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Pirates Have Off-Season Money to Spend in the Initial 2017 Payroll Projection

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Today I finished putting together the 2017 40-man payroll page, which will be updated throughout the off-season, and into the regular season. Bookmark that link, as I’ll be updating the chart after every move throughout the off-season. The chart provides an estimate  of the year-end 2017 payroll, which will definitely change throughout the off-season.

Right now the estimate is made up of three things. First we have the guaranteed salaries. Next are the projected arbitration increases. Finally there are the projected roster decisions. I didn’t include projected free agents, since that’s unpredictable. I mostly stuck with players who were out of options, or who didn’t play a huge role at the end of the season. There are some players who I have projected on the active roster who may end up off the 40-man roster at some point this off-season, but they were league minimum guys, so it didn’t make much of a difference. The non-tender focus was mostly on arbitration eligible guys, since that had a bigger impact on payroll.

I projected a 25-man roster when making this payroll chart, although a few spots will change. For example, right now Steven Brault is projected to be in the rotation, and I fully expect the Pirates to add at least one starter this off-season, pushing Brault to Triple-A. That will change the payroll, with Brault’s inclusion as a league minimum guy making this a minimum projection until roster spots are added.

One key disclaimer here is that I don’t know what the Pirates are receiving from the Mets for Antonio Bastardo. I’ve got that figure listed as a question mark, and it will drive the payroll down a bit.

The Pirates are currently projected for a $86,455,166 payroll in 2017. A lot can change with that figure. As an example, last year they had a projected $104,727,333 payroll when I first made the chart around this time of year. The end of year payroll estimate was $98,477,344, with the drop due to a reduction in salary at the trade deadline with the Mark Melancon and Francisco Liriano trades. Last year’s pre-season projection didn’t include the $3.5 M they were getting for Michael Morse, and included Pedro Alvarez (projected for $8.1 M at the time), Neil Walker ($10.7 M), and Charlie Morton ($8 M guaranteed). The Pirates cut salaries last year in order to spend, and they didn’t spend much.

This time around, they have some spending room, even without cutting salaries, mostly because that was done with the Liriano trade. They also don’t have many needs, with the biggest ones being a starting pitcher and a late inning reliever. Here is a look at the key contract situations heading into the off-season.

The Rotation

Right now, the biggest area where the Pirates need to add would be the rotation. If they added someone making around $13 M a year, that would put their 2017 payroll projection just below $100 M with no other additions or cuts (again, not including Bastardo’s payment from the Mets). That’s a range they’ve been in the last few years at the start of the season, and they can definitely get there again, as that was kind of a big reason they made the Liriano trade. I’ve got the rest of the rotation as Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, and Drew Hutchison. You could make the argument that they should go for a second starter and build depth, maybe adding a lower cost reclamation guy with a high upside who can battle with Hutchison during Spring Training.

Andrew McCutchen

I’ve written that I think the Pirates should trade McCutchen this off-season in order to address their starting pitching needs. If they made that deal, they’d also be freeing up $14 M in salary this year, which could allow them to add a second higher priced starter to the rotation, rather than just going for a low cost reclamation guy. Or, it could allow them to go with a reclamation guy, while upgrading several other positions, like bringing back Sean Rodriguez for the bench, adding a quality late inning reliever to pair with Juan Nicasio and Felipe Rivero, and so on.

The Bullpen

The bullpen doesn’t look as strong as it did in previous years, due to the trade of Mark Melancon, the down year from Tony Watson, and Neftali Feliz leaving as a free agent after struggling with injuries at the end of the year. They currently have Watson as the closer, Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio as late inning guys, and I’ve got Antonio Bastardo, Wade LeBlanc, and A.J. Schugel projected in the other spots. I don’t have a full bullpen projected, but have an extra bench player due to Jason Rogers being out of options. That will eventually change, but again, the league minimum salary here doesn’t matter from a payroll perspective.

I could see the Pirates trying to flip Bastardo after he rebounded a bit with them at the end of the year. Or, depending on how much they’re getting for him from the Mets, they could keep him as a cheap second lefty. I could also see LeBlanc sticking around, as he’ll be low cost and had good results in his brief time with the Pirates. The final bullpen spot will likely come from the outside, and if they add a good late inning guy, they could have a promising group, with Watson, Rivero, and Nicasio already providing a lot of velocity and upside in the late innings.

In-Season Additions

The difference between the Opening Day payroll and the final payroll is usually big. There’s no way to project all of the in-season moves, whether that comes in the form of trades, waiver claims, or the constant promotions and demotions from Triple-A. In previous years when the Pirates were stronger contenders, the in-season figure has been anywhere from a $6-11 M increase. They dropped $6 M this past year, due to the trades at the deadline. The estimated number represents the Opening Day projections. If you estimate that they’re contenders again, you could probably add $5-10 M to that figure on Opening Day to guess what the final figure would be.

Accuracy

The estimated payroll is exactly that, an estimate. It doesn’t include every bonus, incentive, or exact salary figures for the league minimum guys. In the past, the estimate has been pretty accurate. The estimate in previous years has had a margin of error of $1.36 M on average.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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