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Extra Innings: What is the Next Step in Mitch Keller’s Development?

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BRADENTON, Fla. – The Pirates have a pretty set routine when it comes to the prep pitchers they draft. Those pitchers spend half a season in the GCL after signing. They go to extended Spring Training and then Bristol the following year for their first full pro season. Then, if they are developed enough, they go to West Virginia for a full season, always ending the season at the level.

Well, almost always. That trend ended last year with Mitch Keller, who made the jump to Bradenton at the end of the season, and helped lead the Marauders to a Florida State League championship in the playoffs. Keller had a huge breakout season in 2016, showing improvements with his command, his velocity, his changeup, and other areas of his game. The result was that he averages as a top 30 prospect in all of baseball now, and ranks as high as around the top 15 in some lists.

Keller looked extremely polished last year. He didn’t look like a guy two years removed from high school. He looked like a college guy picked at the top of the first round, needing only steady improvements as he coasts through the upper levels and eventually makes the majors.

The question now is simple: What is the next step in Mitch Keller’s development after fixing and polishing so much of his game in 2016?

The Encore

Keller pitched 130.1 innings last year in the regular season, not counting his playoff time. He had 47 innings in his previous year and a half in pro ball, not counting time during instructs or extended Spring Training, giving him a big boost in his workload.

Despite the boost in innings, the Pirates didn’t have him making any major adjustments to his offseason. He took two months off for rest, then started working to build up his arm. He did work on mobility through stretching. It wasn’t yoga, but was basic movements and programs that showed what areas of his body needed to improve.

As for on-field improvements, the big focus was on continuing the improvement of his changeup, and improving his extension side fastball.

“It’s a huge pitch for me and my development,” Keller said of the extension fastball. “One day when I’m in Pittsburgh, when I want to be there, I’ve got to make that pitch if I want to stay there. It’s a huge one. I’m just trying to nail it now so we don’t have to worry about it the next year or so. That and just secondary stuff. Commanding the curveball, throwing it in the zone or out of the zone when I want to.”

If you watched Keller at all last year, especially in the second half, you’d be surprised that fastball command would be a focus. He went with an extreme fastball heavy approach, using the fastball exclusively in most starts until the fourth inning. Opposing hitters in Low-A couldn’t touch the pitch due to Keller’s ability to command the 94-97 (touching 99) MPH pitch all over the zone, and place the pitch where he wanted it. He only used his off-speed stuff to get the pitches work, and not so much because he needed those pitches to get outs.

When he moved up to Bradenton he had more of a need for the off-speed pitches, but still was going two or three innings with almost all fastballs, and showing little problem with the hitters at the new level. But Keller won’t have it so easy as he moves up to the higher levels and the majors, which leads to the need for fine tuning some of his skills.

“Arm side fastballs were pretty easy,” Keller said. “I wouldn’t say easy, but I can hit that pitch a lot more than I can nail the extension side. So it’s just a bigger focus for me, just to get inside, especially to a lefty. It’s a big pitch.”

Keller didn’t have many issues against lefties this past year, allowing a .456 OPS in 227 plate appearances against left-handed hitters. But he’s working on the extension fastball and the changeup. The latter is just a continuation of the work he put in last year. He switched to a new four seam grip, moving away from his two-seam grip that he said “wasn’t any good.” The new one gives him more confidence because the grip matches his fastball.

“It definitely still needs work, but I feel a lot more comfortable from last year,” Keller said of the changeup. “At the start in Charleston, I had a changeup, but it wasn’t very good. From where I am now, I feel like I am light years ahead of where I was last season. I feel really good about the changeup.”

Working on the changeup and fastball command aren’t really new things. They are two areas were Keller improved upon in 2016, leading to his breakout season. He’s not Major League ready in either case, so further improvements will be needed. That’s just normal development, and not an overhaul in either case.

“There’s going to be incremental gains at this point in command, command of his off-speed pitches, and how to read swings, changeup development,” said Larry Broadway, the Pirates’ Director of Minor League Operations. “But for the most part, there’s a lot of polish there for the age and the experience. He did a tremendous job just kind of taking care of his body the offseason before, and came in, in 2016, just ready to do it. It’s what we had drafted him for, and believed was in there.”

