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Should the Pirates Trade Andrew McCutchen This Off-Season?

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It’s funny how much things can change in baseball in just one year. A year ago, if you wrote about trading Andrew McCutchen in the future, rather than signing him to an extension and making him a Pirate for life, the article didn’t go over well. There were questions about whether Austin Meadows would add power and become a future impact hitter to replace McCutchen. There were questions of loyalty, and about whether the Pirates owed it to fans and to McCutchen to keep him around for the rest of his career.

That’s the sad part of this whole situation. That loyalty apparently didn’t extend both ways, as Pirates fans spent most of the 2016 season booing McCutchen and complaining about him after one bad season, which followed five straight 5+ WAR seasons. It was a bad year, and disappointment is justified, but when Pirates fans are booing the best player to come through Pittsburgh in the last two decades, then the “loyalty” argument goes right out the window.

A year ago, if I mentioned the idea of trading McCutchen before his contract expired, it would be met with backlash. Now, after McCutchen struggled and Austin Meadows broke out and reached Triple-A, I have a feeling the idea won’t be so controversial, even if I suggest trading him this off-season.

And I think it would be a good idea to trade him this off-season.

I don’t think the Pirates should trade Andrew McCutchen because I think he’s done. It’s not in reaction to this year. I do think that he will see a downturn in production in the future, although not to the extreme we saw this year. My reasoning for this is the same as it was last year at this time — speed continues to be less of a factor in his game, and injuries could be a bigger factor as he gets older. The knee injury led to struggles early in 2015, and I think the thumb played a big role in his struggles the first four months of 2016. I don’t think the injuries will lead to a season like this one every year (he had a 5.8 fWAR last year, even with the knee injury). I also don’t think there’s a huge concern with his final two contract years. But it seems like a foolish idea to extend him beyond those years and pay $20+ M per year to get him for his age 31+ seasons.

The reason I think it would be wise to trade McCutchen this off-season is because I think the Pirates are set up well right now to make that move. They’ve got plenty of offense on the team, finishing sixth in the NL in wOBA (.318) and 3rd in wRC+ (99). That’s with McCutchen struggling for most of the season, Jung Ho Kang struggling for part of the year, and some other inconsistent performances at times. Not to mention, only about two months of Josh Bell on the team.

At the moment, the Pirates are set up with Bell at first base, and David Freese and John Jaso on the bench. Freese had a good overall year, with a .270/.352/.412 line in 492 plate appearances, although he struggled down the stretch. Meanwhile, Jaso had a bad year as a starter, but picked up his production down the stretch with a .307/413/.568 line in 104 plate appearances over the final two months. Both of them provide a big upgrade defensively at first base over Bell.

What I think the Pirates should do is trade McCutchen, move Bell to right field, and play Freese and Jaso at first base. Not an exact platoon, where Jaso gets most of the time, but an informal platoon where the hot hitter gets the majority of the work. You might even be able to do a situation like the end of this season, where Bell even rotates into the first base mix, with a utility player getting some starts in the outfield. You wouldn’t exactly have a regular starting right fielder or first baseman, but you’d have several players who could fill those roles each night, with Bell definitely getting regular starting time.

By the middle of the 2017 season, you might have Austin Meadows to throw into this mix, making the group even stronger, or providing a contingency if both Freese and Jaso struggle (which would require Freese to continue his final two months, and Jaso to revert back to his first four months, and I think there’s an interesting discussion in here for another article). It could also lead to Meadows being a full time starter in the outfield, Bell being the full-time starter at first base (with the hope that the defense improves), and a stronger bench with Freese and Jaso providing depth, assuming they’re both performing.

Here’s why I don’t think this would be a big hit to the position players. First of all, the biggest issue with the non-McCutchen group is Bell’s defense. Even if you move him to the outfield, the defense is going to be poor. But whether McCutchen is here or not, the Pirates will be starting Bell somewhere. So his bad defense is a wash, regardless of who is on the team.

By trading McCutchen, you move Freese/Jaso into the lineup. They won’t provide the same offense as McCutchen, but they will provide a defensive upgrade to help off-set the difference. You’re going from two really bad defensive options to one. There would still be a net loss, but I think the Pirates have enough offense to take a hit in exchange for defense and other value (getting to that in a minute). I also think Meadows could eventually further negate this loss in offense, not to mention Bell’s potential improvements next year.

The biggest factor with the makeup of the team is that they’re weak on pitching. Trading McCutchen could go a long way toward adding the pitching needed to help boost this team. I’m not talking about a Neil Walker for Jon Niese type deal. McCutchen has far more value than Walker did, even coming off a down year.

McCutchen was only worth an 0.9 fWAR this year, but hasn’t been below 5.5 in his previous five years. If you take the last five seasons, and remove the outliers (2013 with an 8.4 fWAR, and this season), then you get an average of a 6.2 WAR. If you include this season and 2013, the average is about 5.7, which is the low-end of McCutchen’s normal production.

At a 5.7 WAR each year, and with McCutchen’s remaining salary ($14 M in 2017, $14.5 M option in 2018), he would be worth $51.7 M in trade value right now. That would go up another $7 M total if you went with 6.2 WAR as the figure. Either way, he has a lot of trade value. If you want a top pitching prospect, there’s no one who is off-limits in terms of value. That doesn’t mean you can just call up the Nationals and they’ll just hand over Lucas Giolito and another top prospect. The deal has to make sense from the other side. The point is that McCutchen has a lot of value.

He also has plenty of value to demand an MLB starter in return, although it might have to be a deal where it’s McCutchen and a top prospect for the starter and a lower ranked prospect. As a hypothetical example, the White Sox have been listening on Chris Sale, who is under team control for three more seasons, and has a trade value of $82.3 M. That’s obviously higher than McCutchen’s value above, and the Pirates would have to use prospects to even out a deal like this (in this case, it would essentially be trading prospects for Sale’s final year, since McCutchen and Sale match up closely the first two seasons).

Alternatively, if you went for a lesser starter (I wouldn’t suggest anything less than a strong number three guy), it might just be McCutchen straight up for that pitcher, and possibly a prospect or two. They could also trade McCutchen for a package of top prospects, then trade a package of top prospects for a starting pitching upgrade. Either way, you’d be trading away a strength of the team (offensive downgrade of losing McCutchen) and getting an upgrade at pitching and on defense. I think the upgrade would help offset the loss in offense.

I think it would make sense to trade McCutchen this off-season, but only if it helps upgrade the pitching staff. By the middle of this season, McCutchen’s eventual replacement could be ready for the majors, and the Pirates are in a good situation with Bell, Freese, and Jaso until then, not to mention other bench players like Adam Frazier and maybe Sean Rodriguez if he returned (which I think would be a good idea in this scenario).

If they didn’t make the trade this off-season, then I definitely think a trade would be warranted next off-season, when Meadows should be ready for the majors. But they have a strength on offense, and a clear need for an upgrade in pitching this off-season. Dealing McCutchen could help fill that weakness, and you’d only be making the trade half a season before it’s necessary, while having a lot of good pieces in place to the point where you won’t feel the impact of McCutchen’s loss during that half season.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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