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First Pitch: The Big Investment in Josh Bell is Paying Off For the Pirates

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Going forward, I think we’re going to have to start naming the Pirates Prospects Player of the Year Award the “Josh Bell Award”. When I was asking around for the votes for the year-end awards, it didn’t even occur to me that Bell had won the previous two years. It should have occurred to me, as he was on the cover of the 2015 Prospect Guide, and if we kept going with either the pitcher or hitter of the year on the cover, he’d be entering his third year of cover eligibility. He’s now the Player of the Year for the third year in a row.

Bell isn’t the best prospect in the system. We ranked him third in the system in our mid-season top 50 update, and it’s possible that he would have fallen behind Jameson Taillon if we rated the pitcher at the time. But he’s definitely in that top tier, and the progression he’s made throughout his minor league career has lived up to the hype.

I can’t think of a prospect who came in with more hype than Bell, or at least a prospect outside of the first round. Sure, Gerrit Cole was a first overall pick, and Jameson Taillon was the first legit top of the rotation prospect in years, and Pedro Alvarez was the future of the franchise. But the Pirates broke the draft with Bell. They took him in the second round of the 2011 draft, after every other team passed over him — some of them multiple times — due to a letter he sent around to all teams saying he was going to college. The Pirates drafted him anyway, gave him a $5 M bonus that shattered the record for the highest bonus outside of the first round, and signed him. Shortly after that, MLB changed their draft rules to avoid this out of control spending, fearing these huge amounts could be a danger to the game in the future.

So far, Bell has lived up to the investment.

He had a brief hiccup to start his career, going to West Virginia in 2012, but quickly going down after 66 plate appearances with a knee injury. He returned to the same level in 2013, and started showing his potential, with an .806 OPS and 13 homers.

He went to Bradenton the following year, hitting for a .335/.384/.502 line in half a season, before jumping up to Altoona and slumping a bit by the end of the year in 2014. That slump didn’t carry over to the 2015 season, as he hit for an .803 OPS in his time with Altoona, moving up to Indianapolis by the end of the year and hitting for a .946 OPS.

That was the first sign that he was starting to break out in the power department. He had a .174 ISO in West Virginia, and .166 in Bradenton. That dropped to .120 in Altoona, trending in the wrong direction. He jumped back up to .157 last year in Triple-A. This year, he hit for an .850 OPS in Indianapolis, with a .173 ISO, putting up some of his best numbers of his career at the highest minor league level.

He didn’t stop there. So far, the transition to the majors has been seamless for Bell. He has a .311/.413/.467 line in 109 plate appearances. He has struck out 9.2% of the time and has walked 15.6% of the time. He has an ISO of .156. Out of players with 100+ plate appearances, the walk rate puts him 2nd on the team behind Matt Joyce, and the strikeout rate is the lowest on the team. His OBP ranks first in that group, and his wOBA and wRC+ each rank second. The one area he trails is ISO, ranking 6th in that group.

It’s a small sample size, but all of these live up to the lofty scouting reports. Even when he wasn’t hitting for power, Bell had the ability to hit for average and get on base. When hitting was a concern from the right side, there still weren’t any concerns about his ability to hit for average and get on base. Scouts have said that Bell has the best hands in the minors. I’ve had some scouts tell me that Bell is the best pure hitting prospect in the minors, and some even say he’s the best offensive prospect.

Things change, of course, when you factor in the defensive value. That has been the biggest struggle for Bell so far, and the one thing that held him back from the majors for part of this season. It also prevents him from being the top prospect in the system. It will detract from the offensive value somewhat, but Bell’s offensive upside will still make him an above-average to All-Star player, especially if the power keeps improving.

For now, he has graduated to the majors, although the prospect status might not officially be lost until the start of next season. That means someone else in the system will get a chance to win this award next year. It also means the Pirates will be looking forward to seeing Bell’s offense in the lineup for the next six years, showing the result of what made him such a great prospect every step of the way.

**Josh Bell is the Pirates Prospects 2016 Minor League Player of the Year. Here’s a recap of Bell’s season, along with the awards for each level, and the history of the award.

**Sean Rodriguez Named National League Co-Player of the Week. He’s capping off a great season, and his hitting has been going on for a little over a year now. Since August 1st of last year, he has a .280/.356/.515 line with 18 homers in 376 plate appearances.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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