Last night it seemed that the White Sox and Nationals were close to a trade for Chris Sale, which would have made it very unlikely for the Nationals to make a deal for Andrew McCutchen. That all changed today, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that the Red Sox have reached a deal to acquire Sale.
BREAKING: Sale to #RedSox. Moncada, Kopech and two other prospects to #WhiteSox.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2016
The rumors heading into the week were that the Nationals were trying to get two of three players from the Andrew McCutchen/Mark Melancon/Chris Sale group. Melancon signed with the Giants yesterday. The rumors yesterday said that the Nationals were putting their focus on acquiring Sale, with reports last night saying they were willing to deal Victor Robles and Lucas Giolito, and that they were haggling on the final pieces of a deal.
You’d have to wonder if this means a Pirates/Nationals trade is more likely. The Pirates have been reportedly trying to get Victor Robles and Lucas Giolito from the Nationals. With their top option off the board, the Nationals could turn back to the Pirates and re-start the McCutchen talks.
Last night I wrote about the market for McCutchen if Sale was traded to the Nationals. The Nationals, with Robles and Giolito available as trade pieces, clearly are the best match for the best return. I don’t think losing out on Sale will mean the Nationals will be willing to overpay for McCutchen, which is why I still don’t think Robles and Giolito is a realistic return. But missing out on Sale means that they’ve got more top prospects for the Pirates to choose from, which makes a deal more possible.
We’ll see how this move impacts those talks as the meetings move forward.
UPDATE 3:19 PM: Jon Heyman says that the Nationals are going after McCutchen again.
Nats are going for McCutchen now. Not easy to see them going 0 for 3. Dodgers, others are looking at cutch, too, tho.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 6, 2016
This isn’t a surprise, for reasons listed above. There were several teams reportedly looking at McCutchen yesterday, and the Dodgers were one of them. Heyman indicates that they’re still in the mix. We’ll see how aggressive the Nationals get after missing out on their first two big targets.
UPDATE 4:12 PM: Byron Kerr of MASN also reports that the Nationals are talking McCutchen again, and that the two teams had a meeting this afternoon, per a source.
#Nats and #Pirates talks back on regarding McCutchen; meeting this afternoon, according to source with knowledge of situation
— Byron Kerr (@ByronKerr) December 6, 2016
UPDATE 5:34 PM: I guess there’s no real need for an anonymous source to say the Nationals are pursuing McCutchen, when their General Manager comes out and says it.
Mike Rizzo acknowledged Andrew McCutchen is one of the players Nats are discussing. Would not specify others.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 6, 2016
Several people have noted that the Nationals could go many different directions now to look for talent, whether it’s bullpen help, rotation help, or even outfield help. So they don’t necessarily have to stick with McCutchen. But the fact that he’s been one of the big guys on their radar suggests they would focus on him more than those other options.
UPDATE 12:20 AM: The reports out of Washington say that the Nationals aren’t willing to part with Victor Robles.
Don't expect Robles to reappear in offers for other players. But the Nats could well be back in play on McCutchen.
— Barry Svrluga (@barrysvrluga) December 7, 2016
Nationals unwilling to part with Robles now that Sale is off the table. So not for McCutchen, etc.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 7, 2016
A deal for McCutchen could still happen without Robles, but would be very heavy on the pitching side. Lucas Giolito would be the other top prospect to target in a deal. He was one of the top ten prospects in the game at mid-season, although it’s hard to say whether he’s dropped since then. JJ Cooper of Baseball America tweeted yesterday that it’s not a slam dunk that Giolito should be the ask over Reynaldo Lopez. I’m not sure if that means Giolito’s stock has dropped, Lopez has seen his value increase, or both. Considering Giolito’s velocity was down a bit at the end of the year, I’d say it’s likely his value has dropped a bit.
Lopez would be a good secondary piece in a deal, and I wrote last night about how Joe Ross could be a good long-term rotation option, although potentially without a lot of upside. Robles would provide the biggest upside in a deal though.
Even though the reports say that Robles won’t be included, I don’t think the Pirates should stop pushing for him, and I’m not entirely convinced he is untouchable. Last night, there were reports out of Washington that they didn’t want to trade any of their top prospects. As Barry Svrluga reported in the tweet above, they were willing to deal Robles, Giolito, and Lopez in one deal. So there’s been a bit of negotiating through the media going on here.
It’s also possible that they are sincere this time around, and that they’d only make that offer for Sale. I don’t expect the Pirates to back off their asking price, so we’ll have to see if the Nationals become willing to offer Robles for McCutchen, just like they were going to do with Sale.
In other news, the Rangers are seemingly out of the mix for McCutchen after signing Carlos Gomez tonight. That said, the Rangers were never really a great fit, and the best competitor for the Nationals still remains the Dodgers.