Last week I started off the 2016 outfield recaps by writing that Andrew McCutchen shouldn’t be playing center field anymore for the Pirates. There has been some speculation that the Pirates might shop McCutchen around this off-season, which leaves the chance that he could be traded. If that doesn’t happen, the Pirates will have a difficult decision in moving him off center field, and that decision is only difficult because they’ve made it difficult by giving him the say in when to move.
But you could argue that the decision might be difficult even if they do get him to change positions. Every time this topic comes up, there is a debate about where to put McCutchen. Few will argue that he’s a bad outfielder, and as I pointed out last week, he was the worst center fielder in baseball this year. He had horrible range, and no positive value from his arm.
The problem is, where do you put him? The arm disqualifies him from right field, and the range is still an issue in left field at PNC Park. There’s no really a perfect solution here, as the Pirates will have a bad outfielder at one position if McCutchen is still on the team, regardless of where he plays. But I don’t think “there’s no perfect solution” is a reason to just ignore the problem and keep McCutchen in center field, just because he’d be bad elsewhere. So I felt a rundown of the strengths and weaknesses at each position would make the picture a bit more clear.
Right Field
We’ll start with the easy one. McCutchen has a weak arm, and that’s made obvious by the strong arms on either side of him with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. Right field at PNC Park doesn’t require as much range as the other two spots, although it still requires some range, since the wall angles deeper into right-center once you get beyond the Clemente Wall.
The big issue here is the need for a strong arm in right field. You need to be able to throw out runners trying to stretch a double into a triple, trying to go first to third, or trying to stretch a single into a double. And it’s not entirely about throwing them out, but just having the ability to throw them out, to keep most of them from trying. McCutchen doesn’t have that ability, which means you’d see a lot of runners taking more chances on extra bases, and a lot of those chances succeeding.
Center Field
You need a strong arm for center field as well. It has some of the deepest parts of the park, and while it can be closer to second or third base than right field, it still requires some arm strength to throw a runner out. You might be less likely to see a guy trying to stretch a double into a triple on a ball hit to center, or going from first to third. But if you’ve got a guy with a bad arm, you’ll see him tested more often, and that has been the case with McCutchen.
Center field requires a lot more range. Right field at PNC Park does span back to 375 feet in right-center. But center field goes back to 399 feet in deep center, and 410 in the notch. We’ve seen the Pirates attempting to counter this with McCutchen the last few years, playing him deeper pre-2016, and playing him shallow in 2016. The idea in each case was that his speed would allow him to cover the ground ahead of or behind him. But his lack of range has backfired with that plan, and I’m not sure that normal positioning would lead to good results.
The arm is still an issue here, but range is the bigger problem, as center field has the most ground to cover.
Left Field
In most outfields, the arm would matter the least in left field. It matters a bit more at PNC Park, since left field is deep there, spanning back to 389 feet, and 419 to the notch. Center field is still deeper, and you have to deal with balls to both gaps. But left field still requires a lot of range, which is a downside for McCutchen. It also means the arm matters a bit more.
Even with the arm mattering more, I don’t think it would matter more than center field. You’ve got a closer throw to third base from left field, along with a more optimal throw home, since the catcher doesn’t have to turn as much to make the tag after receiving the throw. Left field still plays like a second center field in PNC Park, which is usually the argument against McCutchen playing there. But of the two “center fields”, left field requires less for range and less for the arm.
Scouting vs Stats
Baseball America lists the priorities that scouts apply when grading each position in the outfield. They are as follows, from the tool with the most value to the tool with the least value.
Right Field: Power, Hitting, Arm, Fielding, Speed
Center Field: Fielding, Hitting, Speed, Power, Arm
Left Field: Power, Hitting, Fielding, Arm, Speed
In terms of the arm priority, the current layout is the best. Polanco and Marte have the strongest arms, and Marte is a better fielder, which has more value in left field, especially in PNC Park.
But in terms of the fielding, the current layout is wrong. McCutchen plays the position where fielding matters the most, and where speed matters the most, and he is the worst of the three right now in each category.
In terms of stats, it’s hard to compare range over multiple positions, mostly because we don’t have a good sample to draw from. Polanco played 202.1 innings in left field this year, and had a 1.4 range, which is one of three components that make up his UZR.* He was at 2.7 in right field, and only had 21.1 innings in center field, so it’s hard to even discuss his value there.
*I’m going to take a moment here to explain the makeup of UZR. It is made up of a few components, such as ARM (outfield arm runs), DPR (double play runs, which applies to infielders), RngR (range runs, which we’re discussing here), and ErrR (error runs, which compares their errors to the league average player at their position). The run ratings for each are added up to get UZR. For more on UZR, I’d recommend this article.
Marte has 443.1 innings total in center field, and has mostly been in the -0.7 to -1.6 area for his range. That compares to 2.9 to 3.5 the last few years in left field.
McCutchen’s range this year was -18.3, and he’s been -4.3 and -3.4 respectively the last two years.
If we use Marte’s numbers as a guide, he’ll go from positive value in left to neutral value in center, which is still a massive improvement over McCutchen. Meanwhile, McCutchen should see some upgrade moving to left field, at least in the sense that he’s not going to hurt the defense as much.
The arm is where you see a trade-off. Marte had a 4.5 ARM rating in left. His highest was a 2.3 in center field in 2015. Keep in mind that his 4.5 in left this year was in 966.2 innings, while the 2.3 in center (which came in 2015) was in 103 innings. The other years were below 1.0 in center, although with very little playing time. It’s hard to judge this, as the playing time gives fewer opportunities for throws. He should still have positive value here, especially when you give more innings and more opportunities. Meanwhile, McCutchen has had slightly negative value most of his career, with his worst year being -6.2 in 2014. He’s had one year with positive value, which was a 1.7 in 2013. But we haven’t seen his value in left field, since he hasn’t played there. So in the case of the arm, we really don’t have the stats to go on.
What we do know is that McCutchen would still be a bad defender in left field. But that doesn’t really change the fact that the Pirates would have a bad defender at one of their outfield spots. It just shifts the position for that defender. I think right field is the least desirable option of the three, and left field in PNC Park is going to still be kind of bad for half the season. But I don’t think the team would be worse off with McCutchen in left and Marte in center. I think the reduction in McCutchen’s negative value would be greater than the limitations on Marte’s positive value.
Of course, the really difficult decision here might be that the Pirates are better off trading McCutchen while he could still have star value, or something close to it. He could return to being a 5+ fWAR player next year, even if he moves to left or has negative value in center field. But I’m not optimistic about how his trade value would be after the 2017 season if he has another defensive year like 2016, or if he has another year that includes a slump that last multiple months, or both. In defensive terms, the Pirates would definitely be better off moving away from McCutchen. But that requires an entirely different article on the offensive downgrade, and what they could get in return to off-set that downgrade. And if you’re interested in that article, I wrote it last month.
**I’m heading out to Phoenix tomorrow for Arizona Fall League live coverage.
**2016 Right Field Recap: The Almost Breakout Season From Gregory Polanco. The final recap of the Pirates’ season, with each article including a look to the future with a focus on the prospects in the system.
**Connor Joe and Edgar Santana to Represent Pirates in AFL Fall-Stars Game. I’ll be covering this game live again this year, surrounded by scouts and other prospect writers who always offer up opinions on every player in the game.
**AFL: Surprise Shuts Out Glendale 2-0 on Monday Afternoon. The recap from today. The good news is that no Pirates pitcher went today, so I should see them the rest of this week.
