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Is the Dream Outfield Still a Realistic Expectation For the Pirates?

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BRADENTON, Fla. – The Pirates made a good move this year when they readjusted their outfield, putting Starling Marte in center field and moving Andrew McCutchen to right field. The skills of all three of their outfielders should have meant a move for McCutchen long before the 2017 season. His decline in speed and defense over the last four years has been concerning, and reached an all-time low last year when he was the worst defensive center fielder in baseball. If there was ever a time to make the move, it was now.

The act of putting Marte in center field, and using metrics to put Polanco in left and McCutchen in right (playing to their specific range statistics), means the Pirates should have a pretty easy upgrade to their outfield already built-in for the 2017 season.

There are other upgrades to be had though, and those come on offense. The obvious one would be McCutchen bouncing back to his pre-2016 offensive numbers. But what about the other two players in the Dream Outfield?

Starling Marte has quietly been one of the best position players in baseball over the last few years. He ranks 20th in WAR out of 297 qualified players from 2013-2016. Andrew McCutchen has been better during that span, ranking 5th on the list. However, we might be entering a point where McCutchen will continue to perform below Marte, even if McCutchen bounces back from 2016.

A big reason for Marte’s value is his defense, and he will become more valuable in center field. But his offense has led to him ranking 44th in wRC+ and 56th in wOBA over those years. That’s among all players. If you look at the 120 outfielders during that span, Marte ranks 29th in wOBA and 20th in wRC+. He also ranks 4th in WAR out of that outfield group.

Marte didn’t exactly have a down year last year, but there’s more potential in his game, specifically with the power production. He had an ISO just above .160 in 2013 and 2014, and his career rate is .158. He was at .145 last year, and it was the first year he didn’t have double-digit homers. That is an area he could improve upon.

“There’s more power there I think,” Clint Hurdle said. “[Marte’s 2016 home runs] were more an outlier than anything else. … He’s continuing to grow and educate himself as a hitter. I do think the ability to drive the ball to the gap will eventually just turn into more power to drive the ball out of the ballpark.”

Marte isn’t too concerned by the drop in production from last year, and the 28-year-old still thinks he can hit for power.

“The numbers dropping, that hasn’t been a distraction to me,” Marte said through team translator Mike Gonzalez. “Everyone knows what caliber of player I am, and what I have to offer. Home runs will come when it’s the right time for them to come. My focus right now is just playing the game right, stealing those bases, getting on base, making those hits.”

The Pirates might get a bit of a boost if Marte sees his power bounce back in 2017. But he was still a 4 WAR player last year, and most of the improvements in his value in 2017 would come from the new defensive position. The bigger place for improvements might come from Gregory Polanco.

Polanco got hopes elevated last year, looking for the first two months like he may have finally started his long-awaited breakout campaign. He had a .310/.386/.556 line through the first two months of the season, which are numbers that would put him in the MVP discussion over the course of a season.

But Polanco started to fade after that. His OPS dropped to .778 in June, .765 in July, and .758 in August. It then took a dive to .511 in September as he battled some injuries and soreness. This was the second time that Polanco dealt with a late season injury that impacted his production. He responded by focusing on his conditioning this offseason.

“This offseason I worked harder than ever,” Polanco said. “I started working in November to prepare my body. I’m in a good position now to play 100% every day.”

Polanco said it took him a month to recover from the regular season, and then he proceeded to work on that offseason plan. When asked about the second half slump and the late struggles, he said it was because of fatigue.

“I got tired last year,” Polanco said. “But I’m working hard to not get tired and hurt, and be ready for the season and the playoffs, too.”

It remains to be seen whether Polanco can manage to put things together for an entire season. We’ve seen him do that for two months, and if he can continue that production an entire year, he would provide the Pirates their biggest boost on offense in 2017.

The Pirates have a lot of opportunities for upgrades from the Dream Outfield. There’s the defensive alignment upgrades, the chances for McCutchen to bounce back with his offense, the chance for Marte to rebound in the power department, and the chance for Polanco to still have a breakout over a full season. Not to mention, if one of them struggles or gets hurt, they’ve got Austin Meadows in Triple-A.

For years, this group was described as the Dream Outfield due to their ability to be the best trio in baseball, and for their ability to lead the Pirates to being strong contenders. That didn’t happen last year, but there are a lot of opportunities for it to work out as expected in 2017.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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