After making three giant trades, including trading the face of the franchise and a former first overall draft pick, the Pirates’ 2018 offseason has basically been a wash.
That’s the conclusion that Tim Williams came to on Sunday, when he made an analysis of the ZiPS projections and the way they’ve changed after the Pirates’ trades of Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, and the acquisition of Corey Dickerson. Tim concluded that the Pirates are basically one win worse than they were when they started revamping the roster.
But they might be better off.
Projections are volatile. Last season, the Pirates were projected to get six WAR from Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang. They got 1.2. Things like injury, suspension and illness can come from anywhere, happen to anyone, and throw a huge wrench in any team’s plans.
But on the other side of the coin, there are ways that teams can beat projections. The Pirates should know. They’ve been one of them.
In 2013, the Pirates were projected by PECOTA to finish 77-85. They went 94-68. In 2014, they were projected to go 78-84. They went 88-74. In 2015, PECOTA projected the Pirates to go 80-82, and they won 98 games, tied for the franchise’s most since 1909.
Of course, you might have known that already. If you did, it’s probably because Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has been talking about it all offseason. His view is that the Pirates, currently projected at 78-84 by PECOTA, are capable of having another year where they beat their projections and finish in the postseason.
“As we looked at that ’13 club, the addition of Russ Martin, the addition of Liriano, those guys had big years for us,” Huntington said to Pirates Prospects. “Then, the next year it was (Edinson) Volquez and adding J.A. Happ at the midpoint in 2015. Those guys were targeted for reasons. We targeted young players stepping forward, as they have in the past. You’re looking for guys that can overshoot their projections and why you think they can overshoot their projections and at what part are the projections liked and why are the projections liked and understanding that.”
What Huntington is saying, in not so many words, is that in order for the team to beat its projection, some players are going to have to beat their individual projections. In that regard, having a veteran team of established performers gives a team less of a chance of out-performing its projection than a team full of young players and bounce-back candidates.
Last year, PECOTA projected the Pirates for 81 wins while predicting 76 for the Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates finished with 75, while the Brewers had 86 and were in the hunt for the postseason until the final week of the season.
The Brewers featured eight players that were worth 2.0 fWAR or more. Every single one of them set a career-high mark. Travis Shaw was worth 3.4 WAR after two years at 1.6 with the Red Sox. Domingo Santana had 3.3 WAR after being a negative player the year before. Eric Thames came back from Korea to provide 2.1 WAR. Manny Pina had 2.0 WAR in a breakout season at age 30.
On the pitching side, Jimmy Nelson (4.9 WAR) more than doubled his previous career high, and Chase Anderson (3.3 WAR) got close. Reliever Corey Knebel had 2.8 WAR after totaling 0.5 in his first two full seasons.
That’s the kind of surge it takes to beat a projection the kind of meaningful way that it would take for this Pirates team to end up in the postseason. One of the common threads the Brewers players had was age. Anderson, Pina, and Thames broke out at 30 after pedestrian early careers. Davies, Knebel, Nelson, Santana, and Shaw were all in their mid-to-late 20s.
By exchanging Cole (27), Daniel Hudson (30) and McCutchen (31) for Dickerson (28), Kyle Crick (25), Michael Feliz (24), Colin Moran (25) and Joe Musgrove (25), the Pirates got younger and added players that have the capability to outpace their projections.
If the power Moran added in Triple-A in 2017 can stick without hurting his batting average, he’ll likely outstrip his projected 1.4 WAR. If Musgrove stays a starting pitcher all season, he’ll be able to do better than 1.7 WAR. If Feliz ends up as the set-up man to Felipe Rivero, he might be able to do better than 1.0 WAR. If Crick pitches out of the major-league bullpen all year, he has a chance to finish above his projected 0.0 WAR.
By trading three players for five players, the Pirates also added depth. Even if a team has players that outperform their projections, things like injuries and other absences can bring them right back down to average.
But the Pirates have surprising amount of depth right now. There are five players battling for one bench spot in Bryce Brentz, Jordan Luplow, Max Moroff, Daniel Nava and Jose Osuna, and at least eight relievers battling for a couple of spots.
Even if they’re just replacement-level players, that’s a lot of bodies to burn through before the Pirates find themselves having to send out players with negative value.
“We think we’ve got depth,” Huntington said. “We think we’ve got upside with the young players. We think we’ve got some veterans that are capable of bounce-backs and would be guys that we would have targeted if they were with other organizations. Some guys that we have targeted. … Now, we need to go make it happen.”
