PITTSBURGH — When Gerrit Cole gave up five runs in the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox in his first outing of the season, the focus quickly fell to the shift that the Pirates used against light-hitting Red Sox catcher Sandy Leon.
The focus was on the shift, and Cole’s reaction to the outcome after Leon bunted for a base hit. Cole then allowed four more runs on a single and a three-run home run.
Cole was upset and visibly so. That doesn’t mean it affected his next pitching sequence. But five days later, it was certainly still on Cole’s mind. Before his next start against the Atlanta Braves, Cole, catcher Chris Stewart and infield coach Joey Cora were still talking about that play and whether or not any of the Braves hitters were a threat to do the same thing Leon had done. Manager Clint Hurdle said that’s not uncommon for Cole, as he’s one of the more cerebral pitchers he’s been around.
“I freshen up every starter either the next day or two days after their start. I ask them for some ups and I ask them for some points that they find challenging,” Hurdle said. “His ability to recall sequences and pitches and the reasons after the game are as good as anybody I’ve ever come across in all the years I’ve been involved in ball. It jumps out at you.”
Furthermore, Hurdle said that Cole is an “honest self-evaluator” when it comes to finding the faults in his game. So is Cole right to be concerned about whether or not players have started adjusting to the shift? General manager Neal Huntington doesn’t think so, but says it’s something they continue to monitor.
“We’ve also seen a lot of hitters give us a free strike because they try to do something they’re not confident or comfortable doing and bunt a ball foul, or they take a strike, or they bunt a ball back to the pitcher because it’s not their strength,” Huntington said. “Their strength is ingrained over them for years of hitting the same way. But there are guys who are now making a concerted effort, and that is one of the things we’ll continue to evaluate is that nobody on, nobody out situation with someone who is not going to beat you with one swing of the bat. Maybe we are less aggressive.”
As far as Cole’s mental fitness on the mound, he showed on Sunday that he has no problem rebounding from a setback. His first inning was disastrous, as he gave up a home run to Dansby Swanson, several other hard-hit balls and conceded a 2-0 lead in the opening frame.
But Cole bounced back to pitch six innings while only giving up one more run. That came on a Freddie Freeman solo homer and Cole never had multiple men on base again until the sixth, when he stranded men on second and third with a weak grounder and a strikeout.
Cole’s 98th pitch of the outing came in at 98 mph and his fastball is sitting right about if not slightly above, his career average in velocity and whiff rate. He said his slider feels about as good as it ever has. So what is the reason for Cole’s 6.55 ERA through two starts?
Most of it has to do with his astronomic home run to fly ball rate. On average, most major league pitchers have a fly ball leave the park 10 percent of the time.
Over a pitchers’ career, HR/FB will typically normalize in accordance with their talent level. Cole has had a 7.7 percent HR/FB rate through his career and although he hasn’t had a large enough sample to establish that as his true talent level, it should provide a decent starting point to judge this season.
In his two 2017 starts, 25 percent of Cole’s fly balls have gone for home runs. Is there somewhat that he’s doing that’s lead to significantly more home runs being hit against him? Possibly, but the much more logical explanation, as with most things in April, is that it’s a small sample size that will normalize as the season goes on.
As with all pitchers, the most effective way for Cole to limit the number of home runs hit is to limit the number of fly balls hit, and on that front, he’s doing well. His 50 percent ground ball rate through two starts would go down as a career high if it holds up.
With small sample sizes, it’s difficult to tease out meaningful information. But the difference between the three home runs Cole gave up and the one he would have given up with a normalized HR/FB rate is pretty significant. If it’s a trend that continues, it could be something that merits further research at that time.
