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The Important Next Step in Mitch Keller’s Development

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BRADENTON, Fla. – The start to Mitch Keller’s 2017 season hasn’t gone as well as his 2016 breakout season went. Through his first three starts, Keller has a 5.02 ERA in 14.1 innings. Most of that is inflated by a bad first outing where he gave up five runs in 2.1 innings of work. He combined for three earned runs in 12 innings his next two starts. But even in the good outings, Keller shows that he still has things to work on.

Last year, Keller drew a lot of attention not only for his stats, but how he was getting them. While in West Virginia, he was pitching almost exclusively with his fastball the first few innings. Due to his ability to move the pitch around in the zone with good command and 94-97 MPH velocity, he was able to dominate without using secondary pitches. When he moved up to Bradenton, he took the same approach, and while he had to make a switch to the off-speed stuff earlier, it still worked.

The first few games of this season have shown Keller that he’s going to have to adjust this approach, as opposing hitters are catching on. This happened in his last start. He threw 30 straight fastballs to start the game, including all fastballs in the first and second innings. He was sitting 95-98, touching 99 a few times in those innings, making the fastball deadly. But then the third inning started with a first pitch home run, with the opposing hitter sitting on his fastball.

“You look at my stuff, everyone knows I throw strikes,” Keller said. “So they’re getting ready for it. They’re scouting me like we scout their hitters. Going to have to start changing up sooner once I see that they’re getting on it and ambushing it like their guy did in the third inning. Tip your hat to him, but I need to change it up sooner.”

Keller acknowledged that he can’t do his West Virginia approach — throwing nothing but fastballs for 3-4 innings — at the current level. He’s noticing that hitters at this level, especially the more experienced guys, are picking up on the fastball, even though the pitch still plays most of the time. Pitching coordinator Justin Meccage was on hand for Keller’s last start, and felt that Keller is facing better hitters this year, who he will have to adjust against.

“I think the approaches are a little bit better here,” Meccage said. “And obviously as they go up, it’s a little bit more improved. I think that’s something he’s going to have to recognize. It just comes from reps. Having a lot of success with the fastball, we’ve dealt with it with a few guys in the organization where they can dominate with their fastball. It’s just a matter of learning how to pitch, trusting your eyes and what you see when guys are on your stuff, how you make an adjustment, whether it may be moving your fastball, pitching in, using your secondary stuff. That’s the next step for him.”

Meccage said that Keller needs to identify when hitters are sitting on the fastball. On Wednesday night, the hitters were putting up some good swings and making hard contact, even though Keller was still getting outs. That is what Keller needs to identify earlier, and adjust by mixing in some off-speed stuff in the first few innings to keep hitters honest.

“Just showing [the off-speed stuff] and keeping them off-balance and keeping it in the back of their mind, that would be huge,” Keller said.

Keller’s off-speed stuff shows promise, although it’s still inconsistent from start to start. That would be expected, since his fastball-heavy approach doesn’t leave a lot of time to develop the other pitches. I’ve been most impressed with the curveball, which he’s done a good job throwing for strikes and using as a strikeout pitch. After hitters started sitting on his fastball, he adjusted to throwing the curveball more often in the next inning and got back on track.

“I feel really comfortable with that right now,” Keller said. “I just want to get the changeup to that level. It’s coming, but I want it to come quicker, obviously.”

The changeup didn’t look as good on Wednesday night, although he’s shown better feel for the pitch in previous starts. Meccage noted that he was throwing a good breaking ball, and that the game plan was to throw more changeups, but that the pitch wasn’t really a factor.

“I think a lot of times out of the hand it was a ball,” Meccage said. “So it wasn’t even an offering by the hitter. I think that’s just a reps thing. Trying to get more and more reps.”

Keller has faced some challenges with the changeup this year in terms of learning when to throw the pitch, and getting a consistent feel for the pitch. He got the feel for the pitch towards the end of the final inning on Wednesday, but that was a few innings too late. In his first start of the year, he gave up a three run homer on a 3-2 changeup in a situation where he probably wouldn’t be best off throwing a changeup, and against a batter who he probably shouldn’t throw a changeup against. But that’s the tricky thing about developing in the minors — you’re looking for development, and not results.

“It’s tough sometimes, but you’ve just got to find counts to do it in,” Keller said. “On that one, his bat was slow, and I wanted to throw it there. It was the best situation to do it, maybe not the count, but first and third, trying to get a double play, get him to roll over. … It sucks giving up home runs, but in the long run you’ve just got to look at getting better. I’m not really too hung up on ERAs. I’m just focused on getting better.”

One thing that Keller really excelled at on Wednesday, and something he’s always done well with, is his fastball command to the outside corner against right-handers. This is a very good two-strike pitch that can get people to either chase, or allow him to place a called third strike just on the outside corner. It’s also an important pitch to throw inside against lefties. I talked with a scout last week who said that Keller throws that fastball better than a lot of MLB pitchers.

“It’s going to be a money pitch for him,” Meccage said. “If he can execute that, that’s what we’re trying to get all of our pitchers to do. Now it’s just when he goes arm side, maintaining that same discipline he has when he goes extension side with his delivery. I think that’s a positive when they’re ahead with that side of the plate.”

Keller didn’t have a lot of issues against lefties last year, mostly because of that extension fastball. He’s starting to have some issues against lefties in the early part of the 2017 season, and while the extension fastball will help in that regard, the changeup will play a bigger role. He continues to dominate right-handers, due to his fastball command and his strong curveball, which is a plus offering when it’s on. Now it’s just a matter of mixing those off-speed pitches in earlier, and preventing hitters from cheating on the fastball.

I still think Keller is the best pitching prospect in the system, and he could be on the fast track to the big leagues, arriving in Altoona during the second half. Before that happens, he may experience some bumps in the road as he learns a little bit more about how to be a pitcher, and how to attack more advanced hitters.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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