better. With Keller hitting 97 now, the velocity is basically the same for all three at that point. Then you add in that Keller has a third pitch he can use, which the other two did not. When you add in the command down in the zone, his ability to maintain his velocity late, plus that changeup, you have to give him the overall advantage. He has also surpassed their inning totals already, while adding velocity as the season has gone along.

Coming into this regular season, we considered him to be very improved over last year. That was from everything we saw in Spring Training, compared to what we have seen in the past. The cleaner mechanics, the easy delivery that produced added velocity, as well as the improved secondary pitches. He has not only proven that to be true, he continues to improve as the season goes along and exceeded expectations.

The promotion to Bradenton doesn’t do anything to speed up his arrival in Pittsburgh. It’s too late in the season to really mean anything significant. It allows him to get a taste of a higher level, while also (possibly) getting a playoff start. Keller has had an incredible season this year. He is going to lead the South Atlantic League with an 0.92 WHIP. His 2.46 ERA has him second in the league and his 131 strikeouts currently ranks him sixth. Between the stats, the quality of stuff, and the scouting reports, he has firmly established himself as one of the top five prospects for the Pirates.

**It’s interesting to note that last August 28th, the Pirates still had six teams with a chance to make the playoffs. Now there are technically four, although I wouldn’t call Morgantown or West Virginia anything more than unrealistic at this point. Morgantown’s elimination number is two with nine days left, while West Virginia is at three with eight games left.

Bradenton won the first half title, which always seems odd to me because you’re guaranteed a playoff spot no matter how bad you do over the last 70 games. For the record, they are currently 29-32 in the second half, which has them in fifth place. They also have the second best record in their division, yet none of that matters because they won their first half title. Altoona makes the playoffs whether they finish first or second. I’m sure they would rather be first, but they’re only 3.5 games ahead of second at this point, so nothing is guaranteed yet. It looks like we could have two playoff teams though, and as we found out late last night, Bradenton made a key playoff addition in Mitch Keller, while Altoona got Nick Kingham, who starts tomorrow night.

PLAYOFF PUSH

The Pirates trail the second wild card spot by 1.5 games.

Indianapolis has been eliminated from the playoffs. Their season ends September 5th.

Altoona leads their division by 2.5 games. The top two teams in the division go to the playoffs, with the first place team getting the home field advantage in the first round.

Bradenton won the first half title. They have home field advantage in the playoffs.

West Virginia is tied for third place in their division, trailing first by six games.

Morgantown has been eliminated from the division race. They are 7.5 games back for the lone wild card spot.

Bristol has been eliminated from the playoffs. Their season ends September 1st.

The GCL Pirates have been eliminated from the playoffs. Their season ends September 1st.

The DSL season has ended.

PIRATES GAME GRAPH


Source: FanGraphs

TODAY’S SCHEDULE

Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pirates won 9-6 over the Brewers on Saturday night. Ivan Nova gets the ball this afternoon, making his fifth start since joining the Pirates. He threw a complete game in his last start, allowing one run at home against the Astros. In his prior two starts combined, he gave up five runs on 15 hits and no walks in 9.1 innings. The Brewers will counter with Chase Anderson, who has a 4.99 ERA in 119 innings, with 98 strikeouts and a 1.42 WHIP. In his last start, he allowed three runs over five innings against Colorado. He faced the Pirates twice in July, allowing four runs total on ten hits and four walks over nine innings.

In the minors, Frank Duncan gets the start tonight and he has a chance to take over first place in the International League ERA title race, if he can put in enough innings. He is currently about 6-7 innings short, though he will need to go long in each of his last two starts to have enough innings when the season ends. Clay Holmes looks to bounce back from a poor start in which he allowed four runs over 2.2 innings. In each of the last three months, he has a sub-4.00 ERA.

Bradenton has a doubleheader today after a rain out last night. Yeudy Garcia gets the start for Bradenton. He ranks eighth in the Florida State League with a 2.74 ERA and second with 120 strikeouts, seven behind the leader. Garcia’s ERA was 2.51 before the All-Star break and it has been 2.95 since. Despite the slight increase, his WHIP was 1.60 in the first half, and it’s 1.16 in the second half. Gage Hinsz threw seven shutout innings against Lexington in his last start. That was five days after giving up eight runs in 3.2 innings against that same Lexington team.

The GCL Pirates are off today. The DSL season ended.

