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First Pitch: This Has the Potential to Be a Crazy Off-Season for the Pirates

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In most years, the off-season is pretty straight forward. A team has a specific set of needs, and they set out to address those needs through a trade or free agency. Teams will mostly fall into one of two categories of a buyer or a seller. And while there might be some teams that sell and buy, you usually don’t see extreme cases on either end.

That’s not the case with the Pirates this off-season. There’s a chance that this could be just a boring off-season where they find a starter and a reliever through free agency or a trade, and then go into the 2017 season relying on their young players to provide the biggest improvements. But I feel there’s an even bigger chance that we could see them acting as both buyers and sellers, and to the extremes in some cases.

We haven’t heard that the Pirates are shopping Andrew McCutchen. However, we have heard that they’re listening on deals when teams call and ask about their top player. They couldn’t reach a deal with the Nationals before the trade deadline, and talks didn’t go far with the Mariners recently. This suggests that they’re asking for a lot in return, as they should be doing.

We’ve also heard similar talk about Tony Watson. They’re not shopping him, but they’re willing to listen. This is the same thing we heard about Mark Melancon before he was traded, and we know the outcome there. The combination of McCutchen and Watson would normally put the Pirates firmly in the sellers category, as the idea of trading those two players wouldn’t point to a team that is aimed at contending in 2017.

But the Pirates are in a unique situation. They have a talented young team, with options to take over for McCutchen and Watson in the short and long-term. They had a losing season in 2016, although they still stayed within range of the playoffs for most of the year, and that was with little help from both of these players. Both players would still have value, enough that they could bring back some additional help to boost the current young group. And to top it all off, the Pirates still have a very talented farm system, with the ability to trade for help if they can’t find help on the free agent market.

To give an idea of how crazy this off-season could get, here is a further breakdown of the variables which could break everything open for the Pirates, and leave us all waiting for the dust to clear at the end of the off-season.

Andrew McCutchen

The biggest way to break open the off-season would be an Andrew McCutchen trade. The Pirates wouldn’t need to do much to replace him in the lineup. They’d have Austin Meadows set to arrive by mid-season at the earliest, and could rotate Josh Bell and Adam Frazier into the third outfield spot until then, possibly also adding Sean Rodriguez as additional super utility help. This formation would be very similar to what they saw down the stretch, with no set first baseman or right fielder, but a lot of guys rotating between the two spots.

A McCutchen trade should help in their search for pitching, either directly or indirectly. The direct approach would obviously involve McCutchen being traded for a young pitcher who can step into the rotation. However, the Pirates shouldn’t trade for need, as this can limit the return. We saw this last year, when they traded Neil Walker for Jon Niese, rather than going for some prospects with upside and addressing their pitching needs elsewhere. McCutchen will fetch more than a Jon Niese type pitcher, but if they limit themselves to pitching, they’re reducing the potential return.

The indirect approach would be either using the money saved from McCutchen’s contract to better their chances on a free agent, or using some of the prospects in a package for a pitcher on the trade market.

At $8 M/WAR, and if we assume McCutchen is worth 5 WAR per year, that gives him a trade value of $51.9 M. The 5 WAR figure might seem optimistic, but it’s a figure McCutchen has hit in the previous five years leading up to 2016 (he’s actually been at 5.5 fWAR or better), and any drop in value from 2016 would probably be off-set by McCutchen’s name, his previous success, and the fact that players of his caliber are rare on the trade market.

On the flip side of this, the two top starters on the trade market are Chris Sale and Chris Archer. Jeff Sullivan just did a good article on their trade values, showing that Sale is the better pitcher, but Archer might cost more, due to the lower salary and more years of control. It would take a lot to get either player, and the Pirates are one of the few teams in a good starting position with their farm system and top prospects. If you trade McCutchen for prospects, and then flip those prospects for one of these pitchers, you make it much easier to make this type of move.

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: I think the Pirates could be a much stronger overall team if they traded McCutchen and used that as an opportunity to address their weakness. They had a good offense last year, and that was with almost everyone struggling for extended periods, and with McCutchen struggling the first four months of the year. They’d see a drop over what the offense could do with McCutchen’s normal numbers most of the year, but I think they can still contend with this decline, especially if they upgrade the pitching.

