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Mitch Keller is the Pirates Prospects 2016 Breakout Prospect of the Year

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This is the sixth year that we’ve announced our Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year. During all that time, we tracked breakout prospects throughout the system, even getting into the habit of highlighting players who could be breakout guys in the future. But it wasn’t until last year that we started naming an official Breakout Prospect of the Year. Yeudy Garcia won the award last time around, also taking the breakout pitcher award, while Max Moroff was our breakout position player of the year.

This year, the overall winner is once again a pitcher, and I don’t think it’s going to be a surprise that the pitcher is Mitch Keller.

The term “breakout” doesn’t have a specific meaning. It could cover a player going from non-prospect status to a guy who could now be seen as a future MLB player. It could be a lower ranked prospect who now becomes a top 20 or 30 prospect. Last year, Garcia was a mix of both, going from a complete unknown to a guy ranking in our top 20. Keller is a different case. He has ranked in our top 20 since he was drafted, even jumping into the top 10 after his first year.

The reason Keller was rated so high was due to his potential, and most of that potential involved envisioning him adding velocity, improving his pitches, and adding a changeup. But he was still very raw this time last year. He had good velocity, but poor control. He learned a new changeup grip, but needed to work on getting comfortable with the pitch. And there were some injury concerns after he missed part of the 2015 season with forearm tightness, with the Pirates mostly being cautious.

One year later, Keller has improved the control with a mechanical adjustment, and has even improved the velocity. He’s gotten comfortable with the changeup. The injury concerns seemed more and more like the Pirates being overly protective of him, as he was fine all year this year, and was strong at the end of a long season with almost triple the amount of pro innings he had coming into the season.

Most breakout players go from being non-prospects, to being in Keller’s range coming into the year. Keller’s breakout took him from that range to challenging for the top spot in the system, and probably establishing himself as a top 50 prospect in the game next year, and possibly much higher.

Breakout Position Player

Keller is the breakout prospect of the year, and is also the breakout pitcher. There were a few smaller breakouts on the position player side, but the biggest one came from third baseman Eric Wood in Altoona. Wood returned to Double-A for his second year in a row, but only in his age 23 season, and improved his numbers across the board, making him our Breakout Position Player of the Year.

Since he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, scouts have been high on Wood, specifically liking his power potential. He hasn’t shown much of that in his pro career so far, but that changed this year when he hit for a .194 ISO, up from .069 last year in Altoona. He also hit 16 homers this year, after combining for 15 in his first four years in pro ball.

A lot of guys who hit for power also have strikeout issues. Wood actually went the other way. While his power went way up, his strikeouts dropped. He went from a 23.6% strikeout rate last year to a 19% strikeout rate this year. That was the second lowest total of his career, outside of the 17.6% rate he had in the GCL in 2012.

The walks also improved for Wood. He always had a decent walk rate, but saw that tick up from 8.6% to 11.2%, which is a career high, passing the 9.9% he had in the GCL.

The improvements didn’t just come on the offensive side of the game. Wood improved his defense at third base, going from a guy who previously looked like he would never be able to stick at the position, to a guy who might be able to not only stick, but provide some defensive value. He will be playing outfield in the Arizona Fall League this off-season, but that seems more about getting Connor Joe some extra work at third base.

The one downside to his game is that his average still isn’t very high. He had a .278 BABIP this year, and has been in the .312-.343 range in the past. That could tick up, especially since he has a good approach at the plate. But his average was .249, so I don’t know if we’re talking about a future .300 hitter here.

Overall, you’ve got a guy who saw a huge increase in power, a decrease in strikeouts, an increase in an already good walk rate, and a big improvement on defense at a premium position. I’m not sure what he could become as a future MLB player, but a year ago it seemed like a long-shot to see him making the majors as anything more than a cup of coffee guy. It’s not that hard to imagine him making the majors now in some role bigger than a cup of coffee player, after all the improvements he made in 2016.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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