The 2012 season was a frustrating time to cover the Pirates, and their prospects. At the big league level, the team was contending in July, then saw an epic collapse in the final two months, sending them to their 20th straight losing season. In the minors, they were starting to build a strong farm system, four years after inheriting one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
The problem there was that the Pirates lost at the big league level in horrible fashion. And when the Pirates lose at the big league level, it’s not just alright to say that the big league team had problems. You had to say that the entire organization was in trouble.
So that’s what happened. The collapse of the Pirates at the big league level got a few amendments when discussing the problem.
“There is no one in the farm system either!”
“The front office doesn’t know what they’re doing, and they need to be fired!”
“Oh my god! They’re doing Navy Seal training that literally happens in every other sport!”
Now I don’t want to say that the complaints were unfounded. They were just exaggerated. But there were legit reasons to have concern at the time.
The farm system had a lot of promise, but most of the promise came in the lower levels. West Virginia had a group of breakout players, which eventually led to Gregory Polanco, Jose Osuna, Elias Diaz, and a combo that never reached their upside in Willy Garcia and Alen Hanson. Tyler Glasnow was starting to show some promise that year, and while he hasn’t come close to his upside, he’s still just 23 years old. Jameson Taillon was going through the bumps and bruises in the lower levels, working through the mechanical changes I’ve documented for years (there’s an interesting note about how Taillon that year changed our site coverage for the better, but I’ll save that for another time).
The farm system did have promise, but it also had a lot of projection. There were no guarantees that the guys in the low levels would reach the majors, and guys in the upper levels like Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Justin Wilson, and Jeff Locke had yet to make the successful jump. Even as outlets like Baseball America provided an outside view that confirmed inside praises for the farm system, you can see how there would still be concerns with so much projection involved in the system at the time.
The front office got credit for taking the Pirates from the worst team in baseball with the worst farm system to a team that was legitimately on the verge of contending, with a farm system that was now one of the best in baseball, and only increasing in value. But there were legit questions about whether they could take the next step and turn that near-.500 club into a contender. I wrote that offseason that they needed one more year to prove themselves. If they didn’t make the jump, then the Pirates needed to find someone else. Others wanted to find someone else that offseason. Either way, no one was certain whether they would be able to make that successful jump to real contenders that we saw starting in 2013.
As for the Navy Seal stuff, well, there’s really no legit reason for the outrage over that. It was a joke then, and it’s even more of a joke now when you look at how many organizations have used that training, not to mention the rise in popularity of programs like Crossfit has regular people doing more intense exercises than the Pirates were doing. If the Navy Seal stuff came out after the 2015 season, you’d have every MLB organization trying it.
So why am I talking about the 2012 season? Because I’m noticing a lot of similarities in terms of the feel of the 2017 season compared to 2012.
A Rebuilding Farm System
First, you’ve got the farm system. The Pirates have been downgraded from a top ten farm system to a middle of the pack system. I leave the farm system comparisons up to places like Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, since they track the other 29 clubs. And I don’t disagree with the idea that the Pirates are now middle of the pack. That will happen when you graduate all of the prospects they’ve graduated over the last two years (Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Jose Osuna, Trevor Williams, and so on).
Baseball America had this to say about ranking the Pirates 14th:
The skinny: Graduations have thinned the system, but Mitch Keller is still a great No. 1 prospect.
It’s not much analysis, but it’s true. They dropped because of all of the players they graduated. That’s not a bad thing, as those players are still in the organization, just not counting toward the prospect rankings. They still have a great number one prospect, and I’d say a great number two in Austin Meadows. But what about the rest of the system?
I’m seeing the same thing I saw in 2012. The current system has a lot of high upside guys in the lower levels. You’ve got guys like Gage Hinsz and Taylor Hearn in Bradenton, both sitting mid-90s with their fastballs. I wouldn’t classify Ke’Bryan Hayes, Will Craig, and Stephen Alemais as high upside, but you’ve got three guys there with paths to being starters in the big leagues.
West Virginia has been home to some of the biggest breakout players in the past, although they don’t have that this year. They do have some interesting guys at the level. Luis Escobar sits mid-90s with his fastball and touches upper-90s. Eduardo Vera and Oddy Nunez both saw velocity increases this year, along with improvements to their overall stuff. The right-handed Vera has been hitting 97, while the left-handed Nunez has been hitting 94.
On the hitting side, Adrian Valerio is a guy who I would classify as high upside, and he might be coming into his own this year. I haven’t seen recently acquired Oneil Cruz yet, but the reviews I’ve gotten on him so far have been very high praise, especially when focused on his raw power. I’m also seeing some positive things from Yoel Gonzalez in my current trip, although it’s a small sample size.
