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First Pitch: Let’s Talk About the Starting Pitching Approach For the Pirates

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The Andrew McCutchen situation took an interesting turn today. At the end of the day on Monday, it looked like the Washington Nationals had moved away from McCutchen, and were closing in on a deal for Chris Sale. That changed this morning, when the Red Sox swooped in and acquired Sale, leaving the Nationals without another one of their top targets.

They have since moved back to focusing on McCutchen, although we’re back to the same old hard ball negotiations where the Nationals refuse to deal Victor Robles, and the Pirates insist they don’t even have to trade McCutchen. Both of those could technically be true, but in order for a deal to work, one team has to move off their position.

There has been plenty of McCutchen talk so far, which makes sense, as it’s the most important subject for the Pirates’ off-season right now. But let’s take a break from that tonight, and focus on another very important topic: Starting pitching.

Neal Huntington met with the media this afternoon, and had a typical GM-speak comment about their ability to add a starting pitcher.

Huntington said the Pirates could go beyond one starter and add two guys, or they would be comfortable with no additions if none made sense. With three outcomes available (zero, one, or two starters), I’ll let you take a guess which number Pirates fans focused on the most.

I think it’s ridiculous to assume the Pirates won’t get a starting pitcher. That’s the type of early-December worrying that exists every year, and it ignores that this statement is just Huntington in negotiation mode. If he says “we have to add someone” or guarantees that they will add someone, then he’s putting himself in a bad position during negotiations. And really, if you consider the history, it’s almost a guarantee that the Pirates will add a starter.

Last year, the Pirates added Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. Those aren’t the best starters (and before I lose you, I’ll get into that in a second), but they added two starters, with a third option in Juan Nicasio.

In 2015, they re-signed Francisco Liriano and brought back A.J. Burnett. The year before that, they added Edinson Volquez in the off-season, and made a late trade for Vance Worley at the end of Spring Training to add depth. The 2013 season saw them sign Liriano for the first time, while adding Jonathan Sanchez as another rotation option. And then in 2012, they added Burnett the first time, while also adding Erik Bedard.

Every year for the last five years (the years the Pirates have been competitive), they have added at least two starting pitchers. Most of the second options haven’t worked out. The exceptions were Worley as a solid depth option in 2014, and the Liriano/Burnett pair that worked out well in 2015. So it’s pretty much a guarantee that they’re going to add at least one starting pitcher, and they will probably add two, with the second one possibly being a depth option. Neal Huntington has made too many comments about how you need eight or nine starting pitchers for his comment about them adding zero starters to be believable. And their track record, plus those comments on depth, make it seem likely that they could actually add two starters.

The quality of the starters is a totally different issue. We’re fresh off the 2016 season, which was partially derailed by a bad off-season last year. Part of what made that a bad off-season was their approach to pitching. They added high upside guys every year prior to that season, with Burnett, Liriano, Volquez, and Liriano and Burnett again. But last off-season they went against that trend, going for lower upside guys in Niese and Vogelsong, who projected as back of the rotation options.

I don’t know if I’d project the same approach this year. They’ve had four years where they went for a high upside guy, and one year where they went for lower upside, and then they publicly said that was a mistake. But it makes for a better column if I explain why that is a bad approach, and then we can all criticize them for the possibility that they might take this approach again, and feel good about our position as armchair GMs. So here we go.

Some of the rumors that have come out so far have been similar to last year’s approach. The biggest one has been the Derek Holland rumor, who the Pirates have been connected to constantly. I don’t see him getting back to being a 3-4 WAR pitcher, due to a drop in velocity and a drop in strikeouts since his best year in 2013. At this point, I think the best to hope for is a guy who can give you innings and league average numbers, which is the Niese/Vogelsong approach.

Holland wouldn’t be bad as a second rotation option to add to the depth at the back-end, with the slim hope that maybe something can be fixed to get his velocity and strikeout stuff back. But that’s not something the Pirates should be banking on as their main addition. Their best reclamation projects — those guys from previous off-seasons, plus in-season additions like J.A. Happ and Ivan Nova — all had their velocity and strikeout stuff before turning things around with the Pirates. Holland would be moving away from a formula that works, and we saw how that worked out last year.

There have been other rumors that the Pirates are going after better starters than Holland. They were linked to Jake Odorizzi yesterday, which picks up where they left off at the trade deadline on their talks with the Rays. Odorizzi doesn’t have the highest velocity, but can generate strikeouts and has been consistently a 2-3 fWAR player the last three years. I also feel like he’s capable of more than that, and he will turn 27 a few days before Opening Day, so there’s reason to think the best could be yet to come.

Then there are guys who the Pirates haven’t been connected to, but who have hit the market in the last few days. Tyson Ross is an interesting option if his shoulder is healthy. Word is that the Red Sox might shop Drew Pomeranz and/or Clay Buchholz after their addition of Sale. The Pirates did try to extend Ivan Nova before the end of the season, but he turned them down. There hasn’t really been much talk about him this off-season, although that could pick up with Rich Hill off the market. And then there’s the possibility that they could add someone in a McCutchen trade, although I don’t see the potential for a high upside addition, unless they add someone like Jose De Leon or Lucas Giolito and they immediately reach their upside in 2017.

There are some good options for the Pirates, and it would be disappointing if Holland is their biggest rotation addition. They’d be better off trading a top prospect to get a “sure thing” like Odorizzi, or trading a lesser prospect and taking on salary for a bounce back guy like Pomeranz, or spending a bit more money than they’re used to on a reclamation project like Ross, or just spending money to bring back Nova. And if they make one of those moves, then it might make sense to also add Holland as a second option, pairing the two starters with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Chad Kuhl.

I’d be surprised if the Pirates address their starting pitching needs before they figure out what they’re doing with McCutchen. And if they trade McCutchen, they’d definitely have enough money to bring in a better starter than Holland. But even if they don’t trade McCutchen, they’re going to need a better starting pitcher than Holland to help boost their current rotation and give them a chance to be strong contenders in 2017.

**Pirates One of Two Teams Pursuing Derek Holland, Expressing Interest in Daniel Hudson. These would be good additions as long as they’re not the top additions.

**After Missing Out on Chris Sale, Nationals Are Going For Andrew McCutchen Again. All of today’s rumors on McCutchen, which mostly involved the Nationals.

**Winter Leagues: Jason Rogers Set to Make His Winter Debut in the Dominican. Rogers is out of options and will need to be on the MLB roster or designated for assignment next year.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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