Breaking Down Where the Pirates Fell Short of Projections in Their Losing 2017 Season

The Pirates' outfield fell five wins short of their projections. Photo Credit: David Hague
Breaking Down Where the Pirates Fell Short of Projections in Their Losing 2017 Season

Prior to every season, I do a projection article where I take the ZiPS player projections, adjust them to the expected playing time for every position on the Pirates' roster, and get a total win projection.

That projection tends to be more optimistic than any other pre-season projection. From 2013-2015, the Pirates actually out-performed my projection article. The last two years, they fell short.

The best part of the article is that we can look back and see where the Pirates exceeded their projections, or where they fell short. The 2013-2015 articles were all about seeing where they exceeded projections, while last year saw almost every single player falling short. This year was similar to last year, with a lot of players struggling to reach their pre-season projections.

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Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

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