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First Pitch: Breaking Down the Young Pitchers Competing For the Pirates’ Rotation

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The big mistake the Pirates made last off-season was that they relied too much on their young starting pitching prospects to provide an impact. They had Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, and Trevor Williams in the Triple-A rotation, with most of those guys expected to arrive in the middle of the 2016 season. As a result, they acquired lower upside guys for the rotation, trading for Jon Niese and signing Ryan Vogelsong and Juan Nicasio.

The plan didn’t work. Every member of the rotation under-performed, which wasn’t good for the off-season additions, as it took them from back of the rotation starters to guys who didn’t look like they belonged in the majors as a starter. The prospects did arrive, but didn’t provide the impact the Pirates were hoping for, although at that point it might have been impossible for the prospects to turn the rotation around.

The Pirates are in a similar situation for the 2017 season, although it’s a bit better. They’re not waiting until mid-season for a lot of their young pitchers to arrive. They have a lot of options who could compete for the Opening Day rotation, and other players who could provide depth throughout the year.

It’s important that they don’t repeat their mistake from last year, and add at least one guy who could be better than a back of the rotation starter. I’ve written about that a lot this off-season. Tonight, I wanted to change pace, looking at the young pitchers who could help the Pirates’ rotation in 2017. Note that I’m not including Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon, since they’re the only ones with guaranteed spots right now. The guys below don’t have the same upsides, although this makes sense, as it’s why the Pirates need a better number three starter.

Chad Kuhl – He doesn’t have a guaranteed spot, but Kuhl does have an inside track after his rookie performance in 2016. Right now he’s the number three guy by default, but he’s going to be better off as the fourth or fifth best member of the rotation right now, at least until he gets more established in the majors. If he somehow doesn’t make the Opening Day rotation (which means the Pirates added a few good starting pitching options), then he would be the top depth option out of Triple-A.

Tyler Glasnow – He’s the highest upside of the group, but showed last year that he’s not quite ready. He needs to work on his changeup to develop a third pitch, and better command of his fastball and curveball would help. I’m doubtful that he’s going to be ready by Opening Day, and hopeful that he can turn things around before the middle of the 2017 season. The good thing is the Pirates have other depth if he doesn’t turn it around. They weren’t in as strong of a position last year in this scenario.

Steven Brault – Brault is going to need a better out pitch in order to be a good option for the Pirates in 2017. He had a lot of strikeouts in Triple-A, although that was mostly due to being able to command the fastball all over the zone with deception. That won’t be as effective in the majors, leading to him being a back of the rotation guy, or a bullpen arm. I think the latter is his future with the Pirates in the long-term, when you consider all of the rotation options in the system.

Trevor Williams – He’s the right-handed Brault. He gets a lot of ground balls, has good movement and good deception on his fastball, but lacks a strikeout pitch. He could help in the majors as a back of the rotation guy, or a depth option. I think his long-term spot if he stays with the Pirates would be a bullpen arm.

Drew Hutchison – He’s not a prospect or close to a prospect like the other guys on this list so far, but he is going to be in the mix for a rotation spot, and possibly more than some of the names above. Hutchison almost seems like a reclamation project this year. He doesn’t seem to have a lot of upside, but could have some value as a back of the rotation guy, being just two years removed from a 2.3 fWAR. Again, the Pirates will need to bring in a better starter.

Nick Kingham – Kingham is the first guy on this list who definitely won’t be ready by Opening Day in his first full year back from Tommy John. He will try to follow the Jameson Taillon path, trying to force his way on the team by the middle of the season. If he returns to the pitcher he was prior to his surgery, then he could be the second best guy on this list in terms of upside, trailing only Glasnow.

Casey Sadler/Angel Sanchez/Brandon Cumpton – Speaking of guys returning from injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if these three go to the Indianapolis bullpen upon their return. Sadler seems like the best of the prospects, looking like a spot start option at best, but possibly being a heavy sinkerball reliever. Sanchez might have the best stuff of the group, but is getting older, and I don’t think expecting his stuff to return to where it was is the same practice as expecting Kingham to bounce back. Cumpton is a project at this point, missing two years with Tommy John and shoulder surgery. If the Pirates needed these three for starts, we’d be looking at the number 10-12 rotation spots, most likely.

Frank Duncan – Duncan was pushed to the bullpen at the start of the 2016 season in Altoona, but quickly worked his way back to the rotation, and quickly pushed his way up to Indianapolis. The sinkerballer is probably going to have to prove himself again this year, since he’s stuck in Triple-A with a lot of other talented pitchers, with most of them ranked higher than him on the depth chart.

**Nick Kingham Is Following Jameson Taillon’s Path Back From Tommy John Surgery. Kingham discusses working out with Taillon this off-season, and how he wants to follow the same path to the majors.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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