30.2 F
Pittsburgh

Keith Law Has Mitch Keller Among His Top 20 Prospects

Published:

On Monday morning, Keith Law released the second half of his top 100 list, covering prospects 51-100. He had three Pittsburgh Pirates on that list, ranking Ke’Bryan Hayes, Shane Baz and Austin Meadows all in the 61-70 range. Law posted the top half of his list on Tuesday morning and he has Mitch Keller as the 18th best prospect in the game.

It’s interesting to note that Keller ranked 16th at this time last year for Law, then moved up to 12th when Law updated his list in April. Law also did a mid-season update in the middle of July and he had Keller as the tenth best prospect. Since that point, he moved up to Double-A and pitched well, including his one-hit shutout in Altoona’s playoff opener, followed by 7.1 strong innings in the title-winning game. Keller then went to the Arizona Fall League, where he pitched well and was named the league’s top pitching prospect. So it’s odd that his slow climb upward in the rankings now results in him dropping eight spots after pitching well at a higher level.

That ranking might be explained by what Law didn’t see late in the season from Keller, or he did see it and just disagrees with what everyone else saw. We mentioned here that he went to a new changeup grip late in the year. After a brief feeling out process with the new grip, Keller began to have a lot of success with the pitch, especially in the playoffs. Not only was he getting swing-and-misses with the pitch, the movement on it made it a good ground ball pitch when batters were making contact. He continued to work on the pitch in the Fall Instructional League and the AFL with positive results.

The article linked above has quotes from both Justin Meccage and Larry Broadway about his success with the new grip and why it is important for Keller. Law knocks Keller for the lack of a quality third pitch. It’s possible he didn’t get late season reports, which were different from those in July and earlier.

Law also mentions the back injury Keller suffered last year as something to watch, though he already returned from that injury when Law did the mid-season update. That’s another thing where the proper information may change things. Law said that it was his second back injury that caused him to miss time, with the 2015 injury being more serious. Keller actually had minor forearm tightness in 2015, which caused the Pirates to take a cautious approach and shut him down, then build him back up slowly. The timing of the injury caused him to miss the start of the 2015 season, though he pitched for three months down at Pirate City prior to it, and then again in the Fall Instructional League after the season, so there is a lot you don’t see on paper from 2015. The important thing is that in 2 1/2 years since then, that minor issue has not resurfaced.

There was actually another knock on Keller and that was his command not being up to par with his control. That was one of the things he was working on in the AFL (and before obviously) and I don’t think it’s as bad as Law does, even before the late season work.

Anyway, here is what Law said, which explains why he has him ranked 18th:

“Keller has the two plus pitches and control to be a No. 1 or 2 starter, but at the moment he’s more of a No. 4 because of the lack of a third pitch and the gap between his control and his command.”

Baseball America had Keller 12th overall yesterday, while MLB Pipeline will post their top 100 on Saturday night.

John Dreker
John Dreker
John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball. When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

Related Articles

Latest Articles