Analysis

Breaking Down Where the Pirates Fell Short of Projections in Their Losing 2017 Season

The Pirates' outfield fell five wins short of their projections. Photo Credit: David Hague
Breaking Down Where the Pirates Fell Short of Projections in Their Losing 2017 Season

Prior to every season, I do a projection article where I take the ZiPS player projections, adjust them to the expected playing time for every position on the Pirates' roster, and get a total win projection.

That projection tends to be more optimistic than any other pre-season projection. From 2013-2015, the Pirates actually out-performed my projection article. The last two years, they fell short.

The best part of the article is that we can look back and see where the Pirates exceeded their projections, or where they fell short. The 2013-2015 articles were all about seeing where they exceeded projections, while last year saw almost every single player falling short. This year was similar to last year, with a lot of players struggling to reach their pre-season projections.

I did thi...

To continue reading the rest of this article, subscribe to Pirates Prospects. Subscribers get access to every article on the site, along with all of our exclusive live coverage of the Pirates' minor league system, all for a very low monthly or yearly rate.

If you're already a member, you can log in below. If you think you're receiving this message in error, please e-mail tim@piratesprospects.com.

Analysis

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

More in Analysis

What to Expect For the Pirates in Tomorrow’s Rule 5 Draft

Tim WilliamsDecember 13, 2017

Looking at the Pirates’ 2018 ZiPS Projections to See if They Should Be Buyers or Sellers

Tim WilliamsDecember 12, 2017

Winter Meetings Preview: Will We Find Out the Pirates’ Direction This Week?

Tim WilliamsDecember 10, 2017

John Lantigua Hopes a Healthy 2018 Will Allow Him to Show Off His Potential

John DrekerDecember 9, 2017

Jean Eusebio Gives the Pirates a Possible Breakout Player to Watch in 2018

John DrekerDecember 8, 2017

What Will the Pirates Do With All of Their Starting Pitching Depth in Indianapolis?

Tim WilliamsDecember 7, 2017

Pirates Prospects is an independent media outlet, and is in no way affiliated with the Pittsburgh Pirates, their minor league affiliates, Major League Baseball, or Minor League Baseball.

Copyright © 2017 Pirates Prospects