Today, MLBTR released their top 50 free agents and predictions for the 2016-17 off-season. The predictions themselves are pretty useless and mostly just for fun, as history shows that those predictions from any outlet are mostly just educated guesses. For example, the Pirates are linked to Andrew Cashner here. They could go for Cashner, as he seems like the classic example of a reclamation project. But the safe bet here is that pitching will be the target, whether it’s someone more established, or a reclamation guy like Cashner.
One thing that really stood out was the cost of pitching, both starting and relieving. The highest projected contracts for pitchers are Aroldis Chapman (5 years/$90 M) and Kenley Jansen (5/$85 M). The highest projected starter contract is Jeremy Hellickson at four years and $60 M.
Of relevance to the Pirates, Ivan Nova is projected for four years and $52 M, which is the exact same projection as Mark Melancon. It seems the price of a top reliever is coming in the same or higher than some of the best starters. That makes sense, as the best starters this year would be the middle tier in most years, while the best relievers this year would be the best relievers in most years. Still, if I had a choice between Nova and Melancon at the same price, I’m banking on Nova continuing his final two months as a starter, which provides more value than Melancon at his best.
Nova’s projection shows that the market is expected to be higher this year. He’s projected for $13 M a year, but four years, which is the same price range as Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ, but one extra guaranteed year.
You can really see the inflation in the projections for Rich Hill and Jason Hammel. Hill is projected for three years and $50 M, despite being 37 in 2017, and having a long history of injuries, and a bad track record with inning totals. Hammel is 34, and is projected for three years and $42 M, just after the Cubs declined his $12 M option. That’s a weird situation, as he had elbow tightness in September, but the Cubs say he is healthy. If he was healthy, and getting this projection, you’d think they’d exercise the option and trade him. Both of these guys have injury risks, and yet they’re projected for three years and $14-17 M a year.
Taking the jump down to the reclamation projects, the discount seems to come with years more than dollars. Cashman is the pitcher projected to the Pirates on a one year and $8 M deal. Charlie Morton, who missed the entire 2016 season with a hamstring injury, is projected for the same contract. So is Edison Volquez, who declined his $10 M mutual option with the Royals (and got a $3 M buyout, thus netting him an extra million if he gets that $8 M). Finally, Derek Holland is projected for one year and $6 M, due to a series of injuries the last few years that have derailed him.
The relief market takes another drop after the elite guys, but the price is still high. Greg Holland, who was throwing 88-91 today according to several outlets, is projected for two years and $18 M. Neftali Feliz ended up a replacement level pitcher for the Pirates after fading down the stretch, and is projected for three years and $18 M. Some of the other bigger names like Sergio Romo, Travis Wood, and Brad Ziegler are projected for the $7-8 M range of the reclamation starters, but for two or three guaranteed years.
The Pirates have some money to spend, and could use at least one starting pitcher, along with another late inning reliever to add to their current mix. I’ve got them projected at $86 M, which is an amount that will go down when we find out how much they’re receiving for Antonio Bastardo. It could also go down based on other moves. They should have enough for one of the starters in Nova’s price range, along with a reliever in the next tier down from the group that includes Holland, Romo, Feliz, and so on. That, plus a few smaller minor league moves, would put them a little over $100 M, which is where they started off prior to the 2016 season.
Looking at the quality of players on the market, you’d have to wonder if going after a Nova type pitcher is the best approach. No matter what, the Pirates are banking largely on their internal guys like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon to headline the rotation. The need for a free agent is a need to bring in a solid third starter for the rotation. The problem is that all of the guys in the Hill/Nova/Hammel group have question marks. Their question marks might not be as big as the reclamation projects, but it seems that the price for the big guys went up, while the reclamation guys stayed around the same price as previous years. I’m not sure that should be the case.
I think you could make an argument in favor of going for multiple reclamation projects, rather than one “established” starter. It might not be as popular, and there would be complaints of the Pirates going cheap or going with the same failed strategy as the 2016 season. Neither of these would be accurate though. Two reclamation starters would cost the same as or more than one “established” guy. And the problem with the Pirates in 2016 was that the reclamation guys they went after had low upsides, and didn’t have the stuff to propel themselves to the middle or top of a rotation.
That’s not the case with guys like Cashner, who has averaged around 94-95 MPH in previous years, and has been worth about 2.5 fWAR on average the previous few years, up until 2016. We saw what Volquez could do as a reclamation project, and he carried that over in 2015, but fell off in 2016. His velocity didn’t really fall off though, and he still pitched 189 innings, which is much more valuable if he gets back to 2014-15 levels.
If it’s a choice between one starter in the Nova category and one starter in the reclamation group, I’d probably go for the guy in the Nova group. But I think the Pirates could afford two from the reclamation group, which changes the game. Nova seems safer because the Pirates helped to turn him around the final two months of the year. He seems safer because J.A. Happ was in a similar situation after the Pirates turned him around, and had success in the following year. So if the Pirates had two more reclamation projects with similar stuff and back stories to Nova and Happ, why wouldn’t they be able to do the same thing and turn around at least one of them?
I think the Pirates would be just as likely to get favorable results from one of two reclamation projects as they would be from one of the “established” starters on the market. And the hope would be that they get favorable results from both reclamation projects, or at least have one of them provide a boost to the bullpen. This would be a massive difference from their 2016 approach, and would largely be the same approach that led to so many of their successful pitching additions in the past.
I wouldn’t place the entire market value on the MLBTR article, and it will be interesting if other off-season previews agree with these salary predictions. But it’s not hard to imagine that the salaries will be inflated a small amount for the top guys, and that could make the reclamation guys a value in bulk.
**Analyzing Connor Joe’s Hidden Offense and His Future Position on the Field. My feature from the AFL on Connor Joe, looking at his hard contact this year, and how the Pirates are trying him at all the corner spots.
**AFL: Eric Wood Takes Over League Lead in Hitting, As Surprise Wins 8-5. Wood continues his strong 2016 campaign.
