It was expected that the Andrew McCutchen rumor mill would be busy this week, and it didn’t take long for those rumors to start. Jon Morosi reports that the Dodgers have shown recent interest in the center fielder.
#Dodgers have shown recent interest in Andrew McCutchen, source confirms. @MLB #Pirates
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 5, 2016
Prior to this rumor, we’ve heard that the Nationals, Rangers, and Mariners have been talking with the Pirates about McCutchen, with the Nationals being the most active in talks. There have been some trade ideas that the Dodgers could work, most notably with Jim Bowden suggesting Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger as a trade return that would make sense. Keep in mind that this was only an idea, and doesn’t mean those players would be involved in talks.
That said, the Pirates are pushing for Victor Robles and young, MLB-ready pitching in their talks with the Nationals, so it would only make sense that they would at least be going after De Leon. We’ll see if that’s the case if more rumors come out about the talks.
As for the Nationals talks, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals believe they can get one or both of McCutchen and Chris Sale without giving up Trea Turner or even Victor Robles. It’s an article that seems one-sided in the trade talks, suggesting that the Nationals could get both players while keeping their top young hitters, and maybe even keeping some of their top young pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, and dealing from guys like Gio Gonzalez and Danny Espinosa.
That all seems about as unlikely as the Pirates landing Robles and Giolito, or getting Robles and two other players, including one of the young MLB pitchers the Nationals have. The Nationals might have that bargaining power if they were the only ones after each player, but there are other teams pursuing McCutchen and Sale, which means the advantage is on the seller’s side. It’s possible that this rumor about the Dodgers is being leaked as a reminder to the Nationals that they’re not the only team the Pirates are talking with.
Ultimately, I think the Nationals would only have enough prospects to land one of those two players, and McCutchen would be cheaper, since he has less trade value than Sale.
UPDATE 11:45 AM: Jon Heyman says there is a mystery team involved.
There is said to be "mystery team" in McCutchen talks that has not been mentioned publicly yet. Not surprising. Great player
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2016
So we’ve officially hit peak McCutchen rumors.
UPDATE 11:54 AM: Andy McCullough says that the Dodgers don’t want to give up Cody Bellinger, although not in relation to the McCutchen rumor.
Heard rival execs describe him in trade talks as if not untouchable, then someone the Dodgers would very much prefer not to be touched. https://t.co/kNBycQMQL4
— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) December 5, 2016
This isn’t a surprise that a team would want to keep their top prospects, while also trying to get a good MLB player. But as I noted above with the Nationals, it only really works if they’re the only team discussing a deal.
UPDATE 1:37 PM: The Rangers have also been in frequent contact on McCutchen, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Sources: #Rangers in frequent contact with #Pirates on McCutchen. Deal possible, but not close.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2016
As Rosenthal notes, a deal here isn’t close. However, the Rangers would be interesting if a deal is possible, since their best pieces would be young, MLB players, rather than higher upside prospects. The best piece might be Joey Gallo, who rated 11th overall in Baseball America’s mid-season rankings (Victor Robles was 13th).
Overall, it seems like the market right now for McCutchen is active, with more teams than Washington going for him.
UPDATE 1:43 PM: Buster Olney also says the Rangers have interest in McCutchen. However, Jon Heyman is hearing it’s “not likely” that they would pay the price for him.
As mentioned here last week, Rangers have interest in Andrew McCutchen. One of the options they're considering for CF.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 5, 2016
Hearing "not likely" on rangers paying the price for McCutchen. @Ken_Rosenthal mentioned talk, which in itself is interesting
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2016
This makes sense, as the Rangers would have to deal away young MLB players to make a trade work, and they might be better off rolling the dice with those younger players and going for a lesser option in center field.
UPDATE 3:22 PM: A few notes on the asking price from the Pirates’ side, which appears to be high on all fronts.
#pirates ask of Robles & Giolito was rebuffed by Nats, who also wonder about McCutchen's possible skill decline, leadership
— RobBiertempfel (@RobBiertempfel) December 5, 2016
Rangers finding asking price for McCutchen very high…established starter and prospects
— TR Sullivan (@Sullivan_Ranger) December 5, 2016
The asking price for the Nationals would be high. The Pirates should be able to get one of those prospects and a second prospect for McCutchen, but not both. The trade value for both players would be around $61 M, with McCutchen being worth $52 M at a 5.0 WAR value. Meanwhile, it seems the asking price is the same for the Rangers, with an established starter and prospects. That comes with the complication that the Rangers don’t have a lot of top prospects in their system to choose from.
UPDATE 3:49 PM: It looks like the Nationals are focusing more on Chris Sale than McCutchen right now.
Sources: #Nationals more focused on Sale than Cutch. #WhiteSox likely would get Robles, Giolito, much more. No indication deal is close.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2016
It would probably only cost one of those prospects in a McCutchen deal, with one other top prospect involved. Sale would cost more, and if this report by Rosenthal is correct, it would appear the Nationals are fine paying that price in prospects for Sale. Of course, no deal is close, so we’ll see how this all plays out.
UPDATE 6:10 PM: Joel Sherman backs up what Ken Rosenthal tweeted earlier, so it looks like nothing has changed on that front.
#Nationals have found #Pirates ask for McCutchen too high. More focused on Sale #chisox and other options
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 5, 2016
UPDATE 8:12 PM: Mark Zuckerman of MASN reports that the Nationals are unwilling to include their top prospects in trades. Zuckerman talked with Nationals’ General Manager Mike Rizzo, who noted that they went after players at the deadline, but didn’t want to give up prospects at the time. Not much has changed since the deadline, per Rizzo. Zuckerman also noted that the Nationals have held this strategy for seven years under Rizzo.
The flip side to this is that the Nationals might not get the players they want if they don’t give up top prospects in these deals. I don’t see the Pirates or the White Sox settling for a package of quantity, in place of top prospects like Robles or Giolito in the deal. It seems that either the Nationals will stick to their plan and no deal will get done, or they’ll decide to make a move and go for one of the two players. I seriously doubt they’d go from the extreme of never trading top prospects to the other extreme of unloading for both players.
UPDATE 9:18 PM: It’s looking like the Nationals are getting closer to a deal for Sale, and that they’d be moving on from McCutchen.
Sources: Legitimate chance of Sale trade to #Nationals. Robles, Giolito would go to #WhiteSox. Teams haggling over final pieces in deal.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2016
Nats don't think they have prospects to get both sale and McCutchen. But as said earlier, they seem focused on sale now.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 6, 2016
If the Nationals traded Robles and Giolito for Sale, that wouldn’t leave much remaining for a McCutchen trade. The Pirates were gunning for both of those players, with Robles being mentioned the most often. But if those two are both gone, the Nationals wouldn’t have the prospects to make a deal for McCutchen. The only way it would work is if they tried for a trade with a package of prospects to make up for the guy at the top, but that isn’t something the Pirates should focus on for McCutchen.