This raises the question again: What is the next step in Mitch Keller’s development?

“They said just keep doing what I’ve been doing, and nailing the stuff that they were giving me during the season,” Keller said. “I really did that in the offseason. That’s really all they gave me. Just work on the secondary stuff so we can command that in the zone right off the bat.”

We could stop there, and go with the simple “Just keep doing what you are doing” answer, and that would be the end of this article. But there’s one key difference between what Keller was doing last year and what he’s doing this year. The spotlight is much, much bigger on him this year, due to all of the top prospect attention. Managing that attention might be the next big step for Keller.

Life as a Top Prospect

Keller wasn’t exactly an unknown last year, but he did fly under the radar a bit. He wasn’t a top 100 prospect before the season, and didn’t draw any consideration for the pre-season lists. His breakout season put him as one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Now he’s going to have to follow that up and continue developing after an offseason where he ended up on every top prospect list, and ended up as a consensus top four prospect in the system.

“A big thing for him to think about this year is managing expectations,” Broadway said. “Getting thrown into the map, up the prospect lists, all the hype, everything else, can be a distraction, pressure. The conversations we’ve had has been to be aware of that, be cognizant of that, and not try to do too much.”

Keller is used to having a big spotlight on him. He was the best pitcher in high school when he was back at home in Iowa, and got a lot of looks in an area where not many kids got drafted. He said that the current attention feels similar, but on a larger stage.

“It’s kind of cool to think about, but just push it off to the side,” Keller said. “I’m not there yet, so I can’t really get complacent on it. I want to be the best.”

The Pirates have had a few guys go through the process of being a young pitcher in the lower levels who is one of the top prospects in baseball. Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow were both in Keller’s shoes, and both have talked with Keller since he’s been in the system. They both had advice that they could offer Keller on the experience.

On Dealing With the New Top Prospect Hype

Taillon: “One thing for me over the years is that, at first it was really cool to see my name on those lists. At a certain point, I got sick of it and I got over it. Being a prospect just means you could be something one day. I’m ready to be that something. I want to show people what I can be. Don’t get complacent with seeing your name on stuff. It’s cool, it’s cool for your family. I thought for so many years I saw on those lists I’ve got a 40 changeup. I think I’ve got a 60 changeup, but these guys have never seen me pitch and they’re throwing numbers on me. I think sometimes you start to believe that. If they tell him he has 50 command, screw that man. You’ve got 70 command. Don’t buy into it.”

Glasnow: “I think after the Low-A season when I was younger, I thought it was pretty awesome just because I was in the fifth round, I struggled a little bit when I first got to pro ball, and I put in a ton of work and it was just cool to see it all pay off. After awhile, I still appreciated it. People thinking I’m that caliber of pitcher is great, obviously. But I think it’s one of those things you put it in your rear view. You want to go out and compete, and you don’t want to get all caught up in that stuff. I’ve said this before, but my main goal is to get off it and get up in the big leagues. … All of that external stuff is just noise. You’ve got to focus on what you’ve got to do, and everything else will fall into place.”

Keller relates a bit more to Glasnow in terms of the development path, since Taillon was already a top prospect when he was drafted. Glasnow said that he’s had a lot of conversations with Keller, and that he doesn’t think the young right-hander will have issues with the prospect status, due to being a “super bright kid” and an “extremely good pitcher.”

“I don’t think he’s going to be on the list much longer,” Glasnow said. “I think he’s going to be one of those guys who gets to the big leagues pretty soon. That’s another guy that all of us would love to have on their team. He’s a good dude and a really good pitcher, and just a guy that’s going to help the team a lot.”

Taillon has known Keller since right after the 2014 draft when Keller entered the system. Taillon was at Pirate City rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and Keller was making his pro debut in the GCL. Taillon said that he’s made an effort to get to know Keller over the years.

