30.2 F
Pittsburgh

First Pitch: Has Mitch Keller Passed Tyler Glasnow as the Top Prospect For the Pirates?

Published:

In a few weeks, we will begin the process of forming the season ending rankings for the 2017 Prospect Guide, while also starting the work on the actual Prospect Guide. There will be many rankings decisions we go through between now and the very last minute before the book has to be submitted for publishing. But I already know the very first topic we will be discussing: Is Mitch Keller the best prospect in the system?

The process of putting together the book involves opinions from many different people. It involves opinions from everyone who saw Keller, which would be myself, John Dreker, Wilbur Miller, and Abigail Miskowiec. It involves the opinions of everyone who saw Glasnow — myself, John, Wilbur, Sean McCool, and Brian Peloza. It involves all of the scouting notes we’ve gotten throughout the year on each player. Then it involves grading and comparing them, which is usually a process done by John, Wilbur, and myself on every player, as we get all of the information together and get the grading right.

I already know where my opinion lies, but I can’t say what the book will have, just because I don’t know the grades for everyone else, and then we haven’t debated the placement. So I can’t give you the overall answer right now. But I can give you my answer.

Mitch Keller is the top prospect in the Pirates’ system.

At the start of the season, I was thinking that it would be inevitable that Keller would one day be the top prospect in the system. I’ve seen him develop since he came into the system, going from a guy who touched 94-95 in his pro debut, to hitting 95 pretty consistently last year, but still having control issues. As I reported at the start of Spring Training, he cleaned up his mechanics, leading to much better control this year. He also saw better velocity, sitting 92-95 early, and touching 96 and 97.

When I saw him at the end of April, he was showing that his mechanical fix was working, and he was already working on improving the changeup. At the time, he looked like a guy who would be the top pitching prospect at the end of the year, mostly because Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow were still expected to graduate from prospect status by that point (Glasnow will still have prospect eligibility at the end of the season). I don’t think I would have made that statement at the time if I knew Glasnow would still have eligibility at the end of the year.

But now they do, and I’d make that statement right now that Keller is the better prospect than Glasnow. Before I explain why, it’s important to take a brief break here for a refresher on prospect grades. They’re not about who is the better player right now. That would be Glasnow, easily. Prospect status is about the long-term value of a player, and what he could become. It factors in that upside, and it factors in risk. Glasnow is better than Keller right now, just like Steven Brault is better than Keller right now. But Keller projects to be the better player in the long-run, which is why he’s the top prospect.

So how did it go from “he could be the top pitching prospect once Glasnow graduates” to “he’s the top prospect overall, even with Glasnow considered”?

When I saw Keller last month in West Virginia, he was a different pitcher. He was suddenly sitting 94-97 MPH, and had touched 99 MPH. He was absolutely dominating opposing hitters with his fastball, throwing it down in the zone, and having the ability to move it around and elevate it for strikeouts when needed. He was confident in the changeup enough to use the pitch throughout his starts, although it still needs work. The curveball, which has flashed plus potential in the past, was more consistent and looking like a plus pitch that he could throw for strikes and throw for strikeouts (again, still needs further improvement on consistency).

What I saw from him in West Virginia was enough for me to say that he looked better than Taillon and Glasnow looked at the same level. Taillon had no command of his elevated fastball and no changeup. Glasnow had a great fastball, but horrible control, and no changeup. Keller had a great fastball that was down, and that he commanded well, along with a good feel for the changeup. But I wasn’t ready to say he was the better overall prospect at that point, even if I was ready to bump him up to the top tier.

Keller then moved up to Bradenton at the end of the year where I got to see him two more times, and he showed that the new version of him was no fluke. He continued showing off the high velocity. He continued dominating with his fastball. More impressive was that he showed the ability to adjust in games to the new hitters. He showed the ability to pitch.

While he was in West Virginia, Keller was absolutely dominating hitters in the final month. There were a few starts where he threw nothing but fastballs in the first four innings. They knew what was coming, and they couldn’t do anything with it. He moved up to High-A, where the hitters could do a bit more with the fastball. So he started switching to the curveball for first pitch strikes when they started getting too aggressive, just to throw them off. He then went right back to dominating with the fastball, mixing in the curve and change when needed to keep them honest. That’s an advanced approach for a lower level guy, showing what a rare pitching prospect he is.

It was at that point that I started comparing him to Glasnow. I spent all year talking about how Glasnow needed to work on improving his changeup to add a third pitch that could counter his control when the first two pitches weren’t working. He rarely threw the pitch, which meant he was a two-pitch pitcher at best. When his curveball command was off, hitters could just sit on the fastball. And when the fastball command was really bad, he was in for a short outing (although his stuff is still good enough to escape damage from Triple-A hitters).

