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The Pirates Have Fought Their Way Back to Slim Playoff Odds

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This has been a roller coaster season for the Pirates. And I literally mean a roller coaster when talking about their playoff chances going up and down.

Last night, the Pirates won their sixth game in their last seven contests, and their sixth in a row on the road in Milwaukee. Remember when they used to never win in Milwaukee (way back at the end of July)?

The set of wins pulled them from a game below .500 to a game above .500. They also find themselves 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race, and that’s with the Cardinals, Mets, and Giants all tied for the two spots. That means they are 3.5 games back from potentially hosting another Wild Card game, as crazy as that sounds.

The Pirates have been in this situation before several times in the last month. Here is a recap of their stretches:

**Lost 5 of 6 around the trade deadline to Milwaukee and Atlanta.

**Went 9-3, including taking 5 of 6 on the road against the Dodgers and Giants (sweep).

**Lost 5 of 6 to the Marlins (sweep) and Astros.

**Swept the Brewers in 4 games in Milwaukee.

**Lost 8 games in a row, getting swept by the Cubs, Brewers at home, and losing two against the Cardinals.

**Won 2 games, then lost 4 straight, including three to the Reds and one to the Phillies.

**Won 7 of the last 9 against the Phillies, Reds, and Brewers.

There is no consistency here. They’re not just beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones. They’re not just dropping the ball against teams they should beat. They’re doing all of those things. They sweep a bad team like the Brewers on the road, which is something you should expect from a contender, and then get swept by that team a week later at home, which is something a contender shouldn’t do. They beat up on two playoff teams on the road in the Dodgers and Giants, but then get crushed for five of six games against the Cubs and Cardinals.

It would be so much easier to explain if they were consistent here. If they were beating up on the bad teams and losing to the good teams, you could say that they aren’t really a good team, and just take advantage of a weak schedule. You might be able to make an argument about their ability to show up if it were the opposite situation. But when there’s no consistency, then you just chalk it up to a team that hits random highs and lows.

They’re on another high right now, and that has brought them to 3.5 games back, after being 6.0 games back at the start of this latest stretch. Even though they are this close, the odds are still slim. Here is a look at the updated odds.

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If you look at the schedule, there’s a reason for this slim chance. The Pirates have one more game against the Brewers on the road. They return home for a tough schedule, playing the Nationals for three games and the Cubs in four. They are at home, but that’s two division leaders they’ll go up against. Then they’ve got three games to end the year against the Cardinals on the road, which is a good matchup if the Cardinals are in the Wild Card and the Pirates are within three games. Except that doesn’t guarantee them a shot, since there are still two other teams to consider.

The Pirates’ chances basically boil down to the other teams in the race continuing to struggle. They don’t need all of those teams to struggle, but they need one of the Mets and Giants to struggle, and they need to stay within three of the Cardinals. The bigger challenge would be finishing the year on a strong note against a difficult schedule. It’s not like they haven’t beaten good teams before in the last two months. But if they did it this time, after already riding a 7-2 stretch, it would mark their longest stretch of winning in those previous two months, and maybe all year.

Put it this way: When the Pirates most likely miss the playoffs, we’re going to look back at all of those bad stretches and say “If they would have avoided just one of those slumps, they would have made the playoffs.” Well, the Pirates still have a chance to avoid the one slump that could keep them out of the playoffs. It’s just that now they have no guarantee that a good stretch will lead to the post-season, as they need other teams losing to help them out. And the worst part is, they’ve saved the toughest part of their second half schedule for a must-win situation.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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