The Pirates made several trades this year that sent out some of their outfield prospects. They sent Harold Ramirez away in the Francisco Liriano trade. They sent Tito Polo to the Yankees in the Ivan Nova deal. And in the off-season they traded Keon Broxton as part of the Jason Rogers deal.
Trading from the outfield is definitely trading from a strength for the Pirates. In normal years, the trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco would be the best outfield in baseball. Even this year, that outfield ranks second in the NL in WAR, although Matt Joyce certainly helps make up for McCutchen’s struggles.
The current outfield is under control together through at least the 2018 season. After that, McCutchen becomes a free agent. Starling Marte is under control through 2021, and Gregory Polanco is under control through 2023. And they’ve got Austin Meadows, one of the top prospects in baseball, who will raise questions like “Should the Pirates trade McCutchen before the 2018 season?” and who will extend their talented outfield trio a few more years.
So it makes sense to deal from their outfield depth. The question then becomes, what depth do they still have?
Harold Ramirez entered the season as a top ten prospect in our rankings, but dropped out of the top ten by mid-season, still ending up in the top 15. Tito Polo was in the top 50 pre-season, and made the jump to the number 20 spot by mid-season. We had Keon Broxton as the number 40 prospect in the system before that trade. So the Pirates have traded away some good talent, and three potential starters, although no one on the same level as their current starters or Meadows.
They still have some guys remaining. The biggest prospect right now would be Barrett Barnes. He finished the 2016 season in Altoona with a .306/.377/.477 line in 458 plate appearances. The big concern with Barnes is his track record of injuries, which leads to him being a bit older for his level. But he’s got some raw power and good hitting abilities when healthy, and has played over 400 plate appearances in each of the last two years, with the Pirates being very cautious when he has the slightest issue, just to keep him on the field long-term.
Maybe the highest profile prospect would be Willy Garcia, who is currently on the 40-man roster. I don’t see that lasting, as Garcia wasn’t promoted to the majors when rosters expanded, and for good reason. He once again saw a low average this year, along with low walk totals, high strikeouts, and a drop in his power. It should be noted that he’s a year younger than Barnes, so the Pirates shouldn’t give up on him. But his issues are far more concerning, making it difficult to see him as a top prospect in the system anymore.
Going down to A-ball, you get a few interesting prospects, but none that stand out quite yet. Jordan Luplow made the switch to left field this year, and had a strong second half in Bradenton, posting an .835 OPS. Elvis Escobar shows the raw tools and will occasionally show off his skills in the game, with a lot of tools similar to Ramirez. He just turned 22 on Tuesday, and is in Altoona, so there’s still time for his raw tools to fully develop.
Two prospects from the 2015 draft who showed promise heading into the season were Casey Hughston and Logan Hill. Hughston has struggled all year with strikeouts, due to an inability to hit pitches on the outer third of the plate. Hill struggled in Bradenton, went to West Virginia and struggled some more, then figured it all out in the second half, hitting for an .892 OPS. In either case, it’s hard to call either one a prospect right now, and Hill might have the best shot of jumping into that role.
If you want the high upside guys, you have to go to the short-season teams. That’s where you’ll find the young international guys like Sandy Santos, Yondry Contreras, Michael De La Cruz, Victor Fernandez, Edison Lantigua, and Jeremias Portorreal. Almost all of the guys in this group are interesting only because of raw tools. Likewise, the large majority of guys who are in this group won’t work out, and will probably fade out in the lower levels.
If I had to pick a guy right now from this group who has the best shot of making it, it would be Portorreal. He made some adjustments to his swing this year, and saw some good results in the DSL in the second half, while showing some promise in the GCL. I’ve also liked what I’ve seen from his tools in person both in the Dominican last year, and in the GCL this year. But Portorreal is raw like everyone else, and more of a deep sleeper. It’s just that, out of the outfielders behind Meadows, he’s the type of guy who could break out as a top prospect in the system, even though it’s much more likely that he and the other international guys bust, just because they’re so raw and so far away from the majors.
So there aren’t many guys who could be starters in the system after the trades this year. Barnes might have a shot if he can stay healthy and continue hitting the way he has been this year. They’ve got some deep sleepers who could start if they eventually break out. But there’s no one who I would pencil in to a future lineup, like I would with Meadows.
Of course, some perspective needs to be added here. If you offered every team in baseball the current outfield, plus Meadows, I think every team would take that situation. There might even be a lot of teams who would take just one of the current outfielders and Meadows. So looking for more starters beyond that group of players is just greed, and being spoiled by a great situation.
The important thing here is that the Pirates don’t trade Meadows, which they don’t seem to have intentions on doing. From there, they will have plenty of time to add to their outfield depth, especially since they might not need a third starter until after the 2021 season. That starter might be in the system right now, yet to break out. That’s five seasons from now, and five seasons ago, Gregory Polanco was just starting to become a prospect. It’s also five drafts from now, and five drafts ago, Austin Meadows was a high school junior (and Starling Marte was just about to make his MLB debut).
So the Pirates have traded from a strength and have depleted their outfield depth. This puts a lot of eggs in the Austin Meadows basket, but I think that’s a smart move, since he’s not as high risk as most prospects. And now they will have to replenish that depth, although the good news is that they have a few years before they really need another big prospect to emerge.
**Tony Watson Bounces Back to Close Out Pirates 4-3 Win Over the Cardinals. The Pirates won tonight, and Tony Watson got the save. Alan Saunders talked with Watson and Chris Stewart about the four-seam fastball usage, and some of the problems Watson has had this year.
**After Key Changes in Triple-A, Trevor Williams Ready For His Shot in Pittsburgh. Earlier in the day, before Trevor Williams made his MLB debut and got his first win, Alan Saunders profiled the right-hander, looking at some key changes he made this year.
**Prospect Watch: Bradenton Advances to the Florida State League Finals. Live reports from Bradenton and Altoona, with the Marauders advancing to the finals.
**Injury Updates: Elias Diaz Shut Down For the Year With Leg Infection. The latest injury updates put an end to the season for Elias Diaz, although that’s not a big surprise or a big loss, since he wouldn’t be getting a lot of playing time in September.
**How Alex McRae Turned Things Around and Earned the Game One Start in Altoona. Sean McCool wrote about what led to Alex McRae having a strong season in Altoona. That didn’t hold up tonight, as he struggled late in the Altoona game.
**More Recognition for Barrett Barnes and Mitch Keller. Speaking of the outfield depth, Barnes was the Eastern League Player of the Month, while Keller continues to get recognition.
