There were two rumors that came out this evening about Andrew McCutchen. The first was that the Pirates shopped him at the deadline to the Nationals, with top outfield prospect Victor Robles (who is 19 years old in A-ball, the number 13 prospect in Baseball America’s mid-season top 100, and basically sounds like he could be a future McCutchen or better) in the mix. There was also news that the Pirates are considering McCutchen in right field next year, with Starling Marte in center field and Gregory Polanco in left field.
My quick reaction is that whether it comes by a trade or a position change, Andrew McCutchen should be moved in some form next year.
The position change is the easiest to discuss, mostly because I’ve already discussed it this off-season, along with pretty much every off-season and even during the season in every year since Starling Marte arrived in the majors. The most recent discussion is here, and points out how McCutchen was the worst center fielder in baseball.
The Pirates blamed this on his shallow positioning, according to Ken Rosenthal, and Rosenthal points out that Dexter Fowler had the same situation and improved when the Cubs moved him deeper. I think you can make an argument that the horrible range from McCutchen isn’t a predictor of what is to come, and is partially impacted by his positioning. At the same time, he’s lost speed in other metrics over the years, and he wasn’t a good center fielder even with his normal range. I think it has declined some, and the fact they’re considering him for right field and not left field indicates they’re more concerned about his range hurting them in left than his arm hurting them in right.
Moving Marte to center field and moving McCutchen to an easier position is the right move, although McCutchen still isn’t going to be a good defender. He’s just not going to hurt the Pirates as much as he would in center field.
That brings up the trade topic. It’s a difficult topic to discuss if you leave the business side out of it. Personally, Andrew McCutchen is one of my favorite players to watch in the game. When he’s not having a year like his 2016 season, he’s dynamic. He’s a game changer. And he’s the type of guy who makes it easy to root for him, while also hoping he retires as a Pirate.
But the reality is that it makes so much baseball sense to eventually trade McCutchen. The Pirates already have his replacement in Austin Meadows, although Meadows won’t be ready right away, so they might have to get by with Josh Bell and Adam Frazier getting reps for a few months. That wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. And this all makes sense if the Pirates can use McCutchen to get pitching help in some way. Maybe that’s trading him for prospects and then using those prospects to trade for a top of the rotation arm. Maybe they get a young pitcher back in the trade. Or maybe they use the money saved from his salary to add additional pitching this off-season, while possibly also doing one of the above things to provide a boost to the staff.
The Pirates don’t have a ton of needs this off-season, and they should be contenders once again, even before any upgrades. The early ZiPS projections had them with 86 wins, and the fourth best chance of making the playoffs, going up against the Giants in the Wild Card game. That’s the team right now, with no further additions, and there will be additions.
Trading McCutchen would be a subtraction, but I think they’ve got enough offensive options to help counter his loss, and they’d add by subtraction with the defense. If they could greatly upgrade the pitching staff by moving him, then they could see a scenario where the team loses it’s best player, but actually upgrades in the aggregate by being able to upgrade several positions with the money saved and the talent brought back from a McCutchen deal.
The one possible setback to a McCutchen trade right now is the year he had. He did bounce back at the plate in August and September, but might not be at his full value right now. The Pirates could wait and trade him next off-season, hoping he rebounds. They will get less in return for one less year, and risk him having another down year and losing some value. Although a quick trade value comparison shows he’ll have more value this year. If he’s only projected for a 4.5 WAR for the next two years, he’d be worth about $35 M in trade value. He’d have to be worth 7 WAR in his final year to be worth the same amount on a one year deal. And if you’re wondering, a prospect like Robles is worth around $33 M in value, although McCutchen might get a further boost because there aren’t many players with his upside who are available.
It would definitely suck to see McCutchen traded away, but you could easily make the argument that this is the best baseball move for the Pirates in the short- and long-term. And if he isn’t traded, then he absolutely needs to be moved off center field in favor of the best outfield defender on the team, Starling Marte.
**Pirates Could Move Andrew McCutchen After Discussing a Possible Deal this Summer. The rumors on McCutchen are linked here.
**AFL: Jin-De Jhang Drives in a Pair; Edgar Santana Continues Shutout Streak. I’ve got an Edgar Santana article coming up tomorrow, along with an article on Jhang soon.
**Pirates Minor League Free Agents and Why Brandon Cumpton Isn’t Eligible. I looked at the free agent list, and noted why Cumpton is still with the Pirates.
**Starling Marte Wins Second Straight Gold Glove Award. Hopefully he wins one in center field next year.
**Phillies Hire Long-Time Pirates Scout Greg Schilz. The Pirates lost one of their crosscheckers and a long time scout to the Phillies.