Most of the high upside guys come at the lowest levels. The Pirates went heavy on prep pitchers during the 2016 draft, and heavy on prep players in general in 2017. For that reason, the Bristol and GCL rosters look very promising.
The prep pitchers in 2016 have led to Braeden Ogle, Max Kranick, Travis MacGregor, and Austin Shields. With the exception of Shields, who is in the GCL, I expect to see these guys next week in Bristol. However, what I’ve seen so far has been promising. Add in some interesting guys from the 2017 draft like Alex Manasa and Hunter Stratton, and this Bristol team has some quality arms. I can’t say the same about their hitters.
The GCL team has first round pick Shane Baz, along with other prep pitchers like Steven Jennings, Cody Bolton, and Jacob Webb. They’ve got second round outfielders Calvin Mitchell and Conner Uselton, along with 17th round surprise Mason Martin.
Adding to all of the draft picks are a wave of promising international players. Edison Lantigua might be the only legit hitting prospect in Bristol. Lefty pitcher Domingo Robles adds to the group of quality arms at that level. In the GCL, Lolo Sanchez is quickly emerging as one of the most promising and electric players on the team. Jeremias Portorreal continues to show his power potential with his big frame. I’ve also been really impressed with shortstop Rodolfo Castro. And I’m not going to get into DSL guys until they enter the US.
The current system has a large group of talented prospects in the lower levels. In a few years, that should lead to another group of talented players in the upper levels, just based on the sheer number of prospects we’re talking about at the low levels. I see this group much like I saw the 2012 group, with a lot of potential for the future. However, since most of the potential is raw and at the lower levels, that won’t translate to top prospects right now, and won’t translate to a top farm system. Still, the Pirates have what they need to rebuild their farm system after the recent graduates dropped them down.
A Team on the Verge of Contending
The more obvious comparison for the Pirates between 2017 and 2012 is how close they are to contending. They were technically contenders in 2012, although they weren’t strong contenders, and certainly not as strong as they were in 2013 or 2015. They are technically contenders this year, but again, they’re not strong contenders. If the Cubs were having the season everyone expected from them, we wouldn’t even be talking about the Pirates as contenders right now.
At the same time, this team looks like they could be on the rise, rather than on the decline. That’s hard to see in a situation like this, just as it was hard to imagine in 2012. This team is young, with every single starting pitcher and starting position player under control through at least the 2018 season, and many beyond that. We’re still likely to see improvements from many of the young players on the roster, and we may already be seeing that this year, with guys like Gregory Polanco and Chad Kuhl stepping up over the last few months.
The Pirates made some key additions in the 2012-13 offseason, adding Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, and Mark Melancon. I’ve written recently about how this team needs to pick a direction and go for it. They either need to do a complete sell and reload to be a much stronger team down the line, or they need to seriously add to this team, trading away some of their prospect depth, while also spending that money they saved from Starling Marte, Jung Ho Kang, and Jared Hughes this year.
I would choose the latter. I think this organization is set up in a way where they could go for it now, then reload with all of those prospects in the lower levels in a few years. This team is already on the edge of being a strong contender again, and I think the right moves this offseason could get them there in 2018.
But going back to 2012, there were questions about whether this front office could make the jump to being real contenders the following year. I think there are similar questions now. The game has changed, and with all of the mega teams around the league, it’s more difficult now to join that group of strong contenders. So the question is whether Neal Huntington can continue to adapt and make the next jump, and make the right calls with the team at a crossroads.
I don’t think we’ve seen evidence either way that he can’t make that jump, since it’s a new situation. That’s much like my stance in 2012 about getting the team over the hump to being actual contenders. At this point, he’s earned the chance to try and make it happen.
A Repeat of 2012?
The Pirates aren’t technically out of it in 2017, although they have a very uphill climb. Right now they need to complete a sweep of the Padres, paired with the Brewers and Cubs losing their next two games. Then they need another three game sweep, paired with three game sweeps against the Brewers and Cubs, which would put them in first place. Basically, their hopes lie on a five game winning streak paired with five game losing streaks for the Brewers and Cubs, and then followed up by the same or better record than both teams. It’s possible, but it’s definitely not easy.
That’s going to lead to a lot of angry reactions after the season, and in true fashion, that anger will transfer over to the farm system, with blanket statements about how everything is going wrong in the system. If we’re lucky, we might even get some theatrics on par with the Navy Seals outrage.
But I see this organization very similar to that 2012 group. They’ve got a farm system with a lot of high upside talent in the lower levels, along with a young team in the majors that is a piece or two away from being true contenders. The hope would be that the 2018 season and beyond would turn out as well as it did in 2013 and the years to follow.
