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Baseball Prospectus Has Austin Meadows as Top Prospect for Pirates

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Baseball Prospectus released their top ten prospects list for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Austin Meadows sits in the top spot (subscription required). Meadows was second overall on BP’s list last year, trailing only Tyler Glasnow for the top spot. The two of them flipped spots on the list this year and Glasnow now ranks second. They are followed in the top ten (in order) by Josh Bell, Mitch Keller, Kevin Newman, Will Craig, Cole Tucker, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Steven Brault and Braeden Ogle.

The article explains in detail how they came up with the ranking of Glasnow second and Keller fourth, with the basic idea being that despite Glasnow’s flaws, he already has Major League experience, while Keller spent almost the entire season in Low-A, so there is more risk. It goes into greater detail than that, and I don’t want to give away more from a site that relies on subscriptions, but that’s the main starting point. One small note about the risk, and it’s that they do mention that Keller has only made one start in High-A ball a couple times, which ignores the two playoff starts (I think they just missed that since it doesn’t show up in the stats). That second playoff start was eight shutout innings in the finals, so it’s a little tough to ignore. Three starts compared to one isn’t a big deal, but playoff starts should hold a little more importance than an average start.

As for Meadows, they list his upside as being “Christian Yelich mold”, while ending up as an above average left fielder is the likely result for his career. The comps for Glasnow are upside of a number two starter, who will likely end up as a number three, who looks better at times. One of the things that apparently didn’t cost Meadows the top spot, was discussed here last night. They called Meadows “slightly injury prone” throughout his career and they want to see him stay healthy for a full season. We all know Meadows was healthy for the entire 2015 season, so he’s shown recently he can play that full season they want to see.

After Newman, BP notes that the list quickly drops off. That is something most lists would indicate by having the same five players in the top five for the Pirates. There is a clear drop-off after the top five, which is a group that should make every top 100 prospects list. That however, doesn’t mean the Pirates don’t have a strong group of prospects after the fifth spot. They have a lot of depth, but no one who has separated from the pack. The recent prospects lists all seem to go in different directions after Newman, even if they have the same group of players. There is no clear cut top ten, or 6-10, but I wouldn’t call it a weak group.

The Pirates still have nice depth at this point. My own personal way of judging that is “guys who have a top 50 feel”. When we put together the top 50 list, some of the early lists back in day had players near the end to fill out the top 50, even though they didn’t feel like they should be there. They were just better than the rest. When we did the top 50 this year, our “just missed” group had numerous guys who felt like top 50 prospects going into the rankings, and I even had two players who I felt were sure top 50 players, yet they were outside the “just missed” group of 15 players once the votes were tabulated. That is how I judge depth in the system. When you have multiple players who feel like they have a shot at being legit prospects, but you look over the top 50 and can’t find room for them. It also works with the top 20 and top 30 to judge strength of the group at the top.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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