BRADENTON, Fla. – In his last three starts, Mitch Keller has combined for 18.2 shutout innings, giving up just eight hits and three walks while striking out 22 batters. He pitched two straight outings with seven shutout innings before his start last night. That outing was heading down a similar path, until Keller was removed in the fifth inning with the announcers saying he was holding his forearm.
The Pirates came out and let him throw a few pitches. He threw to the next batter, throwing a wild pitch and then issuing one of his two walks on the night. He was then pulled from the game, leading to some panic about the combination of a forearm issue and being removed. I got in touch with him after the game, and got the following text, which relieved a lot of fears for Pirates fans:
“I got stung by a bee right on my forearm lol”
With fears of some major injury to the top pitching prospect set aside, we can go back to enjoying the current stretch Keller is on, where the only person who can seemingly stop him is this guy:
Keller didn’t have the best start to the year. In his first four outings he combined to give up a 4.87 ERA in 20.1 innings, with a 16:4 K/BB ratio. It wasn’t the start you’d expect to see from a guy who dominated the South Atlantic League with ease last year, and continued that stretch in his brief time in Bradenton.
I saw his start on April 19th, which wasn’t bad by the numbers, but did show a problem. Keller gave up two earned runs on seven hits in six innings, with no walks and four strikeouts. He was cruising through the opposing lineup with ease the first two innings, but by the third inning they started sitting on his fastball. He eventually made an adjustment, but not before some damage was done.
I talked to Keller after the outing about his approach, and about mixing in more off-speed stuff earlier in the game. Keller was going exclusively with the fastball in the early innings — an approach that worked for him last year — and it led to batters being able to cheat and sit on his fastball. He felt after that start that he needed to be mixing in the off-speed stuff earlier to keep hitters honest.
The next time I saw Keller was on May 5th, when he threw seven shutout innings, giving up two hits, no walks, and striking out nine. It was his second straight outing with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts. The biggest thing was that he was doing exactly what he talked about a few weeks earlier, mixing in the off-speed stuff in the early innings to keep opposing hitters honest.
“I’m just mixing [off-speed pitches] in earlier in counts and earlier in the game. That’s worked out really well for me, keeping them off balanced,” Keller said. “When I mix it in, they’re not sitting on the fastball anymore. They have doubt in their mind that they don’t know what’s coming. That gears up the fastball, because the velocity is there, and when I throw off-speed, they have to chase a lot.”
Keller really noticed the change in the adjustment in his April 30th start. He threw seven shutout innings that night, with five hits, one walk, and nine strikeouts. The start came against Port Charlotte, a team that tagged him for five runs on five hits in 2.1 innings in his first start of the year.
“They kicked my ass the first game. I was just throwing heaters to them and they were sitting on it,” Keller said. “Once they saw I was mixing in off-speed [in the second start], it messed them up and got them off balanced.”
You might ask yourself why Keller wasn’t taking this approach earlier. He was throwing his fastball exclusively in the past until opposing hitters showed they could hit the pitch. That never happened, leading to a fastball-exclusive approach for 3-4 innings in some outings. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, consistently hitting 96-98 in the early innings, and staying around 96-97 late. He also has good command of the pitch, able to locate it all over the zone, and doing an outstanding job of hitting the outside corner for a strike against right-handers.
Even when advanced hitters were sitting on the fastball, they could only do so much damage. That April 19th start was an example. Opposing hitters knew that the pitch was coming, but could only manage two runs in six innings of work.
Most pitchers with a fastball this good will pitch off the fastball as Keller does. They just need to learn when to start mixing in the off-speed stuff, and how often to use that off-speed stuff so as to avoid doing opposing hitters a favor. Keller is now learning this, and in the process, he’s learning more about how to pitch.
“We like Keller’s adjustments that he’s made,” Bradenton manager Gera Alvarez said. “Early on, the beginning of the year, a couple of rough outings because he was throwing a lot of fastballs. Now you see him pitch, he’s got good mixed numbers with off-speed, it makes his fastball tougher, and obviously that kind of velocity makes it tough for a hitter.”
I’m not surprised that Keller made this adjustment. His curveball is a good pitch, looking like a plus offering at times. His changeup continues to develop, and he’s now throwing it more often to try and continue getting more comfortable with how to use the pitch. His off-speed stuff isn’t anything to shy away from.
What I am surprised about is that Keller made the adjustment so quickly, and it has worked so well for him. Maybe I shouldn’t be that surprised though, considering his history. A big reason for his breakout last year was a small adjustment he made with his glove arm, keeping it elevated and firm above the belt during his delivery, avoiding unnecessary extra movement that was throwing off his command. That change was implemented very quickly, and led to some strong results. So it’s not a big surprise to see him make an adjustment as simple as throwing his off-speed stuff earlier, or to make it so quickly.
The Pirates have been handling Keller more like they would a first rounder out of college than a guy who was drafted outside of the first round as a prep pitcher. For that reason, I’ve felt all year that Keller will eventually move up to Altoona this season. If the latest adjustment continues going this well, he’s not going to have much to prove in the Florida State League, and could be making that jump to Double-A by the middle of the season.