Tony Watson

There has been some speculation that the Pirates could trade Tony Watson. After seeing the market for Brett Cecil, who just signed a four-year, $30.5 M deal with the Cardinals, I think the Pirates would be foolish to not entertain a Watson trade. Just to compare the two pitchers over the last three years:

Watson: 2.7 fWAR, 2.17 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 7.74 WPA, 114 shutdowns, 23 meltdowns

Cecil: 2.9 fWAR, 2.93 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, 0.73 WPA, 45 shutdowns, 22 meltdowns

Watson is coming off a down year, but so was Cecil. The down year was a bit worse for Watson, but if Cecil can get four years guaranteed at over $7 M per year, then Watson would have value at one year and a projected $5.9 M.

It’s really difficult to get a trade value for this, as relievers don’t project well in the trade values. There are also factors in play with Watson that would be appealing to some teams, like the fact that he only requires a one year deal, rather than a four year commitment to a similar reliever. Plus, there’s the depleted market with Cecil off the boards. At the least, I think the Pirates could get a repeat of the Mark Melancon deal, where they get a young reliever with years of control and late inning potential, and a projectable player in the lower levels.

By trading Watson, the bullpen would be weakened. But the Pirates could use that opportunity to go with a new approach, where they’re not locked in to traditional roles, and can use their best reliever in the biggest situations. They could also redirect Watson’s money and go with an approach similar to last off-season, when they spent $7 M on Juan Nicasio and Neftali Feliz, getting two hard throwers at discount prices. If you add two hard throwing relievers to the already existing combination of Felipe Rivero and Nicasio, plus whoever is returned for Watson, and the future contributions of Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas, then you could have a pretty dynamic bullpen with a lot of hard throwing arms.

Prospect Depth

I don’t think a trade of McCutchen or Watson is guaranteed, and I wouldn’t rule either option out. One thing I feel will most definitely happen is a trade from the Pirates’ minor league pitching depth, aimed at filling some holes in the bench and bullpen, along with adding depth to the team. I broke this down earlier in the week, noting that the Pirates have more pitching prospects than rotation spots, and could use that depth to upgrade the 2017 team.

This wouldn’t be a surprise at all, since they’ve taken this approach in previous years. They traded Stephen Tarpley at the deadline in a deal for Ivan Nova. In the last few years they’ve traded Shane Carle, Joely Rodriguez, and Buddy Borden, among others, to upgrade the bench and bullpen depth. I’d expect to see some minor trades, and perhaps even a bench or bullpen upgrade, from this trade depth.

Or, if they went for a bigger trade, they could tap into this, although most of the guys they could deal would be third or fourth pieces in a deal at best, rather than a cornerstone piece.

Free Agent Market

The Pirates have been linked to Sean Rodriguez and Derek Holland so far on the free agent market, and they negotiated with Ivan Nova during the season before he reached free agency. I currently have them projected for around $86 M, and that doesn’t include money they’re getting from the Mets for Antonio Bastardo.

Neal Huntington made comments earlier this week that would indicate their budget is at $100 M. If we use that figure, then they’d have room for Nova, or Rodriguez and a lower cost pitcher like Holland, assuming McCutchen and Watson stay on the team. The free agent market doesn’t really provide a lot of good options this year, so if the Pirates are choosing to keep the same team and just build through free agency with their current budget, they’re going to have a difficult time improving to the point where they can be a strong contender. That approach could still bring in good players, but it would also rely a lot more on the internal options seeing big improvements. This is a mistake they made last year, and hopefully they don’t repeat that approach.

I’d be surprised if they stuck with just free agents though. I could see a hybrid approach where they try to acquire talent through multiple avenues. They’ll almost certainly add free agents, but if they do some of the moves above, and especially if they trade McCutchen or Watson, then the free agent additions would likely go from being the key additions this off-season, to being supporting additions to add further depth. In other words, they could sign someone like Derek Holland, but also trade for someone who is better than Holland, thus making Holland a bonus, rather than someone who the entire off-season and 2017 season relies on.

**Pre-Order the Pirates Prospects 2017 Prospect Guide. The 2017 Prospect Guide will be released in January, and you can pre-order the book now.

**Edgar Santana and Eric Wood Stood Out for the Pirates in the AFL. John Dreker recaps the AFL season, with links to all of our live coverage and full analysis on the Pirates’ players who participated.

**Montana DuRapau’s Journey From a 32nd Round Pick to a Prospect. My final feature from the AFL, looking at an unlikely relief pitching prospect.

**Pirates Add Clay Holmes to the 40-Man Roster. The Pirates made most of their Rule 5 moves prior to the deadline, and Holmes was the only remaining pitcher who needed to be protected.

**Pirates Prospects Who Are Eligible For the 2016 Rule 5 Draft. Here are all of the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, with profiles on the top guys.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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