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First Pitch: How Much is Ivan Nova Worth This Off-Season?

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Bill Brink of the Post-Gazette reported tonight that the Pirates have made two contract offers to Ivan Nova. Nova was acquired for Tito Polo and Stephen Tarpley at the trade deadline, and has put up some fantastic numbers with the Pirates, with a 2.93 ERA and a 3.09 xFIP in 55.1 innings of work, posting a 1.5 fWAR in the process.

Nova will hit free agency this off-season, and with his late surge, he should be one of the highlights of a weak free agent class. Brink said that Nova’s representatives gave a five-year, $70 M demand to the Pirates. There was no mention of how much the Pirates offered.

This is where the reminder comes in that this price is just Nova’s demand, and it’s unlikely to be what he will actually receive. That five-year, $70 M price tag is the exact same thing that Ian Kennedy got last year. It was also $10 M shy of what Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen received. Kennedy was coming off a bit of a down year, but averaged about a 2.5 fWAR over his previous five seasons. Leake averaged a 1.8 fWAR over his previous five seasons. Chen only had four seasons, but averaged a 2.3 fWAR during that time.

Nova is having a big second half, but it seems unlikely that he’s going to be able to parlay that into the same type of contract, even with a weaker market. The one argument in his favor is that he averaged a 2.1 fWAR from 2011-13, before going down early with Tommy John in 2014. That also caused him to miss half of the 2015 season, and struggle in his return. If you make the argument that he’s now back to where he was before the injury, then he’d be worth the bigger price. But that doesn’t tend to be the way these things work.

The going rate for reclamation projects like Nova has been in the three-year, $40 M range. Last year, J.A. Happ signed for 3/$36 M. Scott Kazmir signed for 3/$48 M. The year before that, Francisco Liriano signed for 3/$39 M, while Brandon McCarthy signed for 4/$48 M.

Most of those guys were coming off good seasons, but had question marks in their careers, and were a few years removed from their best numbers. Of course, with the exception of Happ (so far), most of those guys have since shown why they were considered higher risk and why they in turn received lower contracts. That’s something to consider with Nova, not just wondering if he will stay healthy, but if the current results will stick around.

I could see Nova getting higher than Happ and Liriano on a three-year deal, due to the market. But I don’t see the market propelling him to the Kennedy/Chen/Leake range, as I think the pitcher puts himself in that range, and not the lack of other available options around him.

Of course, it makes sense for Nova to be asking for the Ian Kennedy price right now. He’s got two starts remaining until he’s a free agent, unless the Pirates can pull off something extremely impressive these final ten days. There’s no reason for him to come down on his asking price when he’s so close to free agency, and before he’s talked with other teams.

It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out in the off-season. The Pirates definitely need another starter for their 2017 rotation, and someone who is more established than the young prospects they’ve got for their other spots. Nova makes a lot of sense, and seems to fit in well in Pittsburgh. But unless he comes down in price when it doesn’t make sense for him to come down in price, I doubt we’ll see any action until the off-season.

WBC Qualifier Update

By John Dreker

On Thursday night in World Baseball Qualifier action, Israel defeated Great Britain by a 5-2 score. This match-up featured both Pirates in the tournament, though only one played. Kyle Simmons, who spent the last two seasons in the Dominican Summer League, started at third base for Great Britain and batted ninth. Jared Lakind was in the bullpen for Israel and started warming up in the ninth, but was never called on.

Simmons batted three times and struck out twice, though his first strikeout was him caught looking on two strikes well off the outside corner of the plate. That was happening all game for both teams, so it wasn’t just his at-bat. In his first at-bat, Simmons faced Major League veteran Jason Marquis. On the first pitch, the right-handed swinging Simmons sent a sharp grounder right at the first baseman for the easy out.

In the field, Simmons looked surprisingly good. I say surprisingly because he hasn’t played third base as a pro, mostly playing second base, while occasionally playing shortstop, which is his natural position. He almost made an outstanding play when he charged in on a high hopper, catching the ball bare handed after the last hop had some spin on it and bounced away from him. He made the throw and it reached the first baseman in the air, but it was a low throw and the first baseman couldn’t handle it. Simmons handled five other chances, which were mostly easy plays, showing off a nice arm.

Israel plays Brazil on Friday at noon and you can probably expect Lakind to make an appearance out of the bullpen. Great Britain plays the 7:00 PM game against Pakistan. The rest of the weekend schedule will be determined by the results of these games.

Daily Links

**The Pirates Have Fought Their Way Back to Slim Playoff Odds. A look at the slim chance the Pirates have of making the playoffs, and how they’ve turned their toughest stretch in the final two months into a must-win situation.

**Injury Updates on Starling Marte and Jordy Mercer. Two injuries tonight, with Marte’s possibly being more serious in terms of future games missed.

**Pirates Acquire Phil Coke For Cash Considerations. He will join the team on Friday, and a corresponding move will be made to add him to the 40-man roster.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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