MLB: Pittsburgh (66-61) @ Brewers (56-73) 2:10 PM
Probable starter: Ivan Nova (3.20 ERA, 1:18 BB/SO, 25.1 IP)

AAA: Indianapolis (65-69) @ Toledo (63-72) 6:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Frank Duncan (1.94 ERA, 23:83 BB/SO, 102.0 IP)

AA: Altoona (72-60) vs Erie (57-76) 6:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Clay Holmes (4.27 ERA, 59:98 BB/SO, 130.2 IP)

High-A: Bradenton (67-62) vs Charlotte (63-65) 1:00 PM DH (season preview)
Probable starter: Yeudy Garcia (2.74 ERA, 52:120 BB/SO, 118.1 IP) and Buddy Borden (6.91 ERA, 23:29 BB/SO, 43.0 IP)

Low-A: West Virginia (67-64) vs Lakewood (67-64) 2:05 PM  (season preview)
Probable starter: Gage Hinsz (3.76 ERA, 20:59 BB/SO, 81.1 IP)

Short-Season A: Morgantown (32-35) @ Mahoning Valley (33-33) 4:05 PM (season preview)
Probable Starter: Danny Beddes (2.11 ERA, 18:49 BB/SO, 59.2 IP)

Rookie: Bristol (24-39) vs Princeton (34-27) 6:00 PM (season preview)

GCL: Pirates (21-33) vs Tigers East (20-36) 12:00 PM 8/29 (season preview)

DSL: Pirates (27-42) (season preview)

HIGHLIGHTS

Here are two recent highlights from Morgantown. Albert Baur homers…

Chris Harvey drives in Baur with the walk-off run

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

8/27: John Kuchno promoted to Indianapolis.

8/25: Nick Kingham assigned to Altoona. Chase Simpson activated from disabled list.

8/22: Kyle Lobstein activated from the disabled list.

8/21: Evan Piechota promoted to Morgantown.

8/21: Yeudy Garcia activated from disabled list. Henry Hirsch placed on temporary inactive list.

8/20: Jung Ho Kang placed on disabled list. Josh Bell recalled from Indianapolis.

8/20: Stephen Alemais promoted to West Virginia. Alfredo Reyes placed on disabled list.

8/20: Ke’Bryan Hayes assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.

8/20: Pirates release Edgardo Leon

8/18: Pirates release Josh Outman.

8/18: Juan Diaz assigned to Bristol.

8/18: Jeremias Portorreal and Gabriel Brito promoted to GCL Pirates.

8/17: Josh Smith assigned to Indianapolis.

8/15: Yeudy Garcia and Chase Simpson placed on disabled list.

8/15: Hector Garcia assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab.

8/15: Nick Kingham and Justin Topa assigned to Bradenton.

8/14: Tyler Glasnow assigned to Altoona on rehab.

8/14: Jason Creasy assigned to Altoona.

THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY

Five former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus two trades of note. Starting with the transactions, we have the 1996 deal that brought Jason Schmidt to the Pirates in exchange for Denny Neagle. The two pitchers both had their moments for their new club, but the Pirates got nothing from the two minor league players that were thrown into the deal. The Pirates added Ron Wright and Corey Pointer, adding a lot of power to the farm system, though neither made the majors with the Pirates. Wright actually did get called up, but injured his wrist and never played.

On this date in 1988, the Pirates traded for Ken Oberkfell. They sent Tommy Gregg to the Braves four days later and received cash in return. Oberkfell was known as a decent hitter with a strong glove, but he hit just .181 in 34 games for the Pirates.

Former players born on this date include:

T.J. Beam, 2008 relief pitcher. Had a 4.14 ERA in 45.2 innings over 32 appearances.

Mark Ryal, 1990 outfielder. He went 1-for-12 in nine late-season games.

Wally Roettger, 1934 outfielder. The Pirates acquired him in a four-player trade with the Reds. He hit .245 in 47 games with Pirates.

Charlie Grimm, first baseman from 1919 until 1924. He hit .286 in 770 games with the Pirates, driving in 369 runs. He was sent to the Cubs in a six-player deal after the 1924 season, which was covered here. The deal included the Pirates’ all-time win leader Wilbur Cooper and Hall of Fame shortstop Rabbit Maranville.

Bill Stuart, 1895 shortstop. Hit .247 in 19 late-season games for the Pirates.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

Related Articles

Latest Articles