With the way the offseason is going, it’s almost inevitable that the Pirates will trade Gerrit Cole. The rumors have said they’re motivated sellers who are discussing him with multiple teams. If he is traded, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them follow that move up by trading guys like Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison, and maybe even others like Francisco Cervelli.
I wrote the other day about prospects who the Pirates have in the system who can take over eventually for the traded players. The Pirates have options to eventually replace Cole, McCutchen, and Harrison. That doesn’t include players that could come back in a trade.
But how soon could the Pirates be competitive again? How long would a rebuild take? My feeling is that a Pirates rebuild won’t take long, considering what they have in the system right now.
I had some analysis putting them at 85 wins at the start of the winter meetings, using the ZiPS projections. I don’t think that level makes them strong contenders, but instead puts them where they’ve been the last few years, as a team stuck in No Man’s Land. The biggest problem is that this isn’t really a team you want to build around, since two of the biggest players on the team are Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, and only under control for a year or two. If you could get a future team full of prospects to that 85-win range, then you might have a better shot at contending by adding to the team, especially since that team would be cheaper, with a lot of young, inexpensive prospects on the roster.
Here is a look at how the Pirates could replace the players they might trade in a rebuild, looking at how they can get the same production or better as that ZiPS analysis, getting them back in range of being a contender.
Replacing Cole
The Pirates have their replacement for Cole already in the upper levels. Mitch Keller should make the jump to the majors in the next year or two, and has top of the rotation upside. He is also polished enough that he should be able to make the jump to the majors with an easy transition, similar to Cole and Jameson Taillon.
I could see Keller replacing Cole over a full season by the 2020 season, arriving in the second half of 2019 at the latest. He would provide a nice boost to the rotation in the second half in 2019 if the Pirates are competitive. That would be similar to what happened with Cole in 2013. Otherwise, he would be a key piece toward leading the Pirates to contending in 2020 and beyond.
Replacing Harrison
I’m going to also include Jordy Mercer and the third base position here, since I’ll be talking about a group of infielders. The Pirates might be able to replace Harrison immediately at second base, depending on how well Max Moroff adjusts to the majors, and whether he can be a starter. Harrison has been around a league average second baseman at best, so it’s not that he’d be extremely difficult to replace. He had a 5 WAR season in 2014, had two seasons with a 1.3 WAR average and a lot of injuries, and rebounded with a 2.6 WAR this past year. I think that’s his talent level, and that would be the target to replace if the Pirates want to contend.
Mercer has been at best a 2 WAR player, but this past year was a 1.4 WAR player, ranking just below average. That’s the level the Pirates would need to match or beat to be competitive.
As for third base, the Pirates don’t really have a starting third baseman, and would need average production in order to be competitive.
Moroff could take over at second base right away. If he doesn’t work out, Kevin Kramer could arrive at some point in 2018, and should be ready for the full season in 2019. One of those two could replace Harrison at second, since they both have the potential for offense, and both provide good defense at the spot.
Kevin Newman should be able to replace Mercer at shortstop, providing average production. That should happen in the middle of the 2018 season, with Newman playing the full year in 2019. I could then see Cole Tucker taking over for Newman, possibly in mid-2019 or in 2020, which could push Newman over to the second base competition, or provide the Pirates with some trade depth if they already have a good second baseman.
The third base position really only has one option, and that is Ke’Bryan Hayes. He should start in Altoona in 2018, and wouldn’t arrive until mid-2019 at the earliest. A more conservative approach would have him arriving in mid-2020, taking over for the full season in 2021. His strong defense, plus the ability to hit for average and get on base, should give the Pirates at least an average starter. They might need one of the other infielders to step over to the position until he arrives, or find someone from the outside.
The Pirates could find league average production at the second base, shortstop, and third base positions from their prospects. The middle infield could be ready by the middle of the 2018 season. Third base would be the big issue in the short-term, with Hayes arriving in 2020 under a conservative path. That means the Pirates might need an extra middle infielder to work out and take over at third until Hayes arrives.
Replacing McCutchen
This is the most important area to find a replacement. It’s not that McCutchen is an impact player anymore. He was projected for around 3 WAR in the latest ZiPS projections, which seems right if you consider his inconsistent performance and declining skills in recent years.
I’m not going to say that the Pirates need to replace the MVP McCutchen in order to contend, although I think they need that replacement if they want to have a chance to contend for a division. But in order to contend for a Wild Card, they will need to replace at least that 3 WAR production, or more.
They have Austin Meadows in the minors, with the chance to arrive in the middle of the 2018 season. He comes with the disclaimer that he’s been injury prone, which could impact his arrival, his upside, and how often he can produce for the team. Keep in mind though, Meadows has impact upside, and putting him at a 3 WAR player is already downgrading his potential upside due to the injury concerns. Therefore, I wouldn’t further downgrade him, unless you are expecting extreme injury issues.
The Pirates have also discussed Clint Frazier with the Yankees in exchange for Cole. That could give them another option for the outfield, and another chance at a 3+ WAR player.
It’s not a bad thing for the Pirates to have average players at those infield spots. It just means they need impact in the outfield. That makes this position important to get an impact player, or at least a guy who can put up at least a 3 WAR. They could get that with either Meadows or Frazier, but could really use someone to be an impact guy.
Where to Spend and Add
The Pirates aren’t really projected to get much from Francisco Cervelli. They’d see a downgrade to Elias Diaz, but it wouldn’t be a significant blow to the team’s chances. They would need to find a starting catcher eventually. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to use the 2018 season to see if Diaz can adjust to the majors. After that, if the situation doesn’t go well, they would need to start looking at the outside for catching help.
They would also need to spend at third base if they wanted to contend before 2020 or 2021, unless Hayes is ready to arrive earlier, or unless they get good production from their middle infield group.
They have plenty of rotation depth in the minors, and have Taillon and Keller as top of the rotation guys to lead the group. But they project to be a team that is led by pitching and defense, and weak on hitting, which means they could afford to upgrade their strength. They had success in the past with reclamation projects, and could use another to give them a shot at another top of the rotation type pitcher.
The Pirates will have prospects to fill almost all of their spots in the future, with a chance to return to being competitive in 2020, and maybe 2019 if all goes well. They’ll need some upgrades to the team, but the upgrades would only be needed once they’re contenders.
One issue here is that if the Pirates aren’t competitive until 2020, then it might make sense to trade Starling Marte and/or Felipe Rivero in a rebuild. If they have a shot at being competitive in 2019, then it would make sense to keep both, as they’d both be under control for three more seasons, starting with 2019. That’s a topic I’ll go over in a future article.
