Today I finished putting together the 2018 40-man payroll page, which will be updated throughout the off-season, and into the regular season. Bookmark that link, as I’ll be updating the chart after every move throughout the off-season. The chart provides an estimate of the year-end 2018 payroll, which will definitely change throughout the off-season.
Right now the estimate is made up of three things. First we have the guaranteed salaries. Next are the projected arbitration increases. Finally there are the projected roster decisions. I didn’t include projected free agent additions, since that’s unpredictable. I mostly stuck with players who were out of options, or who didn’t play a huge role at the end of the season. There are some players who I have projected on the active roster who may end up off the 40-man roster at some point this off-season, but they were league minimum guys, so it didn’t make much of a difference. The non-tender focus was mostly on arbitration eligible guys, since that had a bigger impact on payroll.
There is one key exception to the above. I included Chris Stewart’s option year, despite the fact that the Pirates have Francisco Cervelli under contract, Stewart with an option year, and Elias Diaz out of options. If the Pirates keep Cervelli and Stewart, then the payroll will stay the same, as Diaz will be replaced by another league minimum guy. The payroll will go down if either Cervelli or Stewart are gone.
I projected a 25-man roster when making this payroll chart, although a few spots will change. As an example of this, I have six starters projected on the team, with one of Steven Brault or Trevor Williams going to the bullpen. But if the Pirates add another starter, it will impact things in the offseason, with one of these guys (Brault) being projected for the minors.
The Pirates are currently projected for a $96,785,833 payroll in 2018. A lot can change with that figure. They have a lot of areas where they can make trades to shed salary, while adding a younger player to the mix. Here is a look at the key contract situations heading into the off-season.
THE ROTATION
The Pirates aren’t spending much in their rotation. Ivan Nova is making $8.5 M, and I have Gerrit Cole projected for $6 M in arbitration. The other candidates are making the league minimum. If there’s a move to add a starter, I think it could make sense to trade Nova, as the league minimum guys could replicate his production for a much cheaper cost.
ANDREW MCCUTCHEN
Last offseason saw a lot of trade rumors surrounding McCutchen. I think we could be in for the same this year, depending on which direction the team goes. He’s got a $14.75 M option, which will absolutely be picked up. If they decide to keep him around, then it would make sense to add in other areas and boost the team while he is here. If they trade him, then things could get really creative, with either a rebuild, or a quick reload to try and compete in 2018 with the savings.
THE INFIELD
Most of the spending on the team comes from the infield. Josh Harrison is making $10 M. David Freese is making $4.25 M. I have Jordy Mercer projected for $6 M in his final year of arbitration. That puts Sean Rodriguez on the bench making $5 M. I think something will eventually give here, with Harrison potentially being a trade chip, and being replaced by Rodriguez. The Pirates will also need a third base option who can split time with Freese, as he’s not an everyday player. I don’t think they will find that from their league minimum guys.
IN-SEASON ADDITIONS
The difference between the Opening Day payroll and the final payroll can change depending on how the team does. There’s no way to project all of the in-season moves, whether that comes in the form of trades, waiver claims, or the constant promotions and demotions from Triple-A. In previous years when the Pirates were stronger contenders, the in-season figure has been anywhere from a $6-11 M increase. They dropped in payroll the last two years, due to the trades at the deadline. The estimated number represents the Opening Day projections.