I hope Glasnow focuses on improving the changeup more in the future. I hope he finally gets comfortable repeating his mechanics and improves the control of his fastball. And there’s still plenty of time for that to happen. But the fact that he doesn’t show an interest in the third pitch makes him a riskier option. It’s one thing to dream about a changeup improving when a guy is working on the pitch. It almost seems foolish to dream about improvements when the pitcher doesn’t even want to throw the pitch. You start dreaming that he will just embrace the pitch, and that’s only the first step to actual improvement.

Glasnow still seems like a high upside guy. But I’m starting to think it’s more likely that he will end up a strong number three starter or a number two in a weaker rotation because of his inconsistent stuff. And yet that stuff will be good enough to make you dream about his upside as a top of the rotation guy if everything finally clicked and came together. I don’t think that dream will go away any time soon, even when he turns 25 or 27 and even if he’s still struggling as an inconsistent starter at those ages.

Meanwhile, Keller looks safe. He’s a guy who embraces the importance of improving the secondary stuff. He could have easily kept throwing the fastball as his only offering beyond the fourth inning in the final month in West Virginia. He would have kept getting outs. But he switched it up to work on the changeup and curveball a bit, and he still got the outs. He realizes that he can dominate the lower levels, and maybe even the higher levels, with his fastball/curveball combo, but he will need the changeup one day.

Furthermore, he’s already embracing the art of pitching. He could easily just blow it by opposing hitters. Instead, he moves the fastball all around the zone — high and low, inside and outside. He drops in first pitch curveballs for strikes when hitters are getting too aggressive. He even tries throwing changeups to right-handers, rather than just reserving the pitch for lefties, and thus giving right-handers three pitches to think about. This is really unfair for a guy in A-ball. He’s still got some things to work on at the new level in High-A, but his approach right now is why I expect him to spend the second half of the 2017 season in Altoona, and possibly arrive by 2018.

Pirates fans have gotten a chance this year to see what I’ve seen for years in Jameson Taillon — a pitcher with great stuff who is a student of the game, and very cerebral about his approach with his pitches, and with developing new pitches to complement the old ones. Keller is the same way. He doesn’t have the exact same makeup and mentality that Taillon has, but you could classify him as a student of the game who understands the ultimate goal — what he needs to do in the minors to eventually have success in the majors.

The most exciting thing about that? Keller is way ahead of where Taillon was at this level. Taillon started really working on the changeup in High-A and Double-A. His fastball was flat and elevated in the lower levels, so he had to bring back the two-seam fastball (which he’s now using as the primary fastball) in Altoona. Once he reached the upper levels and started seeing improvements with those pitches, he started learning how to pitch, by mixing them up and throwing hitters off-balance. Keller is already there, and he was starting that approach just three starts into his High-A career.

That is ultimately why Keller is the top prospect in my book. Typically, the further away you are from the majors, the more risk you have. I don’t see Keller with the same risk as a normal A-ball prospect, or even a normal top prospect from A-ball. If he was going in the 2017 draft, I think he’d be a strong contender for the number one overall pick, and a guy people would view as a future ace — much like Gerrit Cole’s draft ranking when he was drafted. Keller was a second rounder in 2014, and was a projectable prep pitcher at the time, but he’s now turning into what you want those projectable pitchers to become — a top of the rotation prospect.

I look at Glasnow and I see a guy with a lot of upside, but a lot of risk and a good chance that he will fall short of the upside if he continues the approach he took in 2016. I look at Keller and see a guy with a lot of upside, and not much risk involved. Because if he takes the same approach he took this year into the next two years, then this is a guy who could arrive by the middle of the 2018 season, and go on to be a top of the rotation starter in the majors. That’s why he’s my pick for the top prospect in the system.

**If this is the first time you’ve heard of Keller, or you hadn’t really heard of him prior to this year, then you’re definitely not a subscriber. We’ve been covering his progression live since he entered the system in 2014. Don’t miss out on all of our future reports on him, or other rising prospects in the system. Sign up for the site here.

**Mitch Keller is the Pirates Prospects 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Keller was our Pitcher of the Year this year. Glasnow won it twice in his minor league career. I’m guessing Keller will have a great shot to match that total next year. I’m also hoping that Glasnow doesn’t find himself in the minors long enough to go for number three.

**Instructs Report: Eric Wood Moves to the Outfield. Some notes from instructs today, looking at Eric Wood’s preparation for the AFL, and a review of a few of the 2016 prep pitchers.

**Chris Stewart Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery. Nothing really changes here, as his season was over. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

Related Articles

Latest Articles