“I’ve liked him since we drafted him,” Taillon said. “I think I met him the first time shortly after the draft. I was in the training room, rehabbing. I think we all saw something in him that was pretty special. He’s a fiery kid. He’s a rare talent. Mix that with how competitive he is. Plays a little angry, is what we like to call it, with guys like that who have something to prove and look to go out there and compete and get on somebody.”

Taillon saw Keller again in a different setting last year, when Keller came up to Pittsburgh to receive his Pitcher of the Year award from the Pirates. At that point, Taillon was in the majors and had one simple bit of advice for Keller.

“I just told him this is where he should be,” Taillon said. “This is what he’s working for. I’m always here for him. He’s got my number.”

The Pirates have a good system set up where the guys at the MLB level show interest in the guys on the way from the minors. The very first week of camp, I was asked by Tony Watson for my thoughts on Keller and how he looked last year, with Watson showing additional interest because Keller was a fellow Iowan. And as seen with Taillon and Glasnow, things go beyond interest to the point where the big leaguers reach out and help guide the prospects, making the eventual transition to the majors a seamless one.

“It’s a great group of guys,” Keller said. “I can’t wait to join them up there. They really reached out to me, and have been talking to me, and making me feel like I’m one of them already. When, and if I do get up there, it will be a smooth transition. It will be a lot of fun with [Taillon and Glasnow].”

Another Step Forward in 2017?

Keller’s work on the field mostly revolves around a continuation of his progress from last year. He needs to continue improving the changeup, improving the fastball command, improving the command of his curveball, all while ignoring the new hype surrounding him. At this point, he seems like a polished guy for the lower levels, capable of moving through the system at a fast pace. If that would happen, it would include spending part of the 2017 season in Altoona, which Keller said could be a possibility.

“Just basically how I do,” Keller said. “If I’m performing well, then they say I’ve got a shot to go up. It’s basically up to me. How I perform and how I handle myself. If I’m doing well, then I’ll get the opportunity. So I’m looking forward to that.”

Broadway said that Keller could go up, and that it all depends on how he responds physically from the innings last year, and how he continues to grow and mature on the mound. The following is a long quote, but a really good explanation as to what goes into the Pirates’ approach at developing and promoting pitchers, which has been criticized for being slow.

“I think the focus always for us when we talk about moving guys is are they ready for the challenges that they’re going to face at the next level?” Broadway said. “Not necessarily are they going to have success right away, but are they going to get stretched to the point and be able to respond well to the challenge of the next level? And when we’re talking about pitchers, it’s really about building workload, especially going from high school where you can log 50 innings a year, and then you’ve got to progress that to where we want guys to throw 200 innings a year in the big leagues. Some of that has a factor of why we aren’t super aggressive as we move guys, especially high school pitchers, just because of that workload and just needing to build that up. It was his second full season, and he got to High-A. I think at this point, we’ve got some workload over the last couple of years, and a good foundation there. We’ll kind of continue to play it by ear and see how it goes.”

While that is a good explanation for how the Pirates handle most pitchers, it’s important to remember that Keller already bucked the trend with their development process. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.

Or, let’s put this another way. I usually book my trip to see Altoona early in the season. This year I am saving that trip until June or July for two reasons: Maximizing my chances of seeing Keller in Bradenton and most likely seeing Keller in Altoona after his expected promotion. It might not be guaranteed, but I feel strongly enough about his development that it seems a mid-season promotion would be likely to happen.

So what is the next step in Mitch Keller’s development?

My prediction, based on seeing how well he’s handled his progress so far, is that he will continue taking steps forward like he did last year, have very little issue with High-A hitters, and maybe start to face a challenge in Altoona, or at least a lineup that will get him using off-speed stuff in the first two innings. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he emerges as one of the top prospects in the game by this time next year, with next year’s article talking about the possibility of seeing Keller in the majors sooner, rather than later.

Extra Innings is a new weekly feature on Pirates Prospects, taking a deep dive into one topic. The article is much longer than our normal articles, fueled by many interviews, the history of our live coverage, and multimedia when available or necessary. The feature will run every Sunday.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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