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First Pitch: The Future Still Looks Bright For the Pirates

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It has been a few years since the Pirates were expected to miss the playoffs. While I’m not counting out another surge by the 2016 team to get close to the Wild Card game, I will say that the chances of them bouncing back and making the post-season seem pretty slim. So for the first time in four seasons, I expect the Pirates will miss the post-season.

There is one thing I forgot about when the Pirates are losing, and it might be worse than the losing. It’s the hyperbole surrounding the losing.

Back in 2012, the Pirates collapsed in the second half, and had their 20th losing season in a row. It was horrible, and it would have been bad enough just focusing on everything the team did wrong that year, especially in the second half. But the complaints about the season took it a step further: The Pirates were horrible and there was no help on the way.

The minor league system at the time definitely had help on the way. Starling Marte had just arrived that season. Gerrit Cole was set to arrive the following year. They had Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco breaking out, Tyler Glasnow showing the first signs of his potential, and then some. They also had young players who were making the jump to the majors, like Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, and Justin Wilson (later traded for Francisco Cervelli).

For some reason, it wasn’t enough at the time to say that the Pirates had a horrible season at the Major League level. It had to go one step further, to the point where there was no hope for the future either, despite the fact that the Pirates were nationally considered a top farm system at the time. Of course most of the people making these claims didn’t really follow the system, and there was no excuse, since this site was free at the time.

Fast forward to the 2016 season, and we’re starting to see the same thing. The Pirates might miss the post-season for the first time in the last four seasons. This isn’t good, but it’s hardly a massive failure, since not many teams make it to the playoffs every year. But I’ve already noticed some hyperbole attached to this year’s results. Just like in 2012, it has to do with the future, where the window is closing, and the Pirates are heading for a serious downturn.

In fairness, Pirates fans saw their last playoff stretch turn into 20 years of losing. And MLB is set up so that small market teams have to work extremely hard to contend year after year. But there should be no concern about this team’s ability to contend beyond 2016.

First of all, most of this team will be together through the 2018 season. A lot of the key players are young and will be in their prime for the next two or three years, and beyond. Let’s take a look at the key positions.

C – Francisco Cervelli is signed through 2019, with Elias Diaz in Triple-A.

1B – Josh Bell is under team control through 2022.

2B – Josh Harrison is under team control through 2020, and the Pirates have guys like Adam Frazier, Alen Hanson, and a few guys below Triple-A who can possibly take over in the future.

SS – Jordy Mercer is under team control through 2018, and Kevin Newman could be ready by next summer. If Newman takes over this job, that adds Cole Tucker to the future at second base.

3B – Jung Ho Kang and David Freese are both under team control through the 2019 season. The Pirates will likely have Will Craig in Bradenton and Ke’Bryan Hayes in West Virginia to start the 2017 season, with both having a good shot to move up mid-season.

LF – Starling Marte is under team control through 2021.

CF – Andrew McCutchen is under team control through 2018. Austin Meadows could arrive by the middle of next season.

RF – Gregory Polanco is under team control through 2023.

That’s a pretty good lineup. Most of these guys are young players, which means the majority should be expected to get better. Obviously things happen, as we’ve seen with Andrew McCutchen this year. But even with those struggles, the Pirates are tied for fourth in the NL in wRC+, and they’re 8th in wOBA (but .003 points away from 5th). So even with expected injuries and down years, the Pirates should have enough for a strong lineup for the next few years. And if Austin Meadows and Kevin Newman work out as expected, this could be a strong lineup for the next five or six years.

Now let’s look at the rotation.

SP – Gerrit Cole is under team control through 2019.

SP – Jameson Taillon is under team control through 2022.

SP – Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Brault are also under team control through 2022, assuming they stay up full-time going forward. Obviously if they go back down, it could extend the future year.

SP – Drew Hutchison is under team control through 2019.

This doesn’t include pitchers like Nick Kingham, Trevor Williams, Clay Holmes, Brandon Waddell, or Tyler Eppler. Outside of Kingham, I’d say most of the rest of that group would be depth next year. Then there’s the long-term guys in the lower levels, like Mitch Keller, Gage Hinsz, Taylor Hearn, Luis Escobar, and Yeudy Garcia, to name a few.

You can never have too much pitching depth, and that’s why I’d suggest the Pirates add at least one starter this off-season, even if they have plenty of young pitchers making their way through the system. But they do have a good base of young talent, with the chance to have 2-3 home-grown top of the rotation starters on the same team for the next 3-6 years, assuming Keller lives up to his potential and takes over for Cole. And once again, just like the offense, this is a young group, with most of them having their best years ahead of them.

The 2016 season has been a down year. The Pirates have been actual contenders, but like some contenders every year, they will probably find themselves on the outside of the playoff scene. But this wouldn’t be the end for them. With the way this team is built, with so many prospects arriving this year, so many young players currently on the team, and so many more on the way, they’re only just getting started.

**Ivan Nova’s Complete Game, Early Offensive Spark Get Pirates Back to .500. Alan Saunders looks at Ivan Nova’s gem, and how the offense has been heating up to help him out tonight.

**Prospect Watch: Clay Holmes and Altoona Even Up Series with 3-1 Win. Sean McCool has a live report on Altoona’s win tonight. Follow along this weekend as Sean and I have live playoff coverage from Altoona and Bradenton.

**Pirates Notes: Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon to Have Next Starts Skipped. Alan Saunders details what the Pirates will be doing with their young starters over the next week.

**Tyler Glasnow Named MLB Pipeline Pitcher of the Year. Good recognition for Glasnow, who did have an amazing season from a numbers standpoint in Triple-A.

**Prospect Notes: Connor Joe Showing the Offense That Made Him a First Rounder. My notes from Bradenton, with a look at how Connor Joe has been putting up good numbers this year.

**David Todd Podcast: Discussing Tyler Glasnow, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, and More. My weekly interview with David Todd